tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19634884457544564762024-03-16T15:08:26.171+08:00H@rryの投资笔记本本BLOG的投资分析以及资讯分享,纯属本人个人意见和观点。
在买进一家公司的股份前,请先做功课并了解该公司,任何人因看此文章而造成任何投资损失,本人恕不负责。切记,买卖自负!H@rryhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05027352948099378525noreply@blogger.comBlogger1416125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1963488445754456476.post-13735220509754829242018-01-03T12:58:00.001+08:002018-01-03T13:08:45.473+08:001415. 【华商曙光】WASEONG (5142) 浴火凤凰 ,单季营业额RM750 mil 突破历史新高!<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
<span style="font-size: large;">昨天花了不少时间做WASEONG的INFOGRAPHIC,一直到今天才搞定所有的设计。所以有不足之处,请各位读者多多见谅。截至今天12.30p.m.股价涨了9分,希望大家看了这份报告会更加了解华商这家公司的背景。WASEONG的股价在11月尾业绩出炉之后,隔天一度走高到52周新高的RM1.25, 过后的1个月股价就一路走低到昨天的RM1.09。</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">在众多的油气股当中,WASEONG手握的合约是最多的其中一家,而且债务一直在改善着。加上公司即将以RM155 mil卖出地皮,这些措施都可以帮助减低Gearing以及增强现金流。而且WASEONG的幕后大老板就是来自拿督陈振南为首的的陈氏家族。陈氏家族掌握的上市公司包括了IGB, GOLDIS以及IGBREIT。现在油气价格回稳,整个领域有复苏反转的迹象,相信管理层也会努力把生意做好以回馈股东们。</span></div>
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<br />H@rryhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05027352948099378525noreply@blogger.com37tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1963488445754456476.post-13551995234530268462017-12-08T12:37:00.002+08:002017-12-08T12:37:46.432+08:001414.【台湾联友】- FPI(7172)预计2018年2月派发【大红包】股息给股东们!<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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<br />H@rryhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05027352948099378525noreply@blogger.com36tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1963488445754456476.post-7383433657230983882017-09-26T20:23:00.000+08:002017-09-26T20:28:36.071+08:001413.【绝世霸龙】- SUPERLN(7235) 原料价格走高导致盈利YOY下滑41%以及【股东大会】摘要!<span style="font-size: large;">今天出席了SUPERLN第11届的股东大会,出席人数比去年多了1倍以上。根据以往的经验,假设小型股的股价今年比去年上涨多一倍,出席的股东也会增长一倍以上。在进入股东大会的摘要之前,先跟大家分析一下最新季度的业绩。</span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgWMWBWBRZIPCkBcZX9IlqTliupo9d61c2n5oTnGiYEp8w-zP4NkRyhECAL_9pJl8BUE_3mUC_sydT7SECyr3NbaoHKdMcCcWjO5UahokFwOra7pfTxRM-ny-NHaFJEqejI-9ZiCCoBYggu/s1600/SUPERLN+Q12.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="649" data-original-width="1029" height="402" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgWMWBWBRZIPCkBcZX9IlqTliupo9d61c2n5oTnGiYEp8w-zP4NkRyhECAL_9pJl8BUE_3mUC_sydT7SECyr3NbaoHKdMcCcWjO5UahokFwOra7pfTxRM-ny-NHaFJEqejI-9ZiCCoBYggu/s640/SUPERLN+Q12.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<span style="font-size: large;">SUPERLN的营业额RM26.326 mil(历史第二高)YOY进步了3%,不过Net Profit却大跌41%,净利是2年新低。</span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh81cElQ2zL1F5eTB9qdkh6seW7NyxqvuajQOyuL9KZuPRs0oOMS4Q2UaHprPBWHrJ8Ej66fvlBTv7i-qNsUhVkkh5g3h_f5ZtQC2PtHOY4Zecj2wHsC-QU35iMEdyRxhltA_lMm5ZhZ31B/s1600/SUPERLN+Q13.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="657" data-original-width="937" height="448" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh81cElQ2zL1F5eTB9qdkh6seW7NyxqvuajQOyuL9KZuPRs0oOMS4Q2UaHprPBWHrJ8Ej66fvlBTv7i-qNsUhVkkh5g3h_f5ZtQC2PtHOY4Zecj2wHsC-QU35iMEdyRxhltA_lMm5ZhZ31B/s640/SUPERLN+Q13.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<span style="font-size: large;">盈利下跌那么多是因为Cost of sales跟去年同期相比增加了RM3.5 mil,这是导致PBT下滑的主要原因。这种情况跟EVERGRN非常相似,这个季度很多公司的业绩都是因为原料的价格走高而拉低了盈利。</span><br />
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<span style="font-size: large;">管理层在今天的股东大会也提到了原料价格的问题,待会股东大会的摘要会跟大家提到。</span><span style="font-size: large;">Balance sheet的话,公司的现在的Net Cash处于RM15.864 mil。处于健康水平,足够支撑越南建设新厂的开销 - USD 4 mil。公司在越南的新厂 - FACTORY 4 预计FY2019会运作,管理层说大概会增加20%左右的产能。</span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgz7WkJxLcOBwb4I6ql8FectvTxQ7RUXoURw3BmH082HZfVMGSUr4NhSoFXfzWohglt64g-F6jCS310Ia13Jq327-qnKlgtiAhmNpF4ofMTE-pMhcs_yIzo1vAeodsZXUQN4f9qIE7YB4bk/s1600/superln18Q1.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="482" data-original-width="885" height="348" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgz7WkJxLcOBwb4I6ql8FectvTxQ7RUXoURw3BmH082HZfVMGSUr4NhSoFXfzWohglt64g-F6jCS310Ia13Jq327-qnKlgtiAhmNpF4ofMTE-pMhcs_yIzo1vAeodsZXUQN4f9qIE7YB4bk/s640/superln18Q1.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<span style="font-size: large;">从全年盈利的角度来看,SUPERLN的全年盈利从上个季度的RM23.714 mil下滑到RM21.23 mil,下滑大约10.5%。笔者常常说盈利决定股价,全年盈利下滑10.5%,那么股价也有可能会如此。</span><span style="font-size: large;">今天的股价闭市RM2.76, 下跌10.5%的话,股价是有可能去到RM2.48的。不过市场通常都会过度反应,跌到更低也是有可能的。</span><br />
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<span style="font-size: large;">SUPERLN的季度报告非常简单明了,管理层解释盈利下滑主要是因为原料的价格走高(COS增加RM3.5 mil),美金下滑(RM0.2 mil Forex Losses</span><span style="font-size: large;">)以及出口的需求走低。</span><br />
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<span style="font-size: large;">从做生意的角度,有几样因素是不在管理层的掌控之下的,分别是:</span><br />
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<li><span style="font-size: large;">外汇的因素,美金的不是人力可以控制的</span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: large;">原料成本,整个领域都会受到牵连</span></li>
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<span style="font-size: large;">其实今天管理层Executive Director - Liu Han-Chao在回答某位股东(<b><i>股东的名字好像是Harry Teo</i></b>)问题时用英语说了以下这段话,</span><span style="font-size: large;">笔者翻译成华语。</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">“今年是最近几年最具有挑战的一年,因此未来会有许多困难要克服。”</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">相信今天有出席的股东们都有听到以上这句话。</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">笔者出席了AGM + EGM已经有三次,这次可以感觉到管理层没有像之前两次那么乐观。不过笔者还是给予他们高度的信任,因为今天他们回答以及对公司管理的方向都得到在场股东的高度认可。笔者在SUPERLN的身上看到了HARTA的影子,未来公司会如何,就让时间告诉股东们吧。</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: x-large;">真心那句话:</span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;">本身持有SUPERLN,明天股价下滑肯定会心疼。不过做生意肯定有起有落,只要公司走在对的大方向,一个季度的下滑并不能代表什么,长期持有不就是陪着公司绽放它的价值吗?</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">【好的管理层是一家公司的灵魂,主要灵魂还在,笔者相信未来公司还是会继续成长下去的。】</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: x-large;">股东大会摘要:</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">今天发问的股东超过10多个人,因此问题五花八门,跟去年相比也是不遑多让。因此笔者把一些重点摘要写出来,方便大家阅读:</span><br />
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<span style="font-size: large;">股 = 股东发问</span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;">管 = 管理层的回答</span><br />
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<span style="font-size: large;"><b>股:为什么今年的Operating Cash Flow减少了超过30%?</b></span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;">管:因为今年的Inventories相比去年增长了RM11.2 mil,主要是因为其中一个Raw Material的价格增长了许多。管理层预计未来还会继续上涨,因此买进了比较大量的原料以满足生产的需求。大家去看Annual Report的 Note 10, 原料从去年的RM5.133 mil增长到现在的RM14.41 mil。</span><br />
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<span style="font-size: large;">***原料价格增长导致Margin被拉低许多</span><br />
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<span style="font-size: large;"><b>股:仓库最新的进展如何,股东对这个仓库都有很大的期许,是不是仓库建设遇到了什么问题。</b></span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;">管:仓库在2月多开始使用,不过因为没有拿到CF,所以只能使用一半。其中一个原因是6月份马来年假期导致许多相关部门没有运作,不过管理层预计已经很接近拿到CF的阶段,希望FY18下半年可以贡献更多的营业额以及盈利。</span><br />
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<b style="font-size: x-large;">股:去年有说到公司努力获得美国相关部门的品质认证,可否告知最新的进展?</b><br />
<span style="font-size: large;">管:是的,我们已经拿到美国相关部门的认证以及许可。我们公司的产品已经可以出口到美国了,不过现在还在接洽着当地的分销商,毕竟他们现在都卖着我们竞争对手的产品。(股东们听了笑笑)</span><br />
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<span style="font-size: large;">根据笔者的了解,管理层花了2年多的时间才拿到美国方面的认证。这代表着他们的产品在未来可以出口到美国,不过应该需要几个季度之后才会看到成果。</span><br />
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<b style="font-size: x-large;">股:最近美金下滑,这对公司造成什么影响呢?</b><br />
<span style="font-size: large;">管:公司有75%的业务是出口,所以公司会因为美金走高而获益。不过公司的原料也是从外国进口,因此进口时也会用美金付账。</span><br />
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<span style="font-size: large;">而且公司过去几年的营业额增长不是单单靠外汇而是靠VOLUME的增长,这才是做生意的根本。也因为如此,公司兴建了新的仓库以及在越南建设新厂以继续壮大公司。</span><br />
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<b style="font-size: x-large;">股:请问刘女士今年犯下最大的错误是什么,如何去更正?</b><br />
<span style="font-size: large;">管:其实我每天都犯下很多小错误,我一时想不到是哪一些错误。不过最大的遗憾,因为也不能称之为错误,这是环境所导致。那就是新的仓库我本身预期是在6月可以拿到CF,那就可以快点让仓库全面运作。可是马来西亚的效率以及马来新年延迟了CF到手,不过我们希望是可以在近期拿到CF。</span><br />
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<span style="font-size: large;">刘女士以很幽默一段话来做结尾:至于我其余的小错误,你就放过我吧。全场股东爆笑。</span><br />
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<b style="font-size: x-large;">股:假设你要消灭你的竞争对手,你会消灭哪一家?</b><br />
<span style="font-size: large;">管:刘女士回答说,我从来没有想要消灭我的对手,每个人存在都会有他们的价值。有竞争才会有进步,而且这样人生才更加有趣不是吗?刘女士的回答让股东们感受到她对自己事业的热衷以及信心。</span><br />
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<span style="font-size: large;"><b>股:你觉得SUPERLN的两样竞争优势是什么?</b></span><span style="font-size: large;">管:无论是对我们的大/小客户,我们都给予最大的关注以及专业友善的服务。我们大部分的客户都是从以前就合作到现在,我们希望可以透过我们的专业态度留住老客户,减少客户的流失并提高客户忠诚度。</span><br />
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<span style="font-size: large;">此外,我觉得我们的的团队的以及公司的技术也是我们的优质,我们的团队会努力训练我们的客户如何卖出Superln的产品。让SUPERLN成长的同时,也让我们的客户可以跟着我么的脚步一起成长。</span><br />
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<span style="font-size: large;"><b>以上这段回答笔者给100个LIKES!!!!!</b></span><br />
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<b style="font-size: x-large;">股:为什么Q4的Margin比Q3下跌了那么多?</b><br />
<span style="font-size: large;">管:每个季度的Profit Margin都不尽相同,而且Q4传统上的Margin都会偏低。</span><br />
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<span style="font-size: large;">笔者个人Q4是FY的最后一个季度,因此公司有可能在这个季度派发花红给股东们。而且原料价格成本也是导致Margin走低的主要因素之一。</span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-size: large;">其余的问题大致上跟以上雷同,笔者也不能全部记得。</span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-size: large;">总结股东大会:</span><br />
<br />
<ul>
<li><span style="font-size: large;">最新季度的营业额是历史第2高,而且这是在仓库没有完全运作的情况下获得。预计FY2018下半年仓库获得CF之后,营业额以及效率都会获得改善。</span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: large;">原料的价格是现在最大的挑战,管理层是专业人士,这就交给他们去解决吧。</span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: large;">开发美国新市场以及越南新厂(预计FY2019完成)会是未来长期的利好因素,不过这都需要时间。</span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: large;">短期SUPERLN会有很大的卖压,公司要恢复到之前的巅峰盈利应该需要几个季度的调整。</span></li>
</ul>
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<span style="font-size: large;">有做生意的人都知道,盈利不可能每个季度的都只起不跌,有起有落才是现实世界,盈利每个季度都只起不跌那叫童话故事。公司的基本面和价值都没有太大的变质,本钱很低的朋友可能会选择卖出先套利。而笔者是去年买进的,因此在下个季度出炉前都会继续持有下去,毕竟公司又不是亏钱。</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-size: large;">而且管理层热诚的态度以及专业很让人信服,就看看他们如何去扭转乾坤吧。或许需要2 - 3个季度的时间,但是投资不就是需要时间让公司成长吗?共勉之。</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: x-large;">以上纯属分享,买卖请自负。</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">Harryt30</span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;">19.50p.m.</span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;">2017.09.26</span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span>H@rryhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05027352948099378525noreply@blogger.com7tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1963488445754456476.post-29048494850422892162017-09-13T16:24:00.004+08:002017-09-13T16:31:31.087+08:001412. 【美佳第一】- MFCB(3069) 业绩盈利蒸蒸日上,寮国Don Sahong水坝工程进展乐观!<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhR3sJpb2g6I7GJKvhb5kXhTUFe_V3ybk_CIrIAvIyctXC8vq1OYASDptaLBsWMrijM2_OiZwAVyr8RE_iW9YmmQM-qOjzCiClAZ0yxc1nvAfxUjVlUGLG21xb3Hz0UwBqebL53ynW6F6nj/s1600/1.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="521" data-original-width="1028" height="324" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhR3sJpb2g6I7GJKvhb5kXhTUFe_V3ybk_CIrIAvIyctXC8vq1OYASDptaLBsWMrijM2_OiZwAVyr8RE_iW9YmmQM-qOjzCiClAZ0yxc1nvAfxUjVlUGLG21xb3Hz0UwBqebL53ynW6F6nj/s640/1.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<span style="font-size: large;"><span style="line-height: 107%;">MFCB (3069) </span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">在8月份交出了非常亮眼的业绩,营业额以及盈利都是历史新高。不过这个季度的</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">Net Profit Margin</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">比去年同期下滑了</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">1.6%</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">,主要的原因如下:</span></span><br />
<br />
<ul>
<li><span style="font-family: "simsun"; font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: "calibri" , sans-serif; line-height: 107%;">ESOS EXPENSE = RM8.835 mil</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="line-height: 107%;">,这去年同期的</span><span style="font-family: "calibri" , sans-serif; line-height: 107%;">RM1.466 mil</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="line-height: 107%;">多了足足</span><span style="font-family: "calibri" , sans-serif; line-height: 107%;">502.7%</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="line-height: 107%;">,也比上个季度的</span><span style="font-family: "calibri" , sans-serif; line-height: 107%;">RM5.147 mil</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="line-height: 107%;">多了</span><span style="font-family: "calibri" , sans-serif; line-height: 107%;">71.7%</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="line-height: 107%;">。</span></span></li>
<li><span style="font-family: "simsun"; font-size: large;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="line-height: 107%;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="line-height: 107%;">外汇盈利<span lang="ZH-CN" style="line-height: 19.9733px;"><span style="font-family: "calibri" , sans-serif; line-height: 19.9733px;">RM1.648 mil,</span></span>比去年同期的</span><span style="font-family: "calibri" , sans-serif; line-height: 107%;">RM4.781 mil</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="line-height: 107%;">下滑了</span><span style="font-family: "calibri" , sans-serif; line-height: 107%;">65.5%</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="line-height: 107%;">。</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "calibri" , sans-serif; line-height: 107%;"> </span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="line-height: 107%;">公司不少资产以美金结算,因此美金下跌导致外汇进账减少。</span></span></span></li>
</ul>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">两个季度</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">RM13.982 mil</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">的</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">ESOS</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">开销几乎占了</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">Profit Before Tax</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">的</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">10%<span style="font-family: "simsun";">。往好的方面想,假设撇除ESOS的话,MFCB的Core Operating Profit其实是很客观的。只要</span></span></span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; font-size: large; line-height: 107%;">未来两个季度的</span><span style="font-size: large; line-height: 107%;">ESOS </span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; font-size: large; line-height: 107%;">开销可以降低,这足以升公司未来的</span><span style="font-size: large; line-height: 107%;">Margin</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; font-size: large; line-height: 107%;">。</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">上图是<span style="line-height: 107%;">MFCB</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">的各大部门的营业额以及盈利的图表,</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">Power Division</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">的贡献最大,紧接着是</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">Resources</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">以及产业。</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">Resource</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">的盈利贡献在最近一年半非常稳健的成长着,最新季度的营业额以及盈利都是近年新高,预计下半年会继续贡献不错的盈利。</span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;"><br /></span></span>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">不过产业部门的表现就非常不理想,无论是营业额或者盈利都大幅度的滑落,这也符合现在产业领域的走势。</span></span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; font-size: large; line-height: 107%;">因此</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; font-size: large; line-height: 107%;">包含了</span><span style="font-size: large; line-height: 107%;">Don Sahong Hydropower Project的</span><span style="font-size: large;">Power Division</span><span style="font-size: large;"> </span><span style="font-family: "simsun"; font-size: large;">才是今年成长最大的推动器。</span></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg0upPOcz2Dg_Y2bOrl7B80654qHlCWJkaGgaD9sqYJKleAe_HGbh6lifXKMDbGsoXp59209PVqnLJ_Em0xGUgtgjNFAuYNZvRStCfXxFI9oP80-WGUPmtJoYxqEyy6eFqEL2x9pmKUHsD0/s1600/3.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="277" data-original-width="574" height="308" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg0upPOcz2Dg_Y2bOrl7B80654qHlCWJkaGgaD9sqYJKleAe_HGbh6lifXKMDbGsoXp59209PVqnLJ_Em0xGUgtgjNFAuYNZvRStCfXxFI9oP80-WGUPmtJoYxqEyy6eFqEL2x9pmKUHsD0/s640/3.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; font-size: large; line-height: 107%;">在最新的季度当中,单单是</span><span style="font-size: large; line-height: 107%;">Don Sahong</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; font-size: large; line-height: 107%;">的贡献就占了</span><span style="font-size: large; line-height: 107%;">PBT</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; font-size: large; line-height: 107%;">的三分之二。而且可以很明显看到前期的基建工程完成之后,最近两个季度的进度非常迅速,最新季度完成了</span><span style="font-size: large; line-height: 107%;">7.9%</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; font-size: large; line-height: 107%;">的进度,是近开工以来完成最快的一个季度。</span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi3D6HjCGfzm4xDjUPstX6Bhre7_AMGiUkqFMXtzZOjme552JSsHa5J4CtS4ykJjJQ6cAMcKCG-oF4cytfieg0J9tkr9YSbVgybmu3w93tRXa0TPr5-8a-6QJTTZfjqJLY0pycRyhSgdF24/s1600/4.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="554" data-original-width="922" height="384" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi3D6HjCGfzm4xDjUPstX6Bhre7_AMGiUkqFMXtzZOjme552JSsHa5J4CtS4ykJjJQ6cAMcKCG-oF4cytfieg0J9tkr9YSbVgybmu3w93tRXa0TPr5-8a-6QJTTZfjqJLY0pycRyhSgdF24/s640/4.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<span style="font-size: large;"><span style="line-height: 107%;">5</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">月开始进入雨季,这导致</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">Q3</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">的进度通常会放慢,</span></span><span style="font-family: "simsun"; font-size: large;">去年Q3的进度是比Q2下滑了0.5%的。</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; font-size: large; line-height: 107%;">不过</span><span style="font-size: large; line-height: 107%;">11</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; font-size: large; line-height: 107%;">月雨季结束之后,进度就会加速。截至</span><span style="font-size: large; line-height: 107%;">17Q2</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; font-size: large; line-height: 107%;">的完成进度是</span><span style="font-size: large; line-height: 107%;">31%</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; font-size: large; line-height: 107%;">,上半年完成了</span><span style="font-size: large; line-height: 107%;">14.4%</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; font-size: large; line-height: 107%;">,管理层预计年底进度可以去到</span><span style="font-size: large; line-height: 107%;">45 – 50%</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; font-size: large; line-height: 107%;">之间。因此用保守的方式计算,下半年完成</span><span style="font-size: large; line-height: 107%;">15%</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; font-size: large; line-height: 107%;">的话,营业额将会比上半年更为出色。</span><br />
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">此外,</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">DON SAHONG</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">的工程耗资</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">USD 417 mil</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">,公司除了在2016年透过Right Issue筹集了RM243.735 mil。MFCB将会在</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">17Q3</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">签下</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">USD 150 mil</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">的</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">syndicated loan</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">来完成寮国的工程。而且公司多次表示,现在的进度都在掌握之中,公司有把握在</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">2019</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">年底完工。</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="line-height: 107%;">而且管理层估计未来正式投运之后,这将可以为公司每年带来USD 1亿2000万美元(约RM504 mil)的营收。</span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">中国的</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">Power Plant</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">未来几个季度表现会保持疲软</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">,公司会尽力去经营以避免情况恶化。而</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">TAWAU</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">的</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">Power Plant</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">会在</span><span style="line-height: 107%;"> 2 December 2017</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">到期,不过公司正在和</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">Energy Commission of
Malaysia</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">洽谈着,管理层保持正面的态度看待续约的事项。假设续约不成功,</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">Q4</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">的贡献将会下滑,因为只能贡献</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">2</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">个月的盈利。</span></span></div>
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<span style="line-height: 107%;"><span style="font-size: large;"><b>RESOURCE DIVISION:</b><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">公司在过去</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">3</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">年投入了</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">RM78 mil</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">在矿资源开发,</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">2017</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">其中一个新产线完工,每日的产量增加</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">400 tonnes</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">。这是推动营业额从</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">Q1</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">的</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">RM25 mil</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">上升到</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">RM29.7 mil</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">的主因。而且公司第三期的扩张计划也在进行着,预计</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">2018</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">年底将会完工。</span><span style="line-height: 107%;"><o:p></o:p></span></span><br />
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<span style="line-height: 107%;"><span style="font-size: large;"><b>PROPERTY DIVISION:</b><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;"><span style="font-size: large;">产业部门的贡献其实并不显著,公司预计未来会稳定贡献盈利,不过数额不会太大。</span></span><b><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span style="line-height: 107%;">MFCB</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">的盈利从</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">15Q1</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">开始就保持着增长的趋势,全年盈利在</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">1</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">年半涨了一倍。未来</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">2</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">年的主要成长推动器将会是寮国水坝工程以及矿资源开发。公司的股价在</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">5</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">月份一度冲上</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">RM4</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">的巅峰,不过股价却在盈利新高的情况下在</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">3</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">个月下滑了</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">10%++</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">。最新季度的全年盈利比上个季度增长了接近</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">10%</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">,因此股价在未来再度突破RM4以上并非难事。</span></span><br />
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">此外,公司在今年的股东大会表示,公司早前于柬埔寨收购面积9477公顷的地库将充作叶子种植园地,料未来可为公司贡献较长期的盈利。</span></span></div>
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<span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; font-size: large; line-height: 25.68px;">股价也回调了</span><span style="font-size: large; line-height: 25.68px;">3</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; font-size: large; line-height: 25.68px;">个多月,</span><span style="font-size: large;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">以现在</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">RM3.71</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">的价格来看,PE只有9.62,过去一年股价平均PE都保持在PE 10.5或以上,因此风险偏低。</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">大众银行给的</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">Target Price</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">是</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">RM4.48</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">,长期的话TP是可以达到的,只不过需要更多的耐心以及时间等待。</span></span><b><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p></o:p></span></b><br />
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<span style="font-size: medium;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; font-size: x-large; line-height: 107%;"><b>以上纯属分享,买卖请自负。</b></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">Harryt30</span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">2017.09.13</span></span></div>
H@rryhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05027352948099378525noreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1963488445754456476.post-15865257821228688792017-09-01T20:50:00.003+08:002017-09-01T21:09:42.309+08:001411.【品牌定位】- OLDTOWN(5201) 进军中国展宏图,现金满满股息厚!<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
<span style="font-size: large;">品牌定位对一家公司是非常重要的,假设用户认可/习惯了一个品牌的存在,这就会建立了Brand Royalty。在大马股市,笔者认为其中5家公司的品牌做的很棒。</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">1. AIRAISA - Everyone can fly的口号已经享誉全球,大马上市公司中品牌最为人熟知的非亚航莫属。而且它已经连续9年获得全球最佳廉价航空的头衔,扩张的速度傲视整个航空领域。</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">2. ECOWRD - </span><span style="font-size: large;">丹斯里刘启盛</span><span style="font-size: large;">名人的效应不可小视,绿盛世在短短的4年多强势崛起,在产业领域里杀出一条血路。</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">3. PADINI - 平民的价格深入民心,只要有Mega Sales的时候就可以看到【妮妮】人山人海。现在开始进军海外,稳定的成长不容忽视。</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">4. SUNWAY - 想到SUNWAY就会想到SUNWAY PYRAMID的狮子头,由</span><span style="font-size: large;">丹斯里谢富年博士创办的双威集团已经从当初的产业领域辐射到建筑,购物商场,医疗,旅游,教育等领域。而且在各别领域都占有一席之地,未来更有可能进军科技领域,成为多元化的大型企业。</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">5. OLDTOWN - 一家从1999年开始营运的IPOH公司,在18年的时间里发展到今天市值RM1,241 mil的规模。咖啡产品出口到17个国家,品牌享誉亚太地区。而近几年也在努力进军澳洲,纽西兰,加南大,英国以及美国等西方国家。截至2017年3月份,OLDTOWN旧街场的白咖啡分别在马来西亚(37%),新加坡(41%)以及香港(50%)稳居龙头宝座。</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">今天要跟大家分享的公司就是OLDTOWN(5201) - 旧街场,希望透过以下的资料让大家有更深的了解。公司现在的PE = 19.51到底是贵还是便宜呢,阅读之后你就会知道。</span></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg4ae5SJwLV3jIx0CO3DWhWJYRFrfzwbyz7wuYoa2TfBwtsNWr6yEyjLHS4R29V7SmfewAOB_aW6Zns98BpHPn6D_LqS35UEzxPlUddJtqyJa0_v9A-x-Sbug0x_VD1qK2IKB8QV5iZP4fd/s1600/1.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="597" data-original-width="1156" height="330" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg4ae5SJwLV3jIx0CO3DWhWJYRFrfzwbyz7wuYoa2TfBwtsNWr6yEyjLHS4R29V7SmfewAOB_aW6Zns98BpHPn6D_LqS35UEzxPlUddJtqyJa0_v9A-x-Sbug0x_VD1qK2IKB8QV5iZP4fd/s640/1.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<span style="font-size: large;">OLDTOWN在最新季度的营业额RM109.304 mil是历史第二高,主要贡献来自Manufacturing of Beverage。去年17Q3的业务以及盈利可以突破新高,中国淘宝的“双十一”居功不小,所以Net Profit Margin也攀升到21.03%的新高。</span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj0FoZtZ4RIDgzZS7veABwPVgeYkS1QSNSaMXiyQVPhSb-dZJICJlx3FEf9n7-QBGGAIoGGEiNrAJwbm2nxgQhyx-b6IBvasTy721VzWUJkrJFqaK6mpvXrq1ynLGxtLFahjEsDNToszjt0/s1600/2.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="463" data-original-width="871" height="340" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj0FoZtZ4RIDgzZS7veABwPVgeYkS1QSNSaMXiyQVPhSb-dZJICJlx3FEf9n7-QBGGAIoGGEiNrAJwbm2nxgQhyx-b6IBvasTy721VzWUJkrJFqaK6mpvXrq1ynLGxtLFahjEsDNToszjt0/s640/2.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<span style="font-size: large;">公司的Net Profit Margin已经连续3年保持增长,FY2017的营业额更是首次突破历史新高的RM425.2 mil。公司过去几年在海外不停的打响品牌以及积极进军中国市场,长期的成长是值得期待的。</span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg8vknP7ng6WIv6DY0iKTH-mi6ScXsicl22cwGFD8q51QR4LRRJIDIpijMiopxgHBIKWvE5JV7xSPJatBVE6wDGJdgQTXl6Rhd4tE_juCrIIBCf6aYBnedUr9bI0uFSlah02bZgKBHojtBL/s1600/3.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="651" data-original-width="1065" height="390" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg8vknP7ng6WIv6DY0iKTH-mi6ScXsicl22cwGFD8q51QR4LRRJIDIpijMiopxgHBIKWvE5JV7xSPJatBVE6wDGJdgQTXl6Rhd4tE_juCrIIBCf6aYBnedUr9bI0uFSlah02bZgKBHojtBL/s640/3.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<span style="font-size: large;">OLDTOWN过去几年的现金流不断在提升着,最新一个季度的Net Cash已经达到了RM200.88 mil的历史新高。现金增长得那么夸张是因为公司套现手上的Treasury Shares,从中获得了RM31.161 mil的现金。</span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiwD0lRcm_Yet0VGmxGfzVex9YwPmov0mGX7N379FuPaDokvHc8OM1-dAu8IZ6k8-z-giOJJXtbNiAcUIH9K27jCRKfNsOAzvOO0-l0nKHCCc4qTcogaJqPz3MwQBpSfQFu4jwX6nT1X0_m/s1600/dddd.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="610" data-original-width="910" height="428" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiwD0lRcm_Yet0VGmxGfzVex9YwPmov0mGX7N379FuPaDokvHc8OM1-dAu8IZ6k8-z-giOJJXtbNiAcUIH9K27jCRKfNsOAzvOO0-l0nKHCCc4qTcogaJqPz3MwQBpSfQFu4jwX6nT1X0_m/s640/dddd.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<span style="font-size: large;">OLDTOWN在FY2017的Net Profit以及现金都处于历史新高,因此公司派发股息也变得更加大方。FY17公司派发了RM45.6 mil的股息,比FY16的RM40.63 mil增长了RM mil,相等于每股获得10分的股息。</span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiAUUDgkP4gB4yGN011hB8AJ0vC8vjpdm4IQ-f_ROLOJlRIk_W9ptqRCvsv11KhZJkzVCL8No3cvHU0tddpljXis8xUTkm_NzRbGXN4UqjMM930RjenWtWt7FuK_l4rCfLh_AkOEZsmSzPU/s1600/5.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="432" data-original-width="778" height="354" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiAUUDgkP4gB4yGN011hB8AJ0vC8vjpdm4IQ-f_ROLOJlRIk_W9ptqRCvsv11KhZJkzVCL8No3cvHU0tddpljXis8xUTkm_NzRbGXN4UqjMM930RjenWtWt7FuK_l4rCfLh_AkOEZsmSzPU/s640/5.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<span style="font-size: large;">以上是OLDTOWN全年盈利的变化,公司在FY17Q3达到历史新高的全年盈利RM69.127 mil。因为当时有淘宝【双十一】的加持,所以盈利才能站上巅峰。</span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEikg5Hg9__nFBtyTuQrsSPeXuZhrAnYRF216nL-08IoeIMNny68hjKT04tLqmIMP4oXeedlAWDdaxSTQHWyrcGHVaGR4lCmPZ19e9lxmZuIXdZuVTxuj5_oyeHayN5XzGzYh7BTWW-9qAbF/s1600/9.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="430" data-original-width="848" height="324" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEikg5Hg9__nFBtyTuQrsSPeXuZhrAnYRF216nL-08IoeIMNny68hjKT04tLqmIMP4oXeedlAWDdaxSTQHWyrcGHVaGR4lCmPZ19e9lxmZuIXdZuVTxuj5_oyeHayN5XzGzYh7BTWW-9qAbF/s640/9.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<span style="font-size: large;">不过在17Q4的时候公司蒙受了RM4.8 mil的overdue trade receivable,导致盈利重挫,YOY下滑46%。当时候股价一度下滑到RM2.50, 从巅峰下跌超过25%。虽然如此,全年盈利还是站上历史新高的RM60.767 mil,主要是因为更高的出口销售以及外汇盈利。</span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiuodhbFSK8yLKl5hMvmHxOAzAicLSfcFTSwg44OzMsC2MyNpn9Ra5qtQ008UDwBxoiEzdmq5xpf6JZlFUlmSYimyJg79gkCv0tPHixosQD7p8GQocj5s30Ss6-aMk-NXaojLMvlrY6u2Qe/s1600/6.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="424" data-original-width="437" height="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiuodhbFSK8yLKl5hMvmHxOAzAicLSfcFTSwg44OzMsC2MyNpn9Ra5qtQ008UDwBxoiEzdmq5xpf6JZlFUlmSYimyJg79gkCv0tPHixosQD7p8GQocj5s30Ss6-aMk-NXaojLMvlrY6u2Qe/s640/6.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<span style="font-size: large;">OLDTOWN的年报提到公司会积极投入CAPEX,自动化生产线已增加效率并减低成本。此外,公司会继续投入更多的资金在广告以打响公司的品牌。</span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEih5mnzzY7nbtju_WW1W-iv4cgBX_Q6CYKkN0DyTUv5BJnWmqqkJC6H3hlfbp-HgRMH7W-2qZDmTnwOAdoaeJiiq8ZVSH2ONyVwb3SHxDiHNcK9rNzVrqHRIdt7tM1wJvmA1YO8qvorV6QX/s1600/7.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="427" data-original-width="901" height="302" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEih5mnzzY7nbtju_WW1W-iv4cgBX_Q6CYKkN0DyTUv5BJnWmqqkJC6H3hlfbp-HgRMH7W-2qZDmTnwOAdoaeJiiq8ZVSH2ONyVwb3SHxDiHNcK9rNzVrqHRIdt7tM1wJvmA1YO8qvorV6QX/s640/7.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<span style="font-size: large;">上图是OLDTOWN主要的业务,而当中最赚钱的就是Manufacturing of Coffee & Others Beverages。</span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiDQDzAs2x98MxT2pj1bMNBJNkMokbfsvNxEmqQwYQocJwoazMZJvHhwsYYixiLmUwhdMHWaGtsNKYrtYZORcNq5uqTkwU5tclQoFXMth-vt7iqq1XheQG3InUi36YlLShaI58W3S6R6ZwU/s1600/8.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="899" data-original-width="875" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiDQDzAs2x98MxT2pj1bMNBJNkMokbfsvNxEmqQwYQocJwoazMZJvHhwsYYixiLmUwhdMHWaGtsNKYrtYZORcNq5uqTkwU5tclQoFXMth-vt7iqq1XheQG3InUi36YlLShaI58W3S6R6ZwU/s640/8.png" width="622" /></a></div>
<span style="font-size: large;">虽然FMGC在大马的销售有所下滑,但是海外的市场带动了整体的成长,FMGC的出口销售在FY17成长了30%之多。现在公司在大马,新加坡以及香港是白咖啡市场的龙头老大。</span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiBoz4jmyXEQwK14h0Hk_sfFayseDgRNzUa40X2Cm8lUy4Q5VxOjCj3dNWsDMlKb1WdE8JLpfu2-F3EoSTSwzNRYSGIhPTBdPH-v_K44vDxYxJuV2AuAGH6_HmPP7TNOhnG3Gzu2ekN_wbg/s1600/4331.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="627" data-original-width="1157" height="346" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiBoz4jmyXEQwK14h0Hk_sfFayseDgRNzUa40X2Cm8lUy4Q5VxOjCj3dNWsDMlKb1WdE8JLpfu2-F3EoSTSwzNRYSGIhPTBdPH-v_K44vDxYxJuV2AuAGH6_HmPP7TNOhnG3Gzu2ekN_wbg/s640/4331.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<span style="font-size: large;">以上是OLDTOWN的FMGC <b>(制造咖啡销售) </b>业务的数据,FMGC的营业额首次在FY16Q3突破RM50 mil大关,过后再FY17Q3继续突破RM66.517 mil的历史新高。这些主要归功于海外市场的贡献,尤其是中国等大中华地区。</span><br />
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<span style="font-size: large;">最新季度的盈利当中有RM3.06 mil是来自于上个季度的烂账被收回。假设撇除RM3.06 mil,这个季度的盈利按年是下滑的。OLDTOWN现在的挑战是咖啡分行的Net Profit Margin一直下滑,主要是因为原料价格走高,薪金的增加以及消费情绪的走低。</span><br />
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<span style="font-size: large;">OLDTOWN在全球有231家的分行,未来在中国福建以及缅甸都会有新分行。OLDTOWN分行主要是为了帮OLDTOWN建立品牌,不过盈利贡献主要还是来自于制造咖啡销售。FY2017的Profit Before Tax是RM80.197 mil,但是其中的RM63.063 mil是来自FMGC,这占了接近80%的PBT。</span><br />
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<span style="font-size: large;">由于现在的环境深具挑战,OLDTOWN其实关掉了几家营运不当的分行,其中一家就是笔者常常去的,坐落在</span><span style="font-size: large;">Dataran Segar, </span><span style="font-size: large;">Lukut, Negeri Sembilan。</span><br />
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<span style="font-size: large;">所以OLDTOWN现在主要的策略是继续把分行开到世界各地,过后积极打开新的市场以提高海外的销售。传统上下半年是营业额贡献会比较强,因为【双十一】就是在Q3的11月份。而且公司一直努力在中国扎根,加上中国市场对咖啡的需求十分庞大,只要打下更大的中国市场,OLDTOWN的【中国梦】将会带来更大的效益。</span><br />
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<span style="font-size: large;">OLDTOWN现在手上有高达RM200 mil的净现金,进可攻,退可守。所以OLDTOWN是笔者心目中优质的【10% +5%】高股息股,10%代表着【资金增长】,5%代表着股息收入。</span><br />
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<span style="font-size: large;">现在接近20的PE不见得便宜,但是以长期的角度来看,OLDTOWN跟PADINI的性质是一样的。就算1年里会有1 - 2个季度有所滑落,整体全年的盈利还是会保持稳定的成长。从上市至今,OLDTOWN平均每年都有着15%以上的复利,是一家赚多派多股息的奶牛股。</span><br />
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<span style="font-size: large;">做生意有起有落,公司业绩不佳的时候股价必定会随之滑落。底部买进可获得丰厚的股息,等到市场过热的时候适时套利,这就是所谓的【低买高卖】。OLDTOWN不是一家会【爆发】的公司,但是它的生意模式以及前景可以推动它未来每年保持Double Digits Growth。</span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span><span style="font-size: large;">以上纯属分享,买卖请自负。<br /><br /></span>
<span style="font-size: large;">Harryt30</span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;">19.50p.m</span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;">2017.09.01</span>H@rryhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05027352948099378525noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1963488445754456476.post-91450606267948434642017-08-29T20:31:00.002+08:002017-08-29T20:56:29.637+08:001410.【一个亚航】- AIRASIA(5099)季度营业额突破历史新高,Net Profit按年下滑57%。派发12仙股息,印尼亚航筹备上市!<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhSXXuV1UPJGCy2FOXhHQ72JnPH_KqGDojmFVgMPvb-MbDalO8IXNrNAuX_E_4QFyxw_k7AbUhhXhlweE39Da79Kdl1_SBjIS0a-xKXum14wiKSCp-hIVoH9f3bMrN-GIzTb0IogaZX7pI9/s1600/1.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em; text-align: center;"><img border="0" data-original-height="595" data-original-width="1156" height="328" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhSXXuV1UPJGCy2FOXhHQ72JnPH_KqGDojmFVgMPvb-MbDalO8IXNrNAuX_E_4QFyxw_k7AbUhhXhlweE39Da79Kdl1_SBjIS0a-xKXum14wiKSCp-hIVoH9f3bMrN-GIzTb0IogaZX7pI9/s640/1.png" width="640" /></a><br />
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<span style="font-size: large;">AIRASIA(5099)公布了历史新高的营业额 - RM2,378 mil,但是盈利却猛挫了59%。主要原因是因为印尼以及菲律宾业务整合开销冲击,此外还有RM212 mil的一次过延递税务收费,不过由RM44 mil的流动税务入账抵消。</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><b>公司在业绩出炉后宣布停牌,主要是公布了两个公告。</b></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">- 宣布展开内部重组,AIRASIA将会从大马股市除牌,过后建议成立一家新的投资控股空司。</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">- AIRASIA INVESTMENT LIMITED以及印尼的FNP将注入资产并入主上市公司PT Rimau Multi Putra Pratama TBK ("RMPP"),借此把IAA推上市</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">在深入探讨以上的重组以及印尼上市之前,我们先看看AIRASIA这次业绩的表现。</span></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg4yxQjDNgRh-6vPprFg9fmLgDpkIqETPr1_5Kz11KfobsnUQYAir7IEoK8_03yCs1zyNSUd8bi0y9HtpNziDCzxYjffgtAfnMy8xCfmdCuix7mbj_LfZh_wIp_BPNL2vObNIi0ZT05RVb1/s1600/10.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="437" data-original-width="871" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg4yxQjDNgRh-6vPprFg9fmLgDpkIqETPr1_5Kz11KfobsnUQYAir7IEoK8_03yCs1zyNSUd8bi0y9HtpNziDCzxYjffgtAfnMy8xCfmdCuix7mbj_LfZh_wIp_BPNL2vObNIi0ZT05RVb1/s640/10.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<span style="font-size: large;">AIRASIA的营业额虽然屡破新高,但是Net Profit却下滑许多。主要是因为RM318 mil的Defferred Taxation导致。</span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhPr9Qs0ag0ALU6VezgLX-BLLsJ8DjvQQu9Oh0CpY9NE2tc8ESYEQ5ymaOszjKcvvx9yKyZJ_sDto2gxF2Ox27ji_bMyBRIwFL2-W9N7YwH-koDzbsG96g0BKH3sSRV-O_Lc6exQjy4FqYL/s1600/0.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="466" data-original-width="760" height="392" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhPr9Qs0ag0ALU6VezgLX-BLLsJ8DjvQQu9Oh0CpY9NE2tc8ESYEQ5ymaOszjKcvvx9yKyZJ_sDto2gxF2Ox27ji_bMyBRIwFL2-W9N7YwH-koDzbsG96g0BKH3sSRV-O_Lc6exQjy4FqYL/s640/0.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<span style="font-size: large;">从上图我们可以看到,这个季度的飞机原油开销比去年增加了RM322 mil。主要是因为航班增加以及油价上涨,不过这都是处于良好的范围。</span><br />
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<span style="font-size: large;">而且上半年来看,Net Operating Profit只比去年同期的RM689 mil下滑了RM26.4 mil左右。</span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjRbbaWYRSfRbd2MfemXpiHg_2czjOlr-r8fwZ5OxcuvbhzDQFK7aG3p-yzE0-23rJQlH_O9z7DT7ebsdPgU9L1EjJVI2-t3zUb9XENwvzss4JaBhM4-SVoN1hD2-YdUQCHTc51lWXze7Os/s1600/0+-+Copy.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="471" data-original-width="749" height="402" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjRbbaWYRSfRbd2MfemXpiHg_2czjOlr-r8fwZ5OxcuvbhzDQFK7aG3p-yzE0-23rJQlH_O9z7DT7ebsdPgU9L1EjJVI2-t3zUb9XENwvzss4JaBhM4-SVoN1hD2-YdUQCHTc51lWXze7Os/s640/0+-+Copy.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">而公司在扣除了Finance Income以及cost,外汇盈利以及Derivatives loss之后,Profit Before Tax = RM386.8 mil,比去年同期进步了52%。不过在扣除了Deferred Taxation之后,Net Profit只有RM139.88 mil。</span><br />
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<span style="font-size: large;">这个季度母公司只分到了RM92.447 mil,Non Controlling interest有RM47.433 mil,最终的EPS = 2.8分。</span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiRAqkZfrOtGww6j_43I6LFXSgZEaVistKufiKp7AbI4j8O1YAY_xiuz6ME9ohemjBw67qdEHHIJ8I9uahepUULMMj2DdV7ECdrampFwKtMXfqq_HG317UsJudGyjvihd7RpcaTHAFuHgty/s1600/123.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="449" data-original-width="782" height="366" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiRAqkZfrOtGww6j_43I6LFXSgZEaVistKufiKp7AbI4j8O1YAY_xiuz6ME9ohemjBw67qdEHHIJ8I9uahepUULMMj2DdV7ECdrampFwKtMXfqq_HG317UsJudGyjvihd7RpcaTHAFuHgty/s640/123.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<span style="font-size: large;">晚上7点钟的时候,出现amendment,笔者就觉得奇怪,做么Non control interest分到那么多,最新的Net Profit变成了RM139.88 mil。因此盈利从2.8分增长到4.4分,而盈利从按年下滑73%变成下滑59%。这今天也发生在TONGHER的身上,盈利从YOY下滑变成YOY上涨!</span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhvSgsPO5IgzL_tYdUz-pO2d4LXCXjZZDf8K1PBEYAQvUKxqoHiyvHroycX650Z3uzNmLBw9hScSRKo7zWtD7OQX6N7p6T_BaY8sCTJ3aa6u-fqCjoR-ZOZh_gD9-zLq92h_pAhEUjOp5TJ/s1600/5.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="573" data-original-width="871" height="420" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhvSgsPO5IgzL_tYdUz-pO2d4LXCXjZZDf8K1PBEYAQvUKxqoHiyvHroycX650Z3uzNmLBw9hScSRKo7zWtD7OQX6N7p6T_BaY8sCTJ3aa6u-fqCjoR-ZOZh_gD9-zLq92h_pAhEUjOp5TJ/s640/5.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<span style="font-size: large;">AIRASIA的债务持续在减少,不过Q2派发了12分的股息,因此现金减少RM401 mil,Net Gearing 现在是1.35。而且公司刚刚公布派发12分的股息,Q4的现金会再度减少RM401 mil左右。</span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgt4YKpg1o86su-J6oiSOECXNHcXwZ7WSbK-40hAf2vgecKxGCHUlMSbCmo6iPSvXJ-ofumvwjZeZhbgZH0Yk-HujApRWBokGFB9QKwktoFQJRZ12hWi4EfGvvHFhDEl4qSNsZwk00XH6a_/s1600/234.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="185" data-original-width="697" height="168" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgt4YKpg1o86su-J6oiSOECXNHcXwZ7WSbK-40hAf2vgecKxGCHUlMSbCmo6iPSvXJ-ofumvwjZeZhbgZH0Yk-HujApRWBokGFB9QKwktoFQJRZ12hWi4EfGvvHFhDEl4qSNsZwk00XH6a_/s640/234.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<span style="font-size: large;">8月25日公司宣布卖出了AACE, 预计公司的Net assets以及Cash balance分别会增加RM304.8 mil以及RM386.4 mil。这项交易预计2017Q4会完成,Total gain预计是RM187.6 mil。</span><br />
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<span style="font-size: large;">Tony之前一直说要卖掉非核心业务,所得将会用来派股息,因此刚刚公布的12分股息可以说是把卖掉AACE的钱派发给股东们。</span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjatWKPUomiSUyyGPpKN3qKX4GX9xcuui3jBGwxYKfIgDtHbxJ8TCisHMZv9qJO6VOyR-02JNNl_WJorRXo93mqK_5fExyRloWt-FXui2-JlEk7eqKkhatfBJDaxf49MPk67SgR_uYm73wv/s1600/3.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="687" data-original-width="965" height="454" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjatWKPUomiSUyyGPpKN3qKX4GX9xcuui3jBGwxYKfIgDtHbxJ8TCisHMZv9qJO6VOyR-02JNNl_WJorRXo93mqK_5fExyRloWt-FXui2-JlEk7eqKkhatfBJDaxf49MPk67SgR_uYm73wv/s640/3.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<span style="font-size: large;">公司的载客率无论是YOY或者QOQ都保持着正面的成长,这也是为什么AIRAISA的营业额可以连续两个季度突破历史新高。</span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgYjwHOHWMdcBxsUgaCBZLSo3lpVmgH8nJwgYKkN8Rg_QVTKZgh_YTf8sr_eTjewmdPzUlB9OcrvBoXbUZp_oPba5GQ4IFtXm6kMW-8DEQ9YhqKip47Y4GjJjfvrYiDyDexbYJpMYd9Cvit/s1600/passenger+traffic.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="603" data-original-width="1024" height="376" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgYjwHOHWMdcBxsUgaCBZLSo3lpVmgH8nJwgYKkN8Rg_QVTKZgh_YTf8sr_eTjewmdPzUlB9OcrvBoXbUZp_oPba5GQ4IFtXm6kMW-8DEQ9YhqKip47Y4GjJjfvrYiDyDexbYJpMYd9Cvit/s640/passenger+traffic.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<span style="font-size: large;">AIRASIA主要是在KLIA 2运作,7月份的KLIA无论是外国或者本地的乘客都达到了2017年新高。因此保持这种成长速度,Q3的营业额应该会不错,前提是AIRASIA要控制好成本。</span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgX6UJtZ2WnXyYEpwzSRTa1gEBJQn7tgDFR16YmNLzOJtKZ7BHxkIDHjNLvF05mTTl9KbyevAY_wZV_GY7cPNGXuBp0y3azZIsA9Vnt0YPOiMe6XaAPX7-05sgOPi3zNFpADzv2J5o-4dHO/s1600/4.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="621" data-original-width="916" height="432" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgX6UJtZ2WnXyYEpwzSRTa1gEBJQn7tgDFR16YmNLzOJtKZ7BHxkIDHjNLvF05mTTl9KbyevAY_wZV_GY7cPNGXuBp0y3azZIsA9Vnt0YPOiMe6XaAPX7-05sgOPi3zNFpADzv2J5o-4dHO/s640/4.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<span style="font-size: large;">营业额方面,飞机票的销售以及行李寄送费都是历史新高。而Other revenue只比上个季度下滑了2.2 mil,表现最差的是飞机出租业务,很大可能是因为AAC业务即将脱售,所以业务下跌。</span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgC_mS8djv17tWwvDkS25eHl184Tg5LbXnX5n9FT_FFlN3vBEpo2SSI_C9oDGe0-wSa0QvbVmcHYpysDWI-l3q_QwDT5X6dSnaUfpadyUePPUVwGpx_st2bqZ_KHHrkKIR7vgXG2gSzIj5U/s1600/prosp.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="531" data-original-width="789" height="430" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgC_mS8djv17tWwvDkS25eHl184Tg5LbXnX5n9FT_FFlN3vBEpo2SSI_C9oDGe0-wSa0QvbVmcHYpysDWI-l3q_QwDT5X6dSnaUfpadyUePPUVwGpx_st2bqZ_KHHrkKIR7vgXG2gSzIj5U/s640/prosp.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<span style="font-size: large;">而在Prospect里,管理层保持乐观看待,预计Q3的Load Factor将会是88%。而原油的价格以及外汇的波动都处于稳定的水平,这将会有助于公司的运作。</span><br />
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<span style="font-size: large;">最后,管理层对下半年保持乐观,预计2017年的业绩会优与2016年。</span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgeK7mqIi5VmwlX6WRutqSbnFpR5fyb9lTfNL-szbT2W2u6zX-0xw39hKEYoGSQAGvdNqwiLwJibQ6YzT8AtcMRbyukU1hEszdhlXLFaFzRHX_iBghssjJmvrlNEfBHo8SQK2B1kKR2AtiV/s1600/7.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="241" data-original-width="625" height="246" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgeK7mqIi5VmwlX6WRutqSbnFpR5fyb9lTfNL-szbT2W2u6zX-0xw39hKEYoGSQAGvdNqwiLwJibQ6YzT8AtcMRbyukU1hEszdhlXLFaFzRHX_iBghssjJmvrlNEfBHo8SQK2B1kKR2AtiV/s640/7.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<span style="font-size: large;">TONY一直说Real Happy for result,未来看起来很好。营业额是破新高,但是你的Net Profit插水59%,股东会很不开心leh。</span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-size: large;">不过公司最近的Corporate Exercise以及大动作不断:</span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-size: large;">AUG 25: 宣布以USD 100 mil卖掉AACE</span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;">AUG 29 : </span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;">-12点半之后公布YOY下滑73%的Net Profit,没有派股息。</span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;">- 2点半之后宣布内部重组,成为一个亚航。</span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj533eZUpNqLi50HmsJvw9wAaF0lg8XZ3dcYn5y58_XZSRojJARulWw0P6laHCdyorsEJEOU2R3K1DAzKa5f7NIsxJxtO5_kKFlMrWuXmE8VpZRgGwBbKhm2u-liJnIO6B4gp8bVPHiV3qf/s1600/232.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="751" data-original-width="707" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj533eZUpNqLi50HmsJvw9wAaF0lg8XZ3dcYn5y58_XZSRojJARulWw0P6laHCdyorsEJEOU2R3K1DAzKa5f7NIsxJxtO5_kKFlMrWuXmE8VpZRgGwBbKhm2u-liJnIO6B4gp8bVPHiV3qf/s640/232.png" width="602" /></a></div>
<span style="font-size: large;">- 亚航以及Partner - FNP宣布用Right Issue的方式入股印尼上市公司RMMP。假设一切顺利通过,印尼亚航- IAA预计Q4可以在印尼上市。假设Public没有认购,RMMP以自己公司的价值换得1.55%的股份。假设Public认购的话,RMMP预计会获得</span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;">使用绝招 :借壳上市</span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;">- 7点宣布季度报告Amendment,派发12分股息,然后Non controlling interest更改,EPS从2.8分改成4.4分。</span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiJmW9DrTtl0CG1FS0EZTYuRwNWYJu-GWpzerZqahgtWIbTypllmINjHiBI_8RDzSThjxFFsdOh_zJ1btMygRFhRkq1Smz5AYsl7L58MiR11VnX4v9TxAag6RjO2C2AGad10WChWT2DhWtd/s1600/1234444.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="187" data-original-width="861" height="138" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiJmW9DrTtl0CG1FS0EZTYuRwNWYJu-GWpzerZqahgtWIbTypllmINjHiBI_8RDzSThjxFFsdOh_zJ1btMygRFhRkq1Smz5AYsl7L58MiR11VnX4v9TxAag6RjO2C2AGad10WChWT2DhWtd/s640/1234444.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<span style="font-size: large;">预计印尼亚航上市会有RM230.4 mil的gain,不过这些都是所谓的Non cash items,不会真的有现金进账。而且印尼亚航Proposed的Transaction的数据都是预测出来的,到时候或许会有变化。</span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-size: large;">假设Q4卖掉AACE以及印尼上市通过完成,公司Non Operating Profit就超过RM400 mil。笔者都不知道是该笑还是哭,比较希望卖掉AAC快点完成,拖得太久了。</span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgkGWrHwQwFP1AolVEVZUt0OBmADjtXYwjfwm3ELKQleKSEWdSyvrv2UcuRNPE8aWzwsA_rb0nUnigGqEbw2QfzUiTZMo5N6lB9lGa-05adppAnlVSmQBHhPBTpadr2U4ZRvi5_zGOeyTi6/s1600/654.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="591" data-original-width="869" height="434" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgkGWrHwQwFP1AolVEVZUt0OBmADjtXYwjfwm3ELKQleKSEWdSyvrv2UcuRNPE8aWzwsA_rb0nUnigGqEbw2QfzUiTZMo5N6lB9lGa-05adppAnlVSmQBHhPBTpadr2U4ZRvi5_zGOeyTi6/s640/654.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<span style="font-size: large;">ONE AIRAISA - 【一个亚航】的概念其实Tony已经多次提到,这可以让公司的各种投资资产,品牌以及其他业务获得价值的释放。短期看好像是没有什么“好处”,不过长期来看,把AIRASIA的业务分成5个主要业务,以后管理会变得更加有效率。</span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-size: large;">TONY一直觉得AIRAISA的估值被低估,公司应该要获得更高的Valuation。举个例子,AIRASIA全部的业务加起来可能市场觉得只是值RM3.50。不过当把5各业务分门别类之后,再经过Tony的妙手操作,未来的价值可能就能够浮现出来。</span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-size: large;">整体而言,这个季度的Net Operating Profit是进步的,无论是机票销售,行李寄送以及Other revenue都稳定进步。这个季度一次性的Deferred Taxation未来应该不会再发生,只要Operating profit保持进步,今年的全年营业额肯定破新高。</span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-size: large;">Q4【可能】有RM400 mil以上的One off gain,所以Profit Before Tax应该不会太难看。只要油价以及外汇保持稳定,AIRASIA在下半年Net Operating Profit要进步是可以的。</span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-size: x-large;"><b>有人说TONY印度佬满嘴大炮,</b></span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-large;"><b>有人说AIRASIA前景亮眼可期,</b></span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-large;"><b>钱是你的,选择是你的。</b></span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-size: x-large;">以上纯属分享,买卖请自负。</span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-size: large;">Harryt30</span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;">20.31p.m.</span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;">2017.08.29</span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span>H@rryhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05027352948099378525noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1963488445754456476.post-33100623790360582692017-08-23T20:45:00.001+08:002017-08-23T22:43:26.416+08:001409.【U TURN克立斯】- CRESBLD (8591) 蒸蒸日上,FY17上半年盈利超越FY2016!<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhd84HggeMHOQO0BLft33kReRZafa6gGFcEOh5uQ4pXz4I5axyqcZdLGFqXil5_9tHin30VsgZvCIKe6UBeTuLu2fQko7XFB_QaUUjTAQK3QIMER7MxsESZ_RtvdNFXXlzoGCLaZWHeAHzB/s1600/1.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="729" data-original-width="1227" height="380" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhd84HggeMHOQO0BLft33kReRZafa6gGFcEOh5uQ4pXz4I5axyqcZdLGFqXil5_9tHin30VsgZvCIKe6UBeTuLu2fQko7XFB_QaUUjTAQK3QIMER7MxsESZ_RtvdNFXXlzoGCLaZWHeAHzB/s640/1.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<span style="font-size: large;">CRESBHD(8591) 今天刚刚交出了YOY上升109%的Net Profit, 达到单个季度RM7.2 mil,同时也是2年来最佳的业绩。CRESBLD过去一直保持着盈利不败的金身,FY15Q4的时候金身终于不保,公司的Net Loss高达RM10.8 mil。不过这都是因为当时有RM33.8 mil的Impairment loss receivables。</span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-size: large;">所以股价当时就从2015年头的RM1.20左右跌倒底部的88分,陷入横摆了接近1年多的时间。今年5月份股价开始呈现上涨的趋势,过后在17Q1出色的业绩加持下,股价一度上涨到RM1.20. 虽然8月11日一度回调到97.5分,</span><span style="font-size: large;">股价在营业出炉前,短短两个星期</span><span style="font-size: large;">上涨了20多%,</span><span style="font-size: large;">昨天更是突破52周新高的RM1.19。</span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-size: large;">今天交出了出色的业绩,但是股价在短期内又涨了不少,长远的角度还有利可图吗?</span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg5TISUyJXHswY-T2C_vYFDLrIUYQyrNidQeMGPzytLFi6RIGm6HMX57Cu7YiXTzGBIGtZ87xGLbHoznEu3ZWnbD9zK_n-5sKXajqnRu2qCZZc18Y-EKAW1k43aM7xO1E_WG9S6_qzD29yb/s1600/3.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="485" data-original-width="897" height="346" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg5TISUyJXHswY-T2C_vYFDLrIUYQyrNidQeMGPzytLFi6RIGm6HMX57Cu7YiXTzGBIGtZ87xGLbHoznEu3ZWnbD9zK_n-5sKXajqnRu2qCZZc18Y-EKAW1k43aM7xO1E_WG9S6_qzD29yb/s640/3.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<span style="font-size: large;">公司上半年的盈利就高达RM13.378 mil,这已经超越了去年全年的盈利。而且Net Profit Margin看到明显的改善,今年的营业额完全是有可能突破RM400 mil的5年新高。</span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-size: large;">此外,管理层在6月份的报导说手上有RM1,100 mil的建筑合约,扣除这个季度RM75.6 mil以及上个星期获得的RM16.28 mil的新合约,公司大约还有RM1,040 mil的建筑合约。公司现在竞标着RM1.8 Bil的合约,过后会继续竞标其他工程以达到RM3 bil的目标。而公司的目标是在今年获得RM500 mil的新合约,下半年会是关键期,因为大部分的大型基建合约会在未来4个月公布。</span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-size: large;">CRESBLD上半年的建筑营业额是RM173 mil,假设全年的营业是RM400 mil,CRESBLD手上的合约可以顶个2年半左右。</span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-size: large;">除了建筑部门,CRESBHD的Concession arrangement 也贡献着稳定的盈利,每年的营业额大约RM45.2mil。公司在季报中提到,</span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-size: large;">"With the completion of UiTM Tapah concession project and its refinancing exercise, we expect better margins
moving forward."</span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhuiXspIc9earFy7N_Hr7MVhJKUGgtx_RlC2Bdli2jP255PuzuDneVw38nilC8YFJxyYu0JYimF74vOgbCuaJaWKvWakH1iG_Z4EvNrWFolcw4tHvH3IgIBeKhvDWFOSWG5euW5GCd-rkWZ/s1600/c.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="373" data-original-width="839" height="284" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhuiXspIc9earFy7N_Hr7MVhJKUGgtx_RlC2Bdli2jP255PuzuDneVw38nilC8YFJxyYu0JYimF74vOgbCuaJaWKvWakH1iG_Z4EvNrWFolcw4tHvH3IgIBeKhvDWFOSWG5euW5GCd-rkWZ/s640/c.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-size: large;">因此这个部门未来都可以贡献着稳定的盈利。</span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-size: large;">而产业部门也营业额也从FY2016上半年的RM11.2 mil增长到现在的RM39.32 mil,盈利有明显的进步。</span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-large;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-size: x-large;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-size: x-large;">总结:</span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjnLik0WYLna9xMNnhhvSDkLwl4Aww4XLEs0FjajjFZ6OPTKqVTAz_0Y5E92gY_PgYCAXJOxW1yz-57ADG2YEYtWiQv7TIsjKyg7pyBdwagKLBf6kP0kqRJqsZaey6mFsOqb1DtcPT7hebB/s1600/2.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="676" data-original-width="1049" height="412" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjnLik0WYLna9xMNnhhvSDkLwl4Aww4XLEs0FjajjFZ6OPTKqVTAz_0Y5E92gY_PgYCAXJOxW1yz-57ADG2YEYtWiQv7TIsjKyg7pyBdwagKLBf6kP0kqRJqsZaey6mFsOqb1DtcPT7hebB/s640/2.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<span style="font-size: large;">以上是CRESBHD的全年盈利图表,盈利出现了一个【U TURN】,现在的全年盈利RM19.025 mil。假设继续保持上半年的成长势头,这家公司的FY2017的全年盈利有望超越RM26 mil或以上。管理层在接受采访时说:“We are looking to post </span><b><span style="font-size: x-large;">very good number</span></b><span style="font-size: large;"> in FY2017”。</span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-size: large;">公司最新一个季度的EPS = 4.2 分,假设未来每个季度维持这种水准,CRESBHD全年的EPS是有机会冲刺16 cent。以PE 10来计算的话,这家公司的股价还是有一定的成长空间。</span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-size: large;">不过股价在过去1个星期暴涨了20%,不排除接下来几天又Sell on news的现象出现。但是以长远的角度来看,公司未来2个季度的盈利成长可见度是非常高的。</span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-size: large;">以上纯属分享,买卖请自负!</span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-size: large;">Harryt30</span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;">20.45p.m.</span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;">2017.08.23</span>H@rryhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05027352948099378525noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1963488445754456476.post-24974224898146762372017-08-21T20:41:00.000+08:002017-08-21T20:41:02.005+08:001408.【常青】 - EVERGRN(5101) 盈利YOY下跌62%,是【无可救药】还是【背水一战】??<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgJyjri13q-Ik-_9BRDQnISP846CrU5AvaW8MIIXflIQwO41h0zjLEzA1NFZKd7OPn1dyT1cly6LyFHenTJN0sWPrkWMvVmXvKfMt7v0oH6ZfLl7ztCslpJlPZS1E1H6ICnKR01vA6rCTHg/s1600/12.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="552" data-original-width="1028" height="342" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgJyjri13q-Ik-_9BRDQnISP846CrU5AvaW8MIIXflIQwO41h0zjLEzA1NFZKd7OPn1dyT1cly6LyFHenTJN0sWPrkWMvVmXvKfMt7v0oH6ZfLl7ztCslpJlPZS1E1H6ICnKR01vA6rCTHg/s640/12.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">EVERGN(5101)在今天公布了净利YOY下跌62%的业绩,不过营业额却YOY上涨了5%。其实之前就预料到盈利YOY会下滑,不过让人讶异的是QOQ继续沉沦,成为3年里最差的一个季度。现在的EVERGRN是处于【背水一战】还是【无可救药】,看看以下的分析或许会给大家一点概念。</span></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEheDs5NEa7nhLY-omTE3VpKJ-jgT48SDhmtMJDVzYrYsNuxSasa-hPoU0hlDn_SqyaahLqy33ma1W081eu6USlBXPFBIKXevFSIWGFpa-5uDcOlgW76tEkg32Q9x56XidW5nZy2gGTM_Z3c/s1600/11111111111111.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="691" data-original-width="891" height="496" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEheDs5NEa7nhLY-omTE3VpKJ-jgT48SDhmtMJDVzYrYsNuxSasa-hPoU0hlDn_SqyaahLqy33ma1W081eu6USlBXPFBIKXevFSIWGFpa-5uDcOlgW76tEkg32Q9x56XidW5nZy2gGTM_Z3c/s640/11111111111111.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">上图是EVERGRN的Income statement,营业额YOY上涨了RM12.7 mil,但是Cost of sales却足足上涨了RM21 mil,这里足足多了RM8.3 mil。相信大家都知道原因,那就是橡胶木短缺导致价格上涨,因此EVERGRN的成本拉高了许多。</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">不过在营业额成长的情况下,Selling & Admin expenses反而比去年同期下滑了RM2.3 mil,这意味着公司花在自动化的开销已经开始见到成效。</span></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhZt8nr3D9J8Y7VjfMzl1I-W-whmkF40oQW2Mhgar12eBf088HXE9jgyjQamXXJ4GO967A0I2FpVRWPKXPMdUr3CXGvMFEFZBuhXzNCHtbKYliM5LpjNzr18vidLsP4D97HquZlbkyPlOnQ/s1600/ppe.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="452" data-original-width="841" height="342" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhZt8nr3D9J8Y7VjfMzl1I-W-whmkF40oQW2Mhgar12eBf088HXE9jgyjQamXXJ4GO967A0I2FpVRWPKXPMdUr3CXGvMFEFZBuhXzNCHtbKYliM5LpjNzr18vidLsP4D97HquZlbkyPlOnQ/s640/ppe.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">公司上半年的Purchase PPE是RM43.921 mil,在Q2花了RM16.709 mil在CAPEX以及买进新的机器。</span></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhWR3r_S92aR2kHBWkMgB05cYwxDLk4mFPC_lHCFT_NqpN5ybNUAUaPcJahKZ3HRKgjX_Mp_h90LwJBku-APwYZCJjMAgfKN0bEeXmaKazxDvfHhFKTXPGI7ycezocnAwMlJTQN_WxUVN6j/s1600/cf+2.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="603" data-original-width="1010" height="382" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhWR3r_S92aR2kHBWkMgB05cYwxDLk4mFPC_lHCFT_NqpN5ybNUAUaPcJahKZ3HRKgjX_Mp_h90LwJBku-APwYZCJjMAgfKN0bEeXmaKazxDvfHhFKTXPGI7ycezocnAwMlJTQN_WxUVN6j/s640/cf+2.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<span style="font-size: large;">跟去年Q4相比,公司的Net Debt从RN44.8 mil增加到现在的RM111.05 mil。这是因为:</span><br />
<br />
<ul>
<li><span style="font-size: large;">Inventories增加了RM23.5 mil</span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: large;">Trade Receivables增加 RM33 mil</span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: large;">Total Liabilities在半年里也减少了RM11 mil</span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: large;">最后就是公司在上半年投入了RM43.921 mil的PPE</span></li>
</ul>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj1icT5dzlUHs3_9eOjmH2MxZx04jvnnfRSLfmS7e0gCZivl68ZF09f5Kn-i4YKfJay0tmK9nlN3IloMWZv2znUJE8n_mnLR8Qwhi7gRockCRQQTovSYp-UX0ic_cw93Di8OeOtdeFgGnTl/s1600/gearing.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="532" data-original-width="1098" height="310" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj1icT5dzlUHs3_9eOjmH2MxZx04jvnnfRSLfmS7e0gCZivl68ZF09f5Kn-i4YKfJay0tmK9nlN3IloMWZv2znUJE8n_mnLR8Qwhi7gRockCRQQTovSYp-UX0ic_cw93Di8OeOtdeFgGnTl/s640/gearing.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">所以公司的Gearing Ratio从3.91%增加到9.5%, 不过还是处于健康的水平。</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">公司盈利下滑的几个主因:</span></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjuPUoO65le8LI_cOWvOU908g2uP3XIsMNc7XPacA8SZdWwe-AgHJVU7B8AMpLnyXR_zAgGl8dPDhOHRUbQGPGbliZssF8tU_3L90bAYKoQ3CAnGIAZFFJYRFI-tlfh_DQRJ4cZPXeBxaRb/s1600/8.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="529" data-original-width="733" height="460" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjuPUoO65le8LI_cOWvOU908g2uP3XIsMNc7XPacA8SZdWwe-AgHJVU7B8AMpLnyXR_zAgGl8dPDhOHRUbQGPGbliZssF8tU_3L90bAYKoQ3CAnGIAZFFJYRFI-tlfh_DQRJ4cZPXeBxaRb/s640/8.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<span style="font-size: large;">EVERGRN这个季度的外汇亏损高达RM3.394 mil,而今年Q1的外汇亏损只有RM123k。</span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj17H6VDtnzj0x2B2obfRMW45ippoFRgDPm5TjDX0gr3QVlm5QyF6RDFwu9zhIzu2CDiK3m73lELsPcfvBtOIvYBOic53gaae3TkKixLZRELz3Cls7p4w4g7BqRA4SjruV3Pp0n2VLcsKNH/s1600/11112.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="773" data-original-width="713" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj17H6VDtnzj0x2B2obfRMW45ippoFRgDPm5TjDX0gr3QVlm5QyF6RDFwu9zhIzu2CDiK3m73lELsPcfvBtOIvYBOic53gaae3TkKixLZRELz3Cls7p4w4g7BqRA4SjruV3Pp0n2VLcsKNH/s640/11112.png" width="590" /></a></div>
<span style="font-size: large;">泰国的营业额按年比较是从RM85.9 mil进步到RM103.73 mil,这主要归功于更高的销售量以及价格。不过盈利下滑是因为Glue以及Log的价格走高而导致成本增加所致。</span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgc3osdOBIpAokPh1ztUqSPYMcY2R4FdhLFBbx1Gxopd6jO20Y8ZhJeWDAUCs2y8WUWUBgBtSha96MTKFUJ6JMYAhOSFAizEDUU7sHLfWXdrqG_rcBH2eohhV3OF3gehvrl7Eb7LXbzdrHf/s1600/89.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="623" data-original-width="753" height="528" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgc3osdOBIpAokPh1ztUqSPYMcY2R4FdhLFBbx1Gxopd6jO20Y8ZhJeWDAUCs2y8WUWUBgBtSha96MTKFUJ6JMYAhOSFAizEDUU7sHLfWXdrqG_rcBH2eohhV3OF3gehvrl7Eb7LXbzdrHf/s640/89.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">马来西亚的营业额下滑是因为较低的销售以及厂房在Ramadan佳节的时候Shut Down进行Maintenance。在工作日减少以及缺乏原谅的双重打击之下,营业额以及盈利双双走低。这个情况也曾经发生在HEVEA的16Q2业绩,当时也是</span><span style="font-size: large;">因为工厂shut down维修而导致营业额以及盈利走低。</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">所以这个季度盈利不佳是因为外汇亏损,缺乏原料,Glue价格上涨以及马来西亚厂房在Ramadan期间shut down所致。假设以Pure Operating Profit来看,Q2以及Q1其实相差不远。</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: x-large;">总结:</span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiAHEgXhdECVZYMWlSJnzQgOV5MbO0SZ9nz4o7tzotkqjgu1GV6alx113kbpAAEtuSTTzLC8WEP36qLQLNlwRQVSSvQ1-L7ay1hLv-cG7ZMEWmiSkjFQvENUkzpPVcfNHeDItWkSgmxexbO/s1600/conc.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="481" data-original-width="854" height="360" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiAHEgXhdECVZYMWlSJnzQgOV5MbO0SZ9nz4o7tzotkqjgu1GV6alx113kbpAAEtuSTTzLC8WEP36qLQLNlwRQVSSvQ1-L7ay1hLv-cG7ZMEWmiSkjFQvENUkzpPVcfNHeDItWkSgmxexbO/s640/conc.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<span style="font-size: large;">EVERGRN的盈利已经5连跌,现在的盈利处于两年新低。单个季度RM6,2 mil的盈利已经是3年新低,盈利在下个季度应该很难跌破RM6.2 mil以下。</span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiNPEVUEboxwKll_1uLAX5bXDrsnu0-GmF-jWtKuM47Fe4264K4YboXZwl6sIAowQHyMu1wK938R4hM34lzN5b66ly7dKxxGRkz2bUa-Qn4GzwAtuZ2mPgXeyn9EPh0uZdQMkkyC0soTR2-/s1600/last.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="257" data-original-width="701" height="234" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiNPEVUEboxwKll_1uLAX5bXDrsnu0-GmF-jWtKuM47Fe4264K4YboXZwl6sIAowQHyMu1wK938R4hM34lzN5b66ly7dKxxGRkz2bUa-Qn4GzwAtuZ2mPgXeyn9EPh0uZdQMkkyC0soTR2-/s640/last.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<span style="font-size: large;">无疑,公司应该可以做得更好,这个季度让很投资者感到失望。不过的也有几个小亮点:</span><br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both;">
</div>
<ul>
<li><span style="font-size: large;">公司的营业额增加,主要是因为High Premium的产品刺激营业额走高。年报里说到Particle board会在Q2全面营运。</span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: large;">自动化开始看到成果,Selling & Admin Expense减少。</span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: large;">政府禁止橡胶木出口,Log的供应在未来会恢复正常, 管理层预计未来可以交出令人满意的业绩。</span></li>
</ul>
<div>
<span style="font-size: large;">EVERGRN的股价在明天十之八九会遭到散户的抛售,不过从季报里的分析以及公司的前景来看,公司已经处于【背水一战】的处境。营业额上半年已经有RM508 mil,假设下半年比上半年进步5%,全年的营业额有望达到RM1,040 mil或以上的5年新高。</span></div>
<div>
<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></div>
<div>
<span style="font-size: large;">只要EVERGRN可以控制成本以及的决解原料的问题,未来的盈利是有望逐步成长并回到当初的巅峰。</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><b><i>一家公司有人看好,就会有人看淡。选择在你手中。看淡这家公司的人就会认为EVERGRN【无可救药】,认为这家公司有价值的就会选择【背水一战】。</i></b></span></div>
<div>
<span style="font-size: large;"><b><i><br /></i></b></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><b><i>共勉之。</i></b></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: x-large;">**以上纯属分享,买卖请自负。</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">Harryt30</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">20.40p.m.</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">2017.08.21</span></div>
H@rryhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05027352948099378525noreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1963488445754456476.post-75363108198110465362017-08-10T14:05:00.000+08:002017-08-10T14:06:57.296+08:001407.【冷门多敏】 - DOMINAN(7169) 营业额+ 核心盈利突破新高,大山脚新厂推动FY18成长!<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg17q-JJOtH3rR9P-y-7ROTz_Y3KTSCvRS2qVJD4HAdbeqj7GY2GbOzSbtea2EFjC2uTl2RUXi72gy4OtVk4A-T-ZcTSnL2qOa7jh5j4ydvCClbUpKnkyzmubn2B3oXGN88DF2YYQxshng7/s1600/D1+-+Copy.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="517" data-original-width="883" height="374" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg17q-JJOtH3rR9P-y-7ROTz_Y3KTSCvRS2qVJD4HAdbeqj7GY2GbOzSbtea2EFjC2uTl2RUXi72gy4OtVk4A-T-ZcTSnL2qOa7jh5j4ydvCClbUpKnkyzmubn2B3oXGN88DF2YYQxshng7/s640/D1+-+Copy.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<span style="font-size: large; line-height: 107%;">DOMINAN(</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; font-size: large; line-height: 107%;">多敏,</span><span style="font-size: large; line-height: 107%;">7169) </span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; font-size: large; line-height: 107%;">成立于</span><span style="font-size: large; line-height: 107%;">1991</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; font-size: large; line-height: 107%;">年,</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; font-size: large; line-height: 107%;">公司成立初期主要业务是在新加坡销售胶合板</span><span style="font-size: large; line-height: 107%;">(Plywood) </span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; font-size: large; line-height: 107%;">以及其他木制产品,销售对象则以建筑以及家具业为主。</span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;"><br /></span></span>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: large;"><span style="line-height: 107%;">DOMINAN</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">主要涉及生产环保木材产品及相关原料,如中密度纤维板、三夹板和炮花板等。其产品主要用作产业、家具、内部设计和建筑材料用途。不过这家木材公司非常低调,鲜少见报,因此知道这家来自南马的木材公司成交量低得可怜。</span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;"><br /></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">公司在过去</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">11</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">年营业额的</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">CAGR %</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">是</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">8.91%</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">,</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">FY2017</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">的全年营业额以及盈利都处于历史新高的位置。</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">2014</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">年以及</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">2015</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">年都包涵了一次性的盈利,因此</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">FY2017</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">的</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">Operating Net Profit</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">才是历史新高。</span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;"><br /></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">详情可参考下面的截图:</span></span><b><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjU4x2Sw7HtOWD3vT16lncjIhCGeMuTwboAox_9LeSyDaWkCd35vpU66EE3Mzo-2yGiARb3Z5Gk7dmFUgpm3alSYePq61M61fws8GDMZABcjjqmToxhLrXjjh_H94FleGNQnwrjBQs47i27/s1600/D2.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="289" data-original-width="877" height="210" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjU4x2Sw7HtOWD3vT16lncjIhCGeMuTwboAox_9LeSyDaWkCd35vpU66EE3Mzo-2yGiARb3Z5Gk7dmFUgpm3alSYePq61M61fws8GDMZABcjjqmToxhLrXjjh_H94FleGNQnwrjBQs47i27/s640/D2.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<span style="font-size: large;"><span style="line-height: 107%;">FY2014</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">因为</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">RM6.7 mil</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">的</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">One off fair value adjustment on Investment properties</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">而导致盈利大增。</span></span><br />
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<b><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjCkAWJ92tdqcrbSRwhEPFnW4QGlcoI0yBkGwuRMLLiE4RWIONOGrKYcqt9TPqQ-V6o0F4_0rm5VWwlfxZbYv_EqfonvqmoYstdSZE-2Li6r8eYnr5kqy6KJO4zlXJz_j04XXihX20NhRwz/s1600/D3.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="253" data-original-width="925" height="174" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjCkAWJ92tdqcrbSRwhEPFnW4QGlcoI0yBkGwuRMLLiE4RWIONOGrKYcqt9TPqQ-V6o0F4_0rm5VWwlfxZbYv_EqfonvqmoYstdSZE-2Li6r8eYnr5kqy6KJO4zlXJz_j04XXihX20NhRwz/s640/D3.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: "calibri" , sans-serif; line-height: 107%;">FY2015</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">则是因为卖产业而获得了</span><span style="font-family: "calibri" , sans-serif; line-height: 107%;">RM4.26 mil</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">的一次性盈利。</span></span><br />
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">假设Exclude了</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">FY14</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">以及</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">FY15</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">的一次性盈利,大家可以看到</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">FY2017</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">的</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">Gross Profit</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">有了飞跃性的成长,</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">Gross Profit Margin</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">在</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">5</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">年来首次突破</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">5.18%</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">。。</span></span><br />
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">从过去</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">9</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">个季度的趋势来看,最近两个季度的营业额以及盈利都处于历史新高</span></span><span style="font-size: large; line-height: 107%;">(15Q4</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; font-size: large; line-height: 107%;">有一次性盈利</span><span style="font-size: large; line-height: 107%;">)</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; font-size: large; line-height: 107%;">。而且</span><span style="font-size: large; line-height: 107%;">Net Profit Margin</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; font-size: large; line-height: 107%;">也比往年进步了不少,</span><span style="font-size: large; line-height: 107%;">FY17</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; font-size: large; line-height: 107%;">下半年都保持在</span><span style="font-size: large; line-height: 107%;">4%</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; font-size: large; line-height: 107%;">以上。这主要归功于公司专注于生产高利润产品,未来预计陆续有来。</span><br />
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">此外,公司除了积极进军海外市场,他们也在过去耗资</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">RM3,600</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">万在</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">Bukit Mertajam</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">以及</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">Dengkil </span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">设立产房以增加产能。</span></span><b><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">坐落在大山脚的的新综合压层面板</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">(Laminated Panel) </span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">工厂兼仓库以及在</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">2016</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">年底开始投入运作。该工厂可以帮助集团提供更多容纳产品的空间,并将于槟城生产层压木质面板的营运合拼。</span></span><br />
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">大山脚的工厂将迎合北马和泰国南部的客户群,</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">DOMINAN</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">放眼在短期内,扩展泰国北部以及中部范围的客户去。</span></span><br />
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</w:wrap></v:imagedata></v:shape><span style="font-size: large;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">过去两年一共投入了</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">RM24.995 mil</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">在</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">PPE</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">,而</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">FY2018</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">会是开始享受果实的季节。</span></span><b><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span style="line-height: 107%;">DOMINAN</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">的债务从</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">16Q4</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">的</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">RM126.337 mil</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">一直增长到</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">17Q3</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">的</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">RM163.5 mil</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">,这些借贷都是用在建设扩张新厂。不过大山脚的新厂预计接近完工或已经开始贡献盈利</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">,所以</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">FY17Q4</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">的现金以及债务都了有了非常明显的改善,</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">Net Debt Positon</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">从</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">RM121.1 mil</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">下滑到</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">RM102.03 mil</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">。</span></span><br />
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span style="line-height: 107%;">DOMINAN</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">的资产也从</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">RM383.75 mil</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">增长到</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">RM435.57 mil</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">,</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">NTA</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">也从</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">RM1.37</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">增加到</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">RM1.48, Q4</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">的资产低于</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">Q3</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">是因为</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">Depreciation</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">所导致。</span></span><br />
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span style="line-height: 107%;">DOMINAN</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">的其中一个目标是把出口营业额增长到</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">20%</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">,过去的3年都看到了明显的增长,</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">FY2017</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">已经增长到</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">18.98%,距离20%的目标已经非常靠近。而且本地和外国的销售都保持稳健的成长,预计FY2018可以突破全年RM600 mil的营业额。</span></span><br />
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: "calibri" , sans-serif; line-height: 107%;">DOMINAN</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">的产品主要用于家具,建筑材料以及室内设计等用途,因此家私业领域的兴衰跟它有着很大的关系。</span></span><br />
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span style="line-height: 107%;">2016</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">年美金走低,但是各大家私股都交出了历史新高的营业额,</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">2017</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">有继续成长的趋势。因此</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">DOMINAN</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">的营业额以及核心盈利在</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">FY2017</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">都达到了历史新高。公司部分的原料是以美金购入,所以公司会把成本转嫁到客户身上。加上公司接近</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">20%</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">的营业额是出口至国外,因此也会有少许的外汇盈利。所以美金处于</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">4.25 – 4.30</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">对</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">DOMINAN</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">的影响并不会太大,公司主要是靠营业额增长以及扩张带动盈利,而不是单单靠外汇。</span></span><b><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">公司过去</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">4</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">年的</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">Total Net Profit</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">是</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">RM80.849 mil</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">,但过去</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">4</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">年却耗资</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">RM49.81 mil</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">在</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">Purchase of PPE</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">以及好几百万购买地皮。此外,</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">4</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">年的时间</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">DOMINAN</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">一共派发了</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">RM23.873 mil</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">给股东们。</span></span><br />
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">总结来说,公司所赚到的钱有</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">70%</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">是用来扩张,</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">30%</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">用来派发股息,管理层的作风值得嘉许。</span></span><b><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
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<span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;"><span style="font-size: x-large;">总结:</span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">公<span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">司的</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">Net Profit</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">在</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">FY2017</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">迎来了</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">U – TURN, </span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">全年</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">Net Profit</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">从</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">17Q2</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">开始复苏并达到历史新高</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">(15Q3</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">包括了一次性盈利</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">)</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">。而且</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">DOMINAN</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">也是为数不多</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">1</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">年</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">4</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">个季度都派发股息的公司,</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">FY2017</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">派发</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">5</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">仙的股息,相等于</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">4%</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">的周息率。</span></span><br />
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</w:wrap></v:imagedata></v:shape><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="line-height: 107%;">DOMINAN</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">的营业额处于上升的趋势,</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">Net Profit Margin</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">过去</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">4</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">个季度节节高升,而</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">Net Profit</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">已经连续</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">4</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">个季度</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">QOQ</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">成长。</span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">未来两个季度在【<b>大山脚新厂】</b>的带动下应该可以保持稳定成长。</span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "simsun"; font-size: large;">DOMINAN的股价在2015年7月27日上涨到RM1.53(红股前是RM1.83),当时的全年盈利是RM22 -23 mil。</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; font-size: large; line-height: 25.68px;">公司现在全年盈利是RM22.945 mil,</span><span style="font-size: large; line-height: 25.68px;">EPS = 13.9, </span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; font-size: large; line-height: 25.68px;">以</span><span style="font-size: large; line-height: 25.68px;">RM1.26</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; font-size: large; line-height: 25.68px;">的价格计算,</span><span style="font-size: large; line-height: 25.68px;"> PE = 9.06。</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; font-size: large; line-height: 25.68px;">假设</span><span style="font-size: large; line-height: 25.68px;">Net Profit</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; font-size: large; line-height: 25.68px;">在未来两个季度保持成长,公司长期是有机会回到当初的的巅峰RM1.50左右的,长期的涨幅空间应该会有10 - 15%(包括 3 -4%的股息)。</span></div>
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<span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; font-size: large; line-height: 25.68px;">需要注意的是,这家公司的成交量非常低,而且股价已经横摆了1年半以上。2015年底的股价是RM1.15, 2016年底股价是RM1.23, 而现在股价是1.26, 加上过去1年半派发7分的股息,持有19个月的ROI才15%左右。</span></div>
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<b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">因此这家公司适合保守型的投资者,而且必须耐得住寂寞的人才能守得住这家公司。</span></b><b><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
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<span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; font-size: large; line-height: 25.68px;">2015年木材业趋势是由HEVEA以及EVERGRN带动,过后FLBHD,MIECO以及DOMINAN等跟着随风起舞。HEVEA的闭市股价已经在今年突破历史新高,假设DOMINAN在8月份的业绩盈利出色,它或许会受益于这一轮的木材风。</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "simsun"; font-size: large;">以上纯属分享,买卖请自负!</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">Harryt30</span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">14.05p.m.</span></span></div>
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H@rryhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05027352948099378525noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1963488445754456476.post-40371816810778649672017-07-24T15:21:00.001+08:002017-07-24T15:42:57.047+08:001406.【Everyone Can Fly】- AIRASIA(5099) 营业额2004年上市至今成长不断,2017年营业额有望再破新高!<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
<span style="font-size: large;">随着科技日新月异的进步,人类的生活模式发生了天翻地覆的改变。智能手机,人工智能AI, 虚拟货币,网购等都渗透进你我的生活。股神巴菲特以前说过,他不会买他不懂的领域,比如科技股。可是过去一年,他大笔买进了科技巨擎APPLE的股票,今年获得了丰厚的回酬。</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">此外,巴菲特在1989年在买进美国航空股惨赔之后就对航空业很感冒,甚至用【死亡陷阱】来称呼航空业。但是世事无绝对,股神在2016年11月买进了美国是三大航空股以及西南航空的股票。是什么让它改变了他的想法,是什么让航空股变得吸引呢?</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">回顾10 - 20年前,搭飞机对许多普通人来说是件奢侈的事情,因为飞机票的价格并不便宜。但是廉价航空的出现改变了航空业的格局,而马来西亚就也出现了AIRASIA (5099)这家廉价航空公司。AIRASIA已经连续9年获得Skytrax“世界最佳低成本航空”的殊容,并拿下“2017年亚洲最佳廉价航空大奖”,创下了骄人的记录。</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">人们的消费模式正在改变,搭乘飞机已经是非常普遍的事情。今年6月RAYA季节时,机场的人潮是最佳的证明。而航空公司也不断推出不同的服务以及周边产品以增加盈利,AIRASIA也在朝着这个方向前进。</span></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEikCZy1V1z222_A2Xh9xk6XU-TZsBYENz_lh3umlYvg8ZvWQlS4Kgo_KRJOAhIUcg_oEkktbwAGNdqbb-iTFLuLByURblAFgdQvzi6hktoAyYAE-4cd7KgE0sL-VDJ5SeCsnKnOULpDpswu/s1600/12.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="668" data-original-width="1126" height="378" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEikCZy1V1z222_A2Xh9xk6XU-TZsBYENz_lh3umlYvg8ZvWQlS4Kgo_KRJOAhIUcg_oEkktbwAGNdqbb-iTFLuLByURblAFgdQvzi6hktoAyYAE-4cd7KgE0sL-VDJ5SeCsnKnOULpDpswu/s640/12.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">AIRASIA早2004年上市至今已经有13年,而公司的营业额保持着每年成长的记录。FY2017的营业额以及盈利双双突破了历史新高,全年的Net Profit高达RM2,039.1 mil。</span></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjh16Gs6J0FddO2W8-eEGj_sEBB2J8Xk5Q12SlOKnA2oOIj9dxTa2lot1fPVt02HYk8OY0sGxzY1B-hvWvBELHNsx3yVTMB67H38vAqzFI6BNrouuqrxEZDb95zU8UUjHKb5l5BeexclFAX/s1600/11.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="444" data-original-width="324" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjh16Gs6J0FddO2W8-eEGj_sEBB2J8Xk5Q12SlOKnA2oOIj9dxTa2lot1fPVt02HYk8OY0sGxzY1B-hvWvBELHNsx3yVTMB67H38vAqzFI6BNrouuqrxEZDb95zU8UUjHKb5l5BeexclFAX/s640/11.png" width="466" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><b><i>**AIRASIA的Year End在2007年改成Dec 31,因此2007年的营业额是从2006年7月1日 - 2007年12月31日,长达18个月。</i></b></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">从上图的数据,我们可以看到航空领域一直都在稳健地成长,乘客的人数在过去10多年平均保持着双位数的成长。不过令人遗憾的是,AIRASIA的股价却像【云霄飞车】一样,起伏非常夸张。主要是因为航空公司最主要的成本来自于飞机燃油,因此原油价格会直接影响航空股的盈利。</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">AIRASIA是一家周期性的公司,因此适当的时候也是必须卖出,长期持有不适合这家公司,它的盈利受到许多因素的影响。不过近年油价下滑有利于AIRASIA,促使它的股价在今年上涨了40%以上。</span></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjJTBn9t66_8O9UR1gy0c0jhzsq9VtP_6CEJ3MaZ3ULd0w3TraiSmMUMgKsuuXrIpgTZRz3NXWmrMCUKYS-99wgoCK5E0hz_jqhKQnhslWG7SPBoIeZ1VYuEd__NoR8ogovBXXqBzqF-aXy/s1600/13.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="452" data-original-width="752" height="384" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjJTBn9t66_8O9UR1gy0c0jhzsq9VtP_6CEJ3MaZ3ULd0w3TraiSmMUMgKsuuXrIpgTZRz3NXWmrMCUKYS-99wgoCK5E0hz_jqhKQnhslWG7SPBoIeZ1VYuEd__NoR8ogovBXXqBzqF-aXy/s640/13.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">上图是AIRASIA从FY2012到FY2017Q1的Aircraft Fuel Expenses,FY 2016年的燃油开销是5年最低。因此单单因为油价下滑就让AA多赚了RM422.177 mil, 盈利上涨也是意料之中的事情。</span></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiZ74rP3SxFKvnkm5Lhtb-Z8Rylc1NdAaTP42Tl8y30x_EUg0GMCnnJCXbpAnslw0t03ELlnkkINtDbUs71xeO8SVOMYKSqiJThhPP-yaKoe366IEEuNdwLyQUEjjsxlG6XJhR56moiiC4s/s1600/1.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="572" data-original-width="871" height="420" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiZ74rP3SxFKvnkm5Lhtb-Z8Rylc1NdAaTP42Tl8y30x_EUg0GMCnnJCXbpAnslw0t03ELlnkkINtDbUs71xeO8SVOMYKSqiJThhPP-yaKoe366IEEuNdwLyQUEjjsxlG6XJhR56moiiC4s/s640/1.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<span style="font-size: large;">AIRASIA过去两年积极减低债务,Total Borrowing从15Q3的RM13,776 mil减少到17Q1的RM10,249 mil,而现金也从RM2,400 mil增长到RM2,552 mil。</span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgJqzAnzugXMWNLnGyvzdRaxQlRZpRcFdeUNg0jfy8WOGAXhMrrLCHRrycmvvG98-HYuFonEgYeIG8ePM7iMnK6A5l4aTQv3vfIvKQNkoCLwmXSzyqPnPNpq9X-TZJa0kFJB-URAedZzN81/s1600/2.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="450" data-original-width="751" height="382" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgJqzAnzugXMWNLnGyvzdRaxQlRZpRcFdeUNg0jfy8WOGAXhMrrLCHRrycmvvG98-HYuFonEgYeIG8ePM7iMnK6A5l4aTQv3vfIvKQNkoCLwmXSzyqPnPNpq9X-TZJa0kFJB-URAedZzN81/s640/2.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<span style="font-size: large;">因此Net Gearing Ratio也从当初的2.98下滑到17Q1的1.27倍。</span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjtCr7nrjq0UcAkiaceF9uVU5meCBpv8kXOr3xrlAULVV9GbBasqANFiwy0JaiYPoFk68e0KgWJv6WVCZDYYf3xLpddN5SFDnwBpKy5RjVCUIQ9L8UYjzy0rC_-BuIsxBhRI7xXps6Nd3MZ/s1600/14.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="450" data-original-width="923" height="312" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjtCr7nrjq0UcAkiaceF9uVU5meCBpv8kXOr3xrlAULVV9GbBasqANFiwy0JaiYPoFk68e0KgWJv6WVCZDYYf3xLpddN5SFDnwBpKy5RjVCUIQ9L8UYjzy0rC_-BuIsxBhRI7xXps6Nd3MZ/s640/14.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<span style="font-size: large;">由于债务不断下滑,AIRASIA在2016年的Financial Cost - 银行利息减少到RM518.964 mil,比2015足足下滑了RM205.071 mil。AIRASIA在FY2016在</span><span style="font-size: large;">Aircraft Fuel Expenses以及</span><span style="font-size: large;">Financial Cost就剩下了RM627 mil。</span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiFhGSsbOD4sl3cUjhmVM97BM46Hil9YZp_p8-H3GDNc6iskR7OC8O6HsF2kJ0mkPz7N-C3gZxM2fwLM0o7_3V4y8Wt3DKUT8JpwAme1v39TK7oMHY9B7oMUiw7bZD9zlsB8PJj36Ox3fYT/s1600/10.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="627" data-original-width="805" height="498" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiFhGSsbOD4sl3cUjhmVM97BM46Hil9YZp_p8-H3GDNc6iskR7OC8O6HsF2kJ0mkPz7N-C3gZxM2fwLM0o7_3V4y8Wt3DKUT8JpwAme1v39TK7oMHY9B7oMUiw7bZD9zlsB8PJj36Ox3fYT/s640/10.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<span style="font-size: large;">而公司的Net Cash Flow在印尼,菲律宾,泰国以及马来西亚航空的支撑下得到了质的进步。2017Q1的Net Cash Flow高达RM840.684 mil,也使到公司的现金流有了明显的改善。</span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhr4DY0LlAhIypuQQy3yFkKg8W9SvdEcxd652YVjjvyr68-SETfwCq7fJioeTqwAObda7gqOM20NOpQMfWf-vz1v6otGFRXC6ks9qaklSRe_zYnZfiRX_3YKpK2SCp7u3df-qcnS6REeImA/s1600/3.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="452" data-original-width="752" height="384" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhr4DY0LlAhIypuQQy3yFkKg8W9SvdEcxd652YVjjvyr68-SETfwCq7fJioeTqwAObda7gqOM20NOpQMfWf-vz1v6otGFRXC6ks9qaklSRe_zYnZfiRX_3YKpK2SCp7u3df-qcnS6REeImA/s640/3.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<span style="font-size: large;">AIRASIA连续4个季度(15Q4 - 16Q3) 面临Negative Cash Flow</span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;">之后,主要是因为FY2016偿还了RM3,039 mil的Borrowing,扣除RM832.2 mil新的银行贷款,公司Net Pay了RM2,207 mil的Borrowing。</span><br />
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<span style="font-size: large;">17Q1因为</span><span style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: large;">Proceeds from
issuance of shares获得RM1006.200 mil的现金,所以公司的现金流呈现Posotive。</span></span><br />
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<span style="font-size: x-large;"><b> <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=leDGhS1Zm-U">AIRASA - 2017Q1 </a></b></span><br />
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="text-align: center;">以上是AIRASIA在Q1的Q&A 环节,</span></span><span style="line-height: 107%;">TONY</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">说到,印尼亚航,菲律宾亚航,泰国亚航以及大马亚航的盈利不断增长,公司有这</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">4</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">架引擎为公司带来源源不绝的现金流。所以</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">AAC</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">卖出之后钱最大的可能会留在</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">Balance Sheet</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">里备用,或者</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">share buy back</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">以及派发特别股息,而不是用来偿还债务。</span></span><br />
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">为什么要</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">Share Buy Back</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">呢??因为</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">Tony</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">一路以来都认为自己的公司严重被低估,</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">Share Buck Back</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">会让公司变得更有价值。</span></span></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhU7QBQaDNguoyHcRBuKDZkySXP1opbh7ZlyrPGi5ipV_2ZcLtJAjliBBLhyphenhyphenHx_cKhCCiZ2NJ50Yx0IS6-wEcLJNBjLonQdlTalzCoFaomfzWR5xug4Piw8Pby2e0i99-wOsy6qlnzGBG5p/s1600/4.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="177" data-original-width="1041" height="108" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhU7QBQaDNguoyHcRBuKDZkySXP1opbh7ZlyrPGi5ipV_2ZcLtJAjliBBLhyphenhyphenHx_cKhCCiZ2NJ50Yx0IS6-wEcLJNBjLonQdlTalzCoFaomfzWR5xug4Piw8Pby2e0i99-wOsy6qlnzGBG5p/s640/4.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">上图是</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">KLIA 2</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">在</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">4 – 6</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">月份的乘客流量,</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">3</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">个的</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">YOY</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">的增长介于</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">11.6% - 19.1%</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">。以</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">Quarter</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">来看,</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">YOY</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">增加了</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">15.7%, </span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">而</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">QOQ</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">则比上个季度的</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">7.172 mil</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">乘客增长了</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">2.65%</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">,达到</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">7.362 mil</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">的乘客。</span></span><b><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhSd8D_Mqo56uN8ud3Be4aYblLyj2ygUrPvfhZzVAIqBvFfDvhbXiO8QJszL8Ug1vq3r_HUy-gZRuZ7Q5SIvFPVlGMcCePOyz205DLxx4jTMdUapZHkK4xV672kk9bvzId5x1PqMIWnI5nS/s1600/5.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="582" data-original-width="933" height="398" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhSd8D_Mqo56uN8ud3Be4aYblLyj2ygUrPvfhZzVAIqBvFfDvhbXiO8QJszL8Ug1vq3r_HUy-gZRuZ7Q5SIvFPVlGMcCePOyz205DLxx4jTMdUapZHkK4xV672kk9bvzId5x1PqMIWnI5nS/s640/5.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span style="line-height: 107%;">KLIA2</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">的主要的航空公司是</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">AIRASIA</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">以及</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">AAX, </span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">而</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">JETSTAR, TIGER AIR</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">以及</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">CEBU PACIFIC</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">只占了很小的份额。因此乘客流量增加也意味着</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">AIRASIA</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">的机票销售很不错。</span></span><b><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span style="line-height: 107%;">AIRASIA</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">去年</span><v:shapetype coordsize="21600,21600" filled="f" id="_x0000_t75" o:preferrelative="t" o:spt="75" path="m@4@5l@4@11@9@11@9@5xe" stroked="f">
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</w:wrap></span></v:imagedata></v:shape><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="line-height: 107%;">Q2</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">的营业额是最近</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">5</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">个季度里最差的一个季度,而</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">17Q1</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">的营业额则是历史新高。现在</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">Q2</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">的机场乘客流量比</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">17Q1</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">增长了</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">2.65%</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">,</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">YOY</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">增长了</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">15.7%</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">。理论上</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">AIRASIA</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">在</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">Q2</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">的营业额应该会比去年同期优秀,达到RM1,800 mil以上的营业并非难事。</span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><b><span style="line-height: 107%;">AIRASIA</span></b><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">的营业额只要来自机票销售,行李运送费,出租飞机业务以及其他营业额</span></b><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="line-height: 107%;"> </span></b><b><i><span style="color: #00b0f0; line-height: 107%;">(Other revenue includes assigned seat, freight,
cancellation, documentation, surcharges and other fees and the on-board sale of
meals and merchandise.)</span></i></b><b><span style="line-height: 107%;"><o:p></o:p></span></b></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">机票的销售很明显在</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">Q1</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">有了飞跃性的增长,从之前的</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">RM1,248 mil</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">增长到</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">RM1,558 mil</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">。</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">Baggage fees</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">也从</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">RM142 mil</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">进步到</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">RM209.2 mil</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">,</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">QOQ</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">增长超过</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">40%</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">,这有可能是</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">AIRASIA</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">对</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">7 KG Hand Carry</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">的限制所导致。乘客无奈下只能</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">check in</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">行李,间接刺激营业额走高。</span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span style="line-height: 107%;">Other Revenue</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">的增长也非常惊人,因为现在</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">duty free</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">产品,</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">Rocky Wifi</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">,飞机餐以及饮料的销量都很好。随着乘客的成长,</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">Other Revenue</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">将会保持证正面成长。</span><span style="line-height: 107%;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span style="line-height: 107%;">AIRASIA</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">预计会卖出</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">AAC </span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">高达</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">80%</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">的股份,未来将会失去出租飞机业务的贡献。不过其余</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">3</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">个业务在</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">Q1</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">都有了【质】的进步,因此可以抵消出租飞机业务的影响。</span></span><b><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg4v-7YSj4MLDJtKDsoOglMU6lviFmNb24RHf4kz9FjEb9Oxy16sxS4xfDa4eglyzXGUf46kRgXR5abl4Xvym5eNlupYwtLUGrkBkw4cceC_K1GIKYSD-5M7_VxFPRtmhMgAKbToaamMPHc/s1600/9.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="597" data-original-width="845" height="452" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg4v-7YSj4MLDJtKDsoOglMU6lviFmNb24RHf4kz9FjEb9Oxy16sxS4xfDa4eglyzXGUf46kRgXR5abl4Xvym5eNlupYwtLUGrkBkw4cceC_K1GIKYSD-5M7_VxFPRtmhMgAKbToaamMPHc/s640/9.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: "calibri" , sans-serif; line-height: 107%;">AIRASIA</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">的展望也非常乐观,公司预计大马</span><span style="font-family: "calibri" , sans-serif; line-height: 107%;">Q2</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">的</span><span style="font-family: "calibri" , sans-serif; line-height: 107%;">Load
factor</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">将会从</span><span style="font-family: "calibri" , sans-serif; line-height: 107%;">Q1</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">的</span><span style="font-family: "calibri" , sans-serif; line-height: 107%;">89%</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">进步到</span><span style="font-family: "calibri" , sans-serif; line-height: 107%;">91%</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">。原因是因为</span><span style="font-family: "calibri" , sans-serif; line-height: 107%;">Raya</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">的假期,以及菲律宾新航线扩张的贡献。此外,</span><span style="font-family: "calibri" , sans-serif; line-height: 107%;">2017</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">年预计会增加</span><span style="font-family: "calibri" , sans-serif; line-height: 107%;">29</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">架飞机,这将会近年最快的扩张。此外,管理层展望今年的业绩盈利有机会超越</span><span style="font-family: "calibri" , sans-serif; line-height: 107%;">2016</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">年。</span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="font-family: "simsun"; font-size: large;">全球航空公司的PE介于8 - 15之间不等,而AIRASIA现在的PE只有6.11左右,估值其实并不昂贵。投资者过去对AIRASIA的忧虑有两个,分别是外汇亏损以及过高的债务。</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "simsun"; font-size: large;">AIRASIA在2014Q4因为美金走高而导致RM647.560 mil的外汇亏损,因此管理层在外汇以及油价的对冲 -Hedging采取了足够的防范措施把伤害减到最低。</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "simsun"; font-size: large;"><b>TONY说过以下几个利好消息:</b></span><br />
<ul>
<li><span style="font-family: "simsun"; font-size: large;"><b>卖掉AAC,然后派发特别股息,未来每两年派发特别股息</b></span></li>
<li><span style="font-family: "simsun"; font-size: large;"><b>菲律宾亚航预计在今年年底或者明年Q1上市。</b></span></li>
<li><span style="font-family: "simsun"; font-size: large;"><b>未来两年成立ONE AIRASIA GROUP, 壮大公司的规模</b></span></li>
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<span style="font-family: "simsun"; font-size: large;">不过年头TONY也说要在香港上市,结果影子没有一个。</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "simsun"; font-size: large;">AIRASIA管理层也说AAC的潜在买家已经剩下两个,肯定会在年底或更早的时间内完成这项交易。</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "simsun"; font-size: large;">AIRASIA是一家充满争议性的公司,有人相信TONY就选择买进AIRASIA,有人说TONY是骗子,所以选择看衰AIRASIA。股市本就是如此,有人看好必定有人看淡,选择在你手中。</span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhk_4F64bMCAgVcxo9PvHyWmpfMz-Fy59rUyh9UmxOd9Q_CBJn66dTxVKRHWbq0LII76M7FieZXYg5DUX9MbltBo0yFFqHGoFPqm3kP9Y8HJKU0RKNSAMiGzJX8S51zPkq7iph2XfbIY91R/s1600/15.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="775" data-original-width="623" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhk_4F64bMCAgVcxo9PvHyWmpfMz-Fy59rUyh9UmxOd9Q_CBJn66dTxVKRHWbq0LII76M7FieZXYg5DUX9MbltBo0yFFqHGoFPqm3kP9Y8HJKU0RKNSAMiGzJX8S51zPkq7iph2XfbIY91R/s640/15.jpg" width="514" /></a></div>
<span style="font-family: "simsun"; font-size: large;">TONY在7月14日post了3条tweets,他说Looking great for 17Q2,Growing and growing。足足说了两次【成长】,8月业绩出炉我们就知道他有没有【仙家】。</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "simsun"; font-size: large;">以上是笔者的功课,如有不足之处,请大家多多包涵。</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "simsun"; font-size: x-large;"><b><i>以上纯属分享,买卖请自负。任何投资上的亏损,恕本人不负责。</i></b></span></div>
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<b style="font-size: x-large;"><span style="line-height: 25.68px;">Harryt30</span></b><br />
<b style="font-size: x-large;"><span style="line-height: 25.68px;">15.21p.m.</span></b><br />
<b style="font-size: x-large;"><span style="line-height: 25.68px;">2017.07.24</span></b><br />
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H@rryhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05027352948099378525noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1963488445754456476.post-12431365198851635692017-07-20T16:46:00.001+08:002017-07-20T16:54:56.935+08:001405. 【一路发懒人包】- 168家Net Cash Position的上市公司,Cash Is King!!<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
<span style="font-size: large;">之前笔者在Facebook页面分享的Net Cash Position公司获得了读者们热烈的反响,因此笔者花了几天的时间整理出其中168家净现金公司。今天就在此分享这个懒人包给大家,希望可以帮助到读者们。而这些数据都是笔者从每家公司最新的季度报告里找出来,Share出去的同时请说明出处来自Harry的涂鸦笔记本。</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">如果你觉得这份资料非常有用,请不要懒惰在FACEBOOK页面按SHARE让更多人获益。</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: x-large;">Net Cash Position = Total Cash - Total Borrowing<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: x-large;">Cash Per Share (CPS) = Net Cash / Share Outstanding<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">净现金的重要性:</span></div>
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<ul>
<li><span style="font-size: large;">公司在扩张时不用跟银行借钱,可以减少银行利息的开销。 - 例子: HUPSENG, MAGNI, SLP等公司。</span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: large;">派息比较大方,因为拥有充裕的现金流,偶尔还可以派发特别股息。 例子:SAM, SUPERLN, KMLOONG</span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: large;">大部分的科技公司都处于Net Cash,他们可以利用这笔钱来研发新产品,R&D以及引进最新颖的机器。例子 : MPI, INARI, KESM, UNISEM等等。</span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: large;">股价会比负债高的公司来得稳定,因为在Asset里,最珍贵的无疑是现金 - CASH。例子 : UCHITEC, CBIP, HLIND等。</span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: large;">在金融风暴的是有有能力【吃掉】其他资金周转不灵的公司,壮大自己。</span></li>
</ul>
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<span style="font-size: large;">以下4张图表是168家公司的资料:</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><b><i>**资料截至2017年7月20日</i></b></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">https://t.me/harryt30tybjb</span><o:p></o:p></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">Harryt30</span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;">16.50p.m.</span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;">2017.07.20</span><br />
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<br />H@rryhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05027352948099378525noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1963488445754456476.post-70165000701584764022017-07-17T13:55:00.003+08:002017-07-17T14:38:59.663+08:001404.【美德17连霸】- MITRA(9571)手握1,730 Mil订单,PE =7.03的,是否有被低估的嫌疑?<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
<span style="font-size: large;">今天会跟大家分享MITRA(9571) 这家建筑公司,不过在进入正题之前,笔者要给读者们看看10家建筑股的数据。</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><b><i>**以下数据是截至2017年7月17日12.30p.m的数据</i></b></span></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi41_rz-8ohz9qtjxZfIvVK_-_r6DOeXU1KhgObBf1bKE-JlnUQczGu9B5BjO7XdUr2LSpQfU62w_N6IufaupwdPIFoXJULmBowzsncqYj4RnnH1C7NotcZ1f7e2ezAKcaMlYO96bPBRsNp/s1600/A1.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="292" data-original-width="682" height="274" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi41_rz-8ohz9qtjxZfIvVK_-_r6DOeXU1KhgObBf1bKE-JlnUQczGu9B5BjO7XdUr2LSpQfU62w_N6IufaupwdPIFoXJULmBowzsncqYj4RnnH1C7NotcZ1f7e2ezAKcaMlYO96bPBRsNp/s640/A1.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">上图是建筑领域里最赚钱的其中10家公司,而MITRA的市值排名第9名。</span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg5BiGR9pb5bwgbm_FLfAQQN9S8DrP3BmDr2SoTeOXUBZBQyEHjn6ntdXj5WuOptPWOyvFSVOlcHi5dui8Wub1ZBZGuKrTT1n5eomPPfcghOvpj2MCCDVujKyDJITL8xaqOJOidUcHBMsvp/s1600/A2.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="292" data-original-width="682" height="274" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg5BiGR9pb5bwgbm_FLfAQQN9S8DrP3BmDr2SoTeOXUBZBQyEHjn6ntdXj5WuOptPWOyvFSVOlcHi5dui8Wub1ZBZGuKrTT1n5eomPPfcghOvpj2MCCDVujKyDJITL8xaqOJOidUcHBMsvp/s640/A2.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<span style="font-size: large;">但是在这10家公司里,MITRA的盈利却是10家公司里排名第5,仅仅比IJM, GAMUDA,EKOVEST以及SUNCON低。</span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgs6XVdkhGLDWsFJFbIT16uBDB-iv2SHufH-HNY8c8Tsoqn-msbnxcn-41gVG9QUvQf3H531N-ylPZJxZ7o2P6CEkXaQnz3pIagC6fSVcTVmAx0l1cbwauKk4JtaUIs1xaGNnUpm9kYfgQB/s1600/a3.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="292" data-original-width="682" height="274" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgs6XVdkhGLDWsFJFbIT16uBDB-iv2SHufH-HNY8c8Tsoqn-msbnxcn-41gVG9QUvQf3H531N-ylPZJxZ7o2P6CEkXaQnz3pIagC6fSVcTVmAx0l1cbwauKk4JtaUIs1xaGNnUpm9kYfgQB/s640/a3.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">此外,MITRA的PE只有7.03是所以公司里PE最低的,MITRA是否有被低估的嫌疑呢? 那我们就看看这家公司过往的发展以及未来的前景了。</span><br />
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<span style="font-size: large;">笔者追踪MITRA(9571)这家建筑公司已经超过3年的时间,本身也出席过2次美德再也的股东大会。老板【标哥】是Engineer出身,过去承诺过的事情,基本上可以Deliver 90%以上给股东,是一位有能力又值得信赖的企业家。</span><br />
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<span style="font-size: large;">公司的股价自从在2015年8月分派发2送1红股之后,股价就一直徘徊在RM1.25 – 1.45之间,股价多次挑战RM1.45却一直都不成功。</span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg5yzSRw9tLp6nq2T1T4npkkmwHAZgO_MRlAt3ZSHCgQlbhM2eTdL1kB1KoVgn5_3DkzxmQWoWwFJ8USEldJU7zi_g_JYSnSQ0pGDhnJqw66qfYyeRt-4PrpE8CST95_ulJfn-o2wzp5nSe/s1600/343.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="581" data-original-width="1064" height="348" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg5yzSRw9tLp6nq2T1T4npkkmwHAZgO_MRlAt3ZSHCgQlbhM2eTdL1kB1KoVgn5_3DkzxmQWoWwFJ8USEldJU7zi_g_JYSnSQ0pGDhnJqw66qfYyeRt-4PrpE8CST95_ulJfn-o2wzp5nSe/s640/343.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; font-size: large; line-height: 107%;">回归基本面,公司的营业额已经连续</span><span style="font-size: large; line-height: 107%;">4</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; font-size: large; line-height: 107%;">年都在进步。截至</span><span style="font-size: large; line-height: 107%;">FY17Q1</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; font-size: large; line-height: 107%;">的全年的</span><span style="font-size: large; line-height: 107%;">Net Profit</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; font-size: large; line-height: 107%;">高达</span><span style="font-size: large; line-height: 107%;">RM128 mil</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; font-size: large; line-height: 107%;">,在建筑领域里排名前</span><span style="font-size: large; line-height: 107%;">5</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; font-size: large; line-height: 107%;">。而且公司从2013Q1至今就保持YOY增长的记录,已经维持了整整17个季度,是一家稳定成长的公司。</span><br />
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<span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; font-size: large; line-height: 107%;">不过公司在</span><span style="font-size: large; line-height: 107%;">2016Q4</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; font-size: large; line-height: 107%;">以及</span><span style="font-size: large; line-height: 107%;">17Q1</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; font-size: large; line-height: 107%;">获得</span><span style="font-size: large; line-height: 107%;">RM22.66 mil</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; font-size: large; line-height: 107%;">的卖地赔偿</span><span style="font-size: large; line-height: 107%;"> (</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; font-size: large; line-height: 107%;">卖掉</span><span style="font-size: large; line-height: 107%;">Pengerang</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; font-size: large; line-height: 107%;">,</span><span style="font-size: large; line-height: 107%;">Johor</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; font-size: large; line-height: 107%;">的地皮给政府</span><span style="font-size: large; line-height: 107%;">) </span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; font-size: large; line-height: 107%;">,扣除</span><span style="font-size: large; line-height: 107%;">Tax</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; font-size: large; line-height: 107%;">之后,一次性的卖地</span><span style="font-size: large; line-height: 107%;">Net Profit</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; font-size: large; line-height: 107%;">大约是</span><span style="font-size: large; line-height: 107%;">RM17 mil</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; font-size: large; line-height: 107%;">。</span><br />
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<span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; font-size: large; line-height: 107%;">所以公司的</span><span style="font-size: large; line-height: 107%;">Pure Operating Net Profit = RM111 mil</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; font-size: large; line-height: 107%;">,每股盈利</span><span style="font-size: large; line-height: 107%;"> = 16.5</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; font-size: large; line-height: 107%;">分,</span><span style="font-size: large; line-height: 107%;">PE</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; font-size: large; line-height: 107%;">相等于</span><span style="font-size: large; line-height: 107%;">8.00</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; font-size: large; line-height: 107%;">。以规模以及获利能力来看,</span><span style="font-size: large; line-height: 107%;">MITRA</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; font-size: large; line-height: 107%;">在</span><span style="font-size: large; line-height: 107%;">2014 – 2015</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; font-size: large; line-height: 107%;">年的</span><span style="font-size: large; line-height: 107%;">PE</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; font-size: large; line-height: 107%;">是</span><span style="font-size: large; line-height: 107%;">10 左</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; font-size: large; line-height: 107%;">右,现在还是处于被低估的状态。</span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgmaEbGlzLwqq4d55GIEoVyB7ljww1YzgDG2mFYrKvNb9md1VfTvC4gh_mGvSLo82lqXVdy26zEL-esf9rm-yg2IzRCnfgllx7Kg74GS99f_V7o8fHBDvhT0WJ-YzOnT77ok1TbPlLkDlpn/s1600/M2.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1190" data-original-width="1351" height="562" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgmaEbGlzLwqq4d55GIEoVyB7ljww1YzgDG2mFYrKvNb9md1VfTvC4gh_mGvSLo82lqXVdy26zEL-esf9rm-yg2IzRCnfgllx7Kg74GS99f_V7o8fHBDvhT0WJ-YzOnT77ok1TbPlLkDlpn/s640/M2.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<span style="font-size: large;"> <b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">上图是</span></b><b><span style="line-height: 107%;">MITRA</span></b><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">资产债务表的</span></b><b><span style="line-height: 107%;">Summary</span></b><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">:</span></b></span><br />
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<span lang="ZH-CN" style="line-height: 107%;">公司在</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">2017Q1</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="line-height: 107%;">的营业额突破了历史新高,根据以往的惯例,</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">Q1</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="line-height: 107%;">都是最差的一个季度。最新季度营业额上升但盈利下滑是因为公司在</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">Q1</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="line-height: 107%;">完成的工程</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">Profit Margin</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="line-height: 107%;">偏低。</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: large;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="line-height: 107%;">现在手握</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">RM1,730 mil</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="line-height: 107%;">的建筑合约,现阶段</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">MITRA</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="line-height: 107%;">已经取得</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">4</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="line-height: 107%;">亿令吉的新合约,尚有价值</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">2</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="line-height: 107%;">亿令吉的合约还在洽谈,料有望增加新订单至</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">7</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="line-height: 107%;">亿令吉。假设这笔合约成功的话,</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">MITRA</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="line-height: 107%;">的合约有望达到</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">20</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="line-height: 107%;">亿令吉。</span></span></div>
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<li><span style="font-size: large;">除了以上的合约,公司也在竞标着30亿的新合约,当中27亿是建筑合约,3亿是基建的大合约。以MITRA过往优秀的竞标成功率,公司今年的目标是竞标到10亿或者更多的新合约。</span></li>
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<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: large;"><span style="line-height: 107%;">IBS</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="line-height: 107%;">建材将会是未来的趋势,政府现在强制性要求发展商以及建筑公司使用</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">IBS</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="line-height: 107%;">,这不只可以节省劳工费用,也可以减低材料成本并获得政府的</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">Tax </span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="line-height: 107%;">津贴。公司在过往</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">2</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="line-height: 107%;">年积极投资新建筑器材以及</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">IBS</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="line-height: 107%;">系统,资本开销增加至</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">8,000</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="line-height: 107%;">万令吉,不过预计今年估计只有</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">2,000</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="line-height: 107%;">万。因此</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">MITRA</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="line-height: 107%;">可以借此优势去竞标更多的工程合约,未来1 - 2年的前景值得期许。</span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: large;"><span style="line-height: 107%;">MITRA</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="line-height: 107%;">现在的</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">Total Borrowing</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="line-height: 107%;">高达</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">RM286 mil</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="line-height: 107%;">,相等于</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">Borrowing Per Share = 43
cent</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="line-height: 107%;">。不过在资本开销减少的情况下,管理层有信心在未来</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">2 – 3</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="line-height: 107%;">年减低债务。现在的</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">Debt to Equity Ratio</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="line-height: 107%;">以及</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">Gearing Ratio</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="line-height: 107%;">分别是</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">0.44</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="line-height: 107%;">以及</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">0.33</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="line-height: 107%;">,在建筑领域是属于可以接受的范围。</span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: large;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="line-height: 107%;">不过需要注意的一点是公司</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">Trade Receivable</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="line-height: 107%;">从两年前的</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">RM192 mil</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="line-height: 107%;">增长到现在的</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">RM587.886 mil</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="line-height: 107%;">,足足增加了</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">200%</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="line-height: 107%;">。欠账增长的速度远远超过营业额增长的速度,因此这点是一个隐忧,代表着公司很难收回账。</span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: large;"><span style="line-height: 107%;">MITRA-WC</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="line-height: 107%;">在</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">2016</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="line-height: 107%;">年到期,这导致股票数量增加,而每股盈利也因此被</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">Dilute</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="line-height: 107%;">,这可能是导致去年股价横摆不前的原因之一。</span></span><b style="font-weight: bold;"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
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<span style="font-size: x-large;"><b>总结:</b></span></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgGTyBcJ1m3O7ov0Yn76iEtfso6W8OY3qlk67m3VHOUMuMUxBVcG3pfyQPvG-bLuj28xl_26oLmEqWDVAsvvQvH-CFgGeqvPrXIyUIzCvnCP3sIGZAgi5nkx93JfLQLmnKsTgRgPjdrW-X9/s1600/M3.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="437" data-original-width="778" height="358" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgGTyBcJ1m3O7ov0Yn76iEtfso6W8OY3qlk67m3VHOUMuMUxBVcG3pfyQPvG-bLuj28xl_26oLmEqWDVAsvvQvH-CFgGeqvPrXIyUIzCvnCP3sIGZAgi5nkx93JfLQLmnKsTgRgPjdrW-X9/s640/M3.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span style="line-height: 107%;">MITRA</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">的盈利已经连续</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">17</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">个季度</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">YOY</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">保持成长,但是股价却一直停滞不前。</span></span><span style="font-size: large; line-height: 107%;">MITRA</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; font-size: large; line-height: 107%;">在</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; font-size: large; line-height: 107%;">1年前的7月15日是RM1.32</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; font-size: large; line-height: 107%;">,一年后的今天才也是</span><span style="font-size: large; line-height: 107%;">RM1.32 <b><i>(5仙的股息刚刚在7月14日除权</i></b>), 持有1年的股东<span style="font-family: "simsun";">赚了</span></span><span style="font-size: large; line-height: 107%;">5</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; font-size: large; line-height: 107%;">仙的股息之外什么也没有赚到</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; font-size: large; line-height: 107%;">。</span></div>
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<span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; font-size: large; line-height: 107%;">现在MIRA的盈利是历史新高,可是股价距离新高的</span><span style="font-size: large; line-height: 107%;">RM1.45</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; font-size: large; line-height: 107%;">还有10</span><span style="font-size: large; line-height: 107%;">%</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; font-size: large; line-height: 107%;">的空间。这个情况跟去年的MAGNI非常相似,盈利一年4个季度都在增长,但是股价却不升反跌。不过MAGNI在积累了1年之后,股价在今年终于爆发了75%之多。MITRA是否可以步上MAGNI的后尘,那就让时间证明吧。</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">建筑业务是</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">MITRA</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">的主要业务,公司今年的目标是【至少竞标到</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">10</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">亿令吉】的合约。而且</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">2017</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">下半年会有许多大型合约颁发,</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">MITRA</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">或许会有机会分到一块肉。</span><span style="line-height: 107%;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">此外,</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">FY2016</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">产业部门的营业额从</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">2015</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">年的</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">RM55.186 mil</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">增长到</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">RM89.641 mil</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">,</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">PBT</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">也从</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">RM1.643 mil</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">增长到</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">RM26.607 Mil</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">。最新的季度当中,未进账的产业销售从去年</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">Q4</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">的</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">RM160.81 mil </span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">上升到</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">RM204.31 mil</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">。而且管理层在</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">Prospect</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">里也说到产业部门在</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">FY2017</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">会贡献更多的营业额,加上最近才在</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">Puchong</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">推出了</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">PRIMA</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">可负担房屋,</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">2017</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">年的产业盈利贡献有可能会是一支【奇兵】。</span><span style="line-height: 107%;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">南非的业务在</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">2017</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">年预计会疲软,因为未卖出的产业是比较贵的。现在有</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">RM7.25 mil</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">的</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">Unbilled sales</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">在手,盈利贡献明显早下滑。</span><span style="line-height: 107%;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span style="line-height: 107%;">MITRA</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">现在的下探空间非常有限</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">,但是上涨空间却非常值得期待。</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">HLG</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">给的</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">Target Price</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">是</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">RM1.89,因此</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">这家公司不宜短线操作,需要耐心持守才能获得回报</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">。</span></span><span style="color: #00b0f0; font-size: 22pt; font-weight: bold; line-height: 107%;"><o:p></o:p></span><br />
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<span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;"><span style="font-size: x-large;"><b><i><u>以上纯属分享,买卖请自负!</u></i></b></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">Harryt30</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">13.55p.m.</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">2017.07.17</span></div>
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H@rryhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05027352948099378525noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1963488445754456476.post-66988947093359350122017-07-05T14:08:00.003+08:002017-07-05T14:08:59.038+08:001403.【绝世霸龙】- SUPERLN(7235) 投资USD 4 mil越南设厂,FY2018营业额盈利预计再破历史新高!<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEijETLBWSW7q-8X7ZUNs3tCoj8TWqbR2kDnb_F3kagQj07JBW5bAvOyzilPT7pQy6SB1E1E9AOl-YqtAu41LnE9BCU8wFGyFlYkkr3aI8E4PQwYrZDbZCUc7ust5sNNOoggSyHb5R_Y_Pax/s1600/1.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="649" data-original-width="1029" height="402" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEijETLBWSW7q-8X7ZUNs3tCoj8TWqbR2kDnb_F3kagQj07JBW5bAvOyzilPT7pQy6SB1E1E9AOl-YqtAu41LnE9BCU8wFGyFlYkkr3aI8E4PQwYrZDbZCUc7ust5sNNOoggSyHb5R_Y_Pax/s640/1.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<span style="font-size: large;">SUPERLN(7235)在6月20日交出了非常惊艳的业绩,营业额以及盈利都突破了历史新高。而且单个季度的营业额从之前最高的RM25.801 mil增长到RM32.546 mil,足足增长了26.14%。虽然营业增长了许多,大家有没有发觉盈利QOQ之增长了区区RM0.117 mil。</span><br />
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<span style="font-size: large;">之前参加了不少股东大会,了解到不少华资企业会选择在年终或者每年的1-3月派发花红。因此笔者【推测】公司Net Profit Margin下滑是因为Bonus等开销,这种情况也曾经发生在FY2016的Q4, 连续2年的Q4的Net Profit Margin都是1年的低谷。</span><br />
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<span style="font-size: large;">不过SUPERLN未来2年的成长非常值得期待,因为管理层很积极地扩张海外的市场以及提升Operating Profit Margin。</span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg5ewKlZ93zYAp063Ap8NiwkivPGwomr3cgET7q_AEp-zbnUoc0UUg7uchmYIEEvFE0H_wMJO7OXfvOTaGaW1FCyd1lml41Id5y8IyK9T1zFgLR2xkSRsoIg1SN4ZTOg0Tx3wgmcuvgm0sZ/s1600/8.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="575" data-original-width="1123" height="326" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg5ewKlZ93zYAp063Ap8NiwkivPGwomr3cgET7q_AEp-zbnUoc0UUg7uchmYIEEvFE0H_wMJO7OXfvOTaGaW1FCyd1lml41Id5y8IyK9T1zFgLR2xkSRsoIg1SN4ZTOg0Tx3wgmcuvgm0sZ/s640/8.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<span style="font-size: large;">虽然公司的在FY2017的营业额只增长了18%,但是Net Profit却增长了42%。笔者非常感叹这家公司的Profit Margin,在5月的EGM也发问过这个问题。管理层表示公司的规模较小,所以可以有效的控制成本以及提升效率,而且未来还是会持续改善Profit Margin。</span><br />
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<span style="font-size: large;">此外,管理层的目标是营业额每年增长10%,因此FY2018的营业额有望冲击历史新高的RM120 mil。此外,由于产量加大会产生Economies of Scales的效果,Operating也会有增长的空间。</span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhxZ15S9X_t2Dc6iXXQzshubqe3n7InY-hG5fmWvbQ-4htzA6pit45FLMvywe54pXYHqNlLOHP0W_iajTIRAE4X3F-VEk2DpMBBVl-ODrIJuMUVoAnJ9OklH2Up9zxFGSfvtjw9sWWnrTd1/s1600/2.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="482" data-original-width="885" height="348" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhxZ15S9X_t2Dc6iXXQzshubqe3n7InY-hG5fmWvbQ-4htzA6pit45FLMvywe54pXYHqNlLOHP0W_iajTIRAE4X3F-VEk2DpMBBVl-ODrIJuMUVoAnJ9OklH2Up9zxFGSfvtjw9sWWnrTd1/s640/2.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<span style="font-size: large;">公司的全年盈利已经连续11个季度保持成长,可以看得出管理层真的非常用心地创造价值来回馈股东。在新Warehouse的贡献下,预计FY2018会继续攀登新的高峰。</span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh0T8h-GeqwuUDb6XIaYpmvtgM8CAWdk4YJqjEEyxSZYposk1WXYWK8KR1xWkjCJ_Z5rCQRySZcqB0TzzVgtC2qIO2Afi3VbOY2a4X9Ud4_V4tmjzKuBgPAtHODCGXQ45wGOqKg2xbV3NLQ/s1600/4.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="173" data-original-width="801" height="138" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh0T8h-GeqwuUDb6XIaYpmvtgM8CAWdk4YJqjEEyxSZYposk1WXYWK8KR1xWkjCJ_Z5rCQRySZcqB0TzzVgtC2qIO2Afi3VbOY2a4X9Ud4_V4tmjzKuBgPAtHODCGXQ45wGOqKg2xbV3NLQ/s640/4.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<span style="font-size: large;">公司在FY2017投入了RM15.015 mil在买进新机器以及建设仓库,这就是公司保持成长的底气。此外,Investing cash flow出现了Prepaid lease payments for land,这笔开销有可能是用来租借越南的地皮来建设新厂。</span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjhhqddke35eTyhyphenhyphenDCf7jMW2SlSCtf4cxFpjzV79YMnnFT84gyrv1Nhu8wQ-pe8M9bfESyTQmgwHKlJkj-6IrLu441QhJ7WMSpQFHyJNTmWWUkzNNh2sSejOgSI6MQ_OSfaq_P6RMXqk-na/s1600/6.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="579" data-original-width="805" height="460" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjhhqddke35eTyhyphenhyphenDCf7jMW2SlSCtf4cxFpjzV79YMnnFT84gyrv1Nhu8wQ-pe8M9bfESyTQmgwHKlJkj-6IrLu441QhJ7WMSpQFHyJNTmWWUkzNNh2sSejOgSI6MQ_OSfaq_P6RMXqk-na/s640/6.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">跟1年前相比,PPE从RM56.3 mil增长到RM71.52 mil,而且公司的Inventories (存货)也从RM9.594 mil增加一倍到最新季度的RM19.796 mil。因为新的仓库开始运作,所以SUPERLN有更多的空间存放存货,同时也可以接更大的订单。</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">公司拥有RM37.344 mil的现金,扣除RM7.927 mil的总借贷,公司手握RM29.417 mil的Net Cash。雄厚的现金流让SUPERLN可以维持丰厚的派息以及不断扩张海外市场,让公司的价值不断提升。</span></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiM-ZLPQ_z3jdlXihjyN6f6hW-_Urk1VTTRy81JXlCqQuDRISUC68bxy1UI4Tp82D_ABfupitX52JEvs027ATN_UYnVpbaoalx2JDXhaY8EqqfeBZDAQWDYYi1IM4J_CDkpG-pRvYIUI_k_/s1600/3.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="193" data-original-width="835" height="146" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiM-ZLPQ_z3jdlXihjyN6f6hW-_Urk1VTTRy81JXlCqQuDRISUC68bxy1UI4Tp82D_ABfupitX52JEvs027ATN_UYnVpbaoalx2JDXhaY8EqqfeBZDAQWDYYi1IM4J_CDkpG-pRvYIUI_k_/s640/3.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<span style="font-size: large;">SUPERLN在Prospect里提到,公司将会投资USD 4 mil在越南建设新厂,预计FY2019可以开始贡献盈利。根据媒体的报导,越南的新厂会在FY2018上半年动工(也就是现在),预计FY2019的上半年完成建设,FY2019下半年开始运作。而FY2019的Q3就是在2018年11月,这意味这1年半后越南新厂就可以开始贡献盈利,FY2019会更加出色亮眼。</span><br />
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<span style="font-size: large;">以现在RM2.25的股价结算,SUPERLN在2017年的涨幅(包括3次股息)高达83.2%。因此笔者预计今年的涨幅跟上半年相比会放缓许多,但是FY2018以及FY2019会更加令人期待。这是一家每年可以保持20%成长的稳健优质股,当股价被不理智的抛售时将会是不错的进场时机。</span><br />
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<span style="font-size: x-large;">以上纯属分享,买卖请自负。</span><br />
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<span style="font-size: large;">Harryt30</span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;">14.10p.m</span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;">2017.07.05</span>H@rryhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05027352948099378525noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1963488445754456476.post-89346173283978216542017-06-16T13:15:00.000+08:002017-06-16T13:29:39.320+08:001402.守棕待兔】- JTIASA (4383) 底部复苏,油棕种植业务未来2年【守】出春天!<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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<span style="font-size: large;"> <span style="line-height: 107%;">JTIASA (4383) </span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">主要的业务是木材业以及油棕种植,不过在获得的砍伐认证及永续森林管理限制下,原木供应料受限,因此</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">JTIASA</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">主要的营业额是来自油棕业务。</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">JTIASA</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">在</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">FY2017</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">年</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">3</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">个季度的</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">Net Profit</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">已经超越</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">FY16, </span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">预计</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">FY2018</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">会更加出色。</span></span><br />
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span style="line-height: 107%;">此外,JTIASA</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">在</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">FY17</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">前</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">9</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">个月有</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">55.6%</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">的营业额以及</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">96.6%</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">的</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">Profit Before Tax</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">来自油棕业,</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="line-height: 107%;"> </span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">主要是因为</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">Wood Processing</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">处于亏损的状态。现在的CPO的价格处于下滑的趋势当中,这肯定会影响种植股的Profit Margin。不过笔者询问了几位种植油棕的老前辈,他们都说只要棕油价格保持在RM2,500以上,对种植业就不错了。</span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span style="line-height: 107%;">Q1(7 – 9</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">月</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">) </span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">一向是种植领域的旺季,</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">10</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">月产量开始下滑到</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">2</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">月,过后才会开始复苏。</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">JTIASA</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">最新季度营业额以及盈利都开始见到增长,主要归功于高油棕价格以及各更有效率的</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">Oil Extraction Rate – </span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">棕油提炼率。</span></span><br />
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">从上图可以看到棕油果实的产量是有季节的,不过</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">JTIASA</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">在</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="line-height: 107%;">5</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">月份的</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">CPO – 棕油</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">产量达到了历史新高的</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">16,112 MT</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">,主要是因为</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">OER(%)</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">从</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">10</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">月份的</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">12.47%</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">直线上升到</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">17%以上.</span></span><br />
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span style="line-height: 107%;">OER (%) </span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">走高有可能是因为新的炼油厂已经在</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">2016</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">年底完工,因此4月以及5月的棕油产量连续两个月突破</span></span><span style="font-family: simsun; font-size: large;">历史新高。此外,PALM KERNEL的产量达到3,088 MT,这是第一次超越3,000 MT。主要是因为大部分的油棕树步入成熟期,产量开始增长。</span><br />
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">此外,公司预计FY2017的FFB产量将会达到1,108,610MT,现在11个月生产了916,296 MT, 达到1,020,000 - 1,040,000MT是有可能。要达到之前的预期会有点难度,不过总产量在FY2017还是达到了历史新高,JTIASA预计明年的FFB产量可以增加16%。</span></span><br />
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</w:wrap></span></v:imagedata></v:shape><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="line-height: 107%;">JTIASA</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">最新季度的盈利是</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">5</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">年的新高,营业额也是最近</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">5</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">个季度的巅峰。不过油棕果实的高峰生产期是未来的</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">6</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">个月,这意味着</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">JTIASA</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">未来两个季度还是可以保持高速的增长。而且</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">16Q4 – 17Q1</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">的</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">Net Profit</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">都低于</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">RM20 mil</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">,</span><span style="line-height: 107%;"> JTIASA</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">要超越并不难。</span></span><b><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span style="line-height: 107%;">JTIASA</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">的盈利已经处于</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">5</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">年的新高,但是股价却比今年巅峰的</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">RM1.46</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">下滑到5月16的1.09, </span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">这是不是机会呢??JTIASA的股价最近从底部反弹了接近10%,有可能是市场看到JTIASA油棕业务未来今年的潜力。</span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span style="line-height: 107%;">Q1 – </span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">产量巅峰期</span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span style="line-height: 107%;">Q2 – </span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">产量走低</span><span style="line-height: 107%;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span style="line-height: 107%;">Q3 – </span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">产量复苏</span><span style="line-height: 107%;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span style="line-height: 107%;">Q4 – </span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">产量走高</span><span style="line-height: 107%;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span style="line-height: 107%;">Q3</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">以往的业绩都是很差的,今年在棕油价格走高以及产量增加下,</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">JTIASA</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">的</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">Q3</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">达到了</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">5</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">年新高的单季盈利。而且</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">Q4</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">的产量会持续攀升,</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">Q1</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">的产量会来到巅峰。</span><span style="line-height: 107%;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">整体上,笔者看好</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">JTIASA</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">的油棕业务会在</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">FY2018 ( 2017</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">年</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">7</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">月</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="line-height: 107%;"> </span><span style="line-height: 107%;">– 2018</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">年</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">6</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">月</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">)</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">表现得更为出色。以乐观的角度分析,笔者预计</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">JTIASA</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">的树龄不断成熟的情况下,</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">FY2018</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">的全年盈利有望走高</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">10 – 15%<span style="font-family: "simsun";">。</span></span></span></div>
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<li><b style="text-indent: -18pt;"><span style="font-size: 16pt; line-height: 107%;">Timber</span></b><b style="text-indent: -18pt;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 107%;">的业务可能亏损并拉整体的盈利</span></b></li>
<li><b style="text-indent: -18pt;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 107%;">盈利</span></b><b style="text-indent: -18pt;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 107%;">业绩偶尔缺乏稳定性,偶尔盈利会突然下滑。</span></b></li>
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<b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; font-size: 16.0pt; line-height: 107%;">这是一家【慢热】型的公司,而且种植领域并不是大家都喜欢的一个板块,因此没有耐心以及希望快速获得回报的股友,大家要三思。</span></b><b><span style="font-size: 16.0pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
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<b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; font-size: 16.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Harryt30</span></b></div>
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<span style="font-family: "simsun";"><span style="font-size: 21.3333px;"><b>13.15p.m.</b></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "simsun";"><span style="font-size: 21.3333px;"><b>2017.06.16</b></span></span></div>
H@rryhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05027352948099378525noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1963488445754456476.post-68252576394705830692017-06-09T15:02:00.000+08:002017-06-09T15:13:42.114+08:001401.【Net Cash仙股 2】- MIKROMB(0112)盈利股价齐齐突破历史新高,会不会跑得太快呢??<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgDtWTKbbAsX0etrgoDKvDyVt5TT0DHlmUXWD7r-Tm07T4SZfcbLoa47FGNr5rBBclGN_Dlzgtq52ADCCd5rO1LiG-j1HJUUn1TSEqYX695rVeJ1LKwrpfbBQT8gIWZuR3-7HbOvgE8a1Bo/s1600/mmm.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="927" data-original-width="741" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgDtWTKbbAsX0etrgoDKvDyVt5TT0DHlmUXWD7r-Tm07T4SZfcbLoa47FGNr5rBBclGN_Dlzgtq52ADCCd5rO1LiG-j1HJUUn1TSEqYX695rVeJ1LKwrpfbBQT8gIWZuR3-7HbOvgE8a1Bo/s640/mmm.png" width="510" /></a></div>
<span style="font-size: large;">笔者曾经在2月20日分享过MIKROMB这家小型仙股,当时的PE是16.45, 股价RM0.565,笔者认为有点偏高。不过以长期的角度来看,这家公司的表现的盈利成长是值得期许的。4个月后的今天,公司的股价【刚刚】一度突破到76分,PE已经狂飙到21.86,会不会跑太快呢??</span><br />
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<span style="font-size: large;">先看看MIKROMB最近3个季度的业绩表现:</span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiiN19690MYznyVQn5IFALrfKP-MEJ6ZxLj_m6YJ0_01okEsBk6_PRVjsm7idbzHQnsrT8pcBNml1D07InUcv5fe8WBMjprOpZyTms719YnQWLhy092Sz9DpL-juClUoO_BgKjiB9vyhKvl/s1600/m2.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="517" data-original-width="1028" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiiN19690MYznyVQn5IFALrfKP-MEJ6ZxLj_m6YJ0_01okEsBk6_PRVjsm7idbzHQnsrT8pcBNml1D07InUcv5fe8WBMjprOpZyTms719YnQWLhy092Sz9DpL-juClUoO_BgKjiB9vyhKvl/s640/m2.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<span style="font-size: large;">MIKROMB在2017财政年的3个季度盈利YOY分别进步了5%,4%以及1%。每一次的盈利进步都把公司的盈利推向历史新高,但是过去3个季度的成长幅度是有限的。</span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh38tPOIOMFyb96nDH6u1mMHN95bHR704_K_Jbotan9x8d-sOZb4BJnr65VdgbYX7EqWgc_fx10KOr_AqrHAr2U8E6HbH2GQrIG8rhHhFWRu2hcCgiVywRQFLmeAz3B4P8IGQCzbxLfkCoa/s1600/m3.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="434" data-original-width="772" height="358" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh38tPOIOMFyb96nDH6u1mMHN95bHR704_K_Jbotan9x8d-sOZb4BJnr65VdgbYX7EqWgc_fx10KOr_AqrHAr2U8E6HbH2GQrIG8rhHhFWRu2hcCgiVywRQFLmeAz3B4P8IGQCzbxLfkCoa/s640/m3.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<span style="font-size: large;">从上图我们可以看到MIKROMB的盈利在过去3个季度从RM10.342 mil增长到RM10.629 mil,9个月进步了2.78%。假设股价也没有偷跑太多,当初2月的PE = 16.45估值还是可以被接收。</span><br />
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<span style="font-size: large;">但是股价从当初分享的RM0.565上涨到今天的RM0.755,上涨了接近40%,股价有跑得比盈利快的迹象。为什么笔者这么说呢?</span><br />
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<span style="font-size: large;">因为盈利决定股价,盈利涨5%不到,股价涨50%,笔者抓破脑袋都想不通。就算是5送2的Bonus Issue也不应该冲到这么快呀,各位读者的看法呢??</span><br />
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<span style="font-size: large;">虽然越南的市场成长很快,虽然新厂年底/明年就快好了,虽然公司是Net Cash,笔者还是认为股价涨得太快了。以长期1 - 2年来看,大家是不会在乎股价短期的涨幅的。</span><br />
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<span style="font-size: large;">不过以估值来看,嫌少有工业股的PE超过20,手套股除外。因此大家要自己【独立思考】咯,希望这篇文章可以让大家对公司的【估值】有一些认知。</span><br />
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<span style="color: red; font-size: x-large;"><b>以上纯属分享,买卖请自己负责。</b></span><br />
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<span style="color: red; font-size: x-large;"><b>赚了钱是你的,亏了钱不要赖笔者。</b></span><br />
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<span style="font-size: large;">Harryt30</span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;">15.00p.m.</span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;">2017.06.09</span>H@rryhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05027352948099378525noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1963488445754456476.post-85765625457544909932017-06-06T15:51:00.002+08:002017-06-06T16:02:37.798+08:001400.【广宇启航】- 关于PIE(7095) - 广宇 ,你需要懂得8件事!<span style="font-size: large;">笔者在5月26日出席了PIE(7095)的股东大会,以下是股东大会的的总结以及业绩的一些分析。</span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhbHLQDfZb0NHJf-C9XupBOnM1wfMxSixEU4i2z9bX6OC8aQw-0rvqysRFzA7YcAQajRS_3ekggQP0OCeFuCt7LoEciQZCKIfi2LfyyHoMKzcyih0rE3GR5n3BUNOrQUL7zQ1RYdWtz4tww/s1600/2.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="603" data-original-width="1010" height="382" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhbHLQDfZb0NHJf-C9XupBOnM1wfMxSixEU4i2z9bX6OC8aQw-0rvqysRFzA7YcAQajRS_3ekggQP0OCeFuCt7LoEciQZCKIfi2LfyyHoMKzcyih0rE3GR5n3BUNOrQUL7zQ1RYdWtz4tww/s640/2.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<span style="font-size: x-large;"><b>1. 净现金 - RM127.343 mil</b></span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;">PIE是一家净现金公司,他们没有任何的借贷,手上握有高达RM127.343 mil的净现金,相等于每股净现金33.16 cent。</span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgrpL5LGArMj4RME58xkEm-z588xu1h5NYc4GFyWjQdHmTi3LnRM3gchpuchylySzfgvBgNea-mQUjLKn9qZuPCtsrnjNTxWv_LLSMwoz9IJiQqlY2VTo08o3xwOt7kJcLYlvP-mRNdrpEq/s1600/dividend.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="835" data-original-width="829" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgrpL5LGArMj4RME58xkEm-z588xu1h5NYc4GFyWjQdHmTi3LnRM3gchpuchylySzfgvBgNea-mQUjLKn9qZuPCtsrnjNTxWv_LLSMwoz9IJiQqlY2VTo08o3xwOt7kJcLYlvP-mRNdrpEq/s640/dividend.png" width="634" /></a></div>
<span style="font-size: x-large;"><b>2. 派息大方</b></span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;">过去5年里,PIE平均每年把50%左右的净利用于派息,FY2016年的派发了5分的股息,相等于2016年53.25%。而且FY2017的盈利预计将会超越FY16, 因此PIE的派息有望比去年增长50%。</span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgj4Ku8Y3DxtCLGT4mgNbozHbzsSYp0cDzvh5RM3Ef2Hhp5a3neZEha15l25gV2e92MOSGCE2VlB2YIdKfL7FT05J_ztzikNlb1JX1zFxl8NnHoLdF5mV-rSkEMQY-zrxVSGK9g7gjZPK-R/s1600/expan.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="435" data-original-width="772" height="360" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgj4Ku8Y3DxtCLGT4mgNbozHbzsSYp0cDzvh5RM3Ef2Hhp5a3neZEha15l25gV2e92MOSGCE2VlB2YIdKfL7FT05J_ztzikNlb1JX1zFxl8NnHoLdF5mV-rSkEMQY-zrxVSGK9g7gjZPK-R/s640/expan.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<span style="font-size: x-large;"><b>3. 过去5年耗资RM91.166 mil建厂以及扩张</b></span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;">PIE在过去5年投入大笔资金在Purcahse of Property, Plant and Equipment。因此笔者在股东大会询问了管理层,这笔资金投入在哪里,会为公司带来什么样的收益?2017年还会继续投入大笔资金在扩张吗?</span><br />
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<span style="font-size: large;">管理层说他们引进了许多新颖的机器以及在2015年建造新的厂房,因此2017年会逐渐进入收成期,所以投入在扩张的资金会减少。因此笔者就提议管理层派发更多股息股东,因为PIE的现金真的不少。管理层说会提议给台湾的母公司,笔者期待FY2017至少有7.5分的派息。</span><br />
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<span style="font-size: large;">此外,新的机器让PIE变得更加多元化,可以提供一站式/一条龙的组装,同时也可以提升竞争能力。</span><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhRXAhvNFrThOcBMavtWtsZ_2UAh5MvKASKCLD9ru6jMdaNxYI6DE0ArqO78Gtuj2i6tIOX7xGKXmXPBCrQ_JjksP86h_dtjt3eFVdcMx_776h8K2fy60v_vmQREctLRa4eiCtuqPBk9HsE/s1600/sharp.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="135" data-original-width="374" height="230" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhRXAhvNFrThOcBMavtWtsZ_2UAh5MvKASKCLD9ru6jMdaNxYI6DE0ArqO78Gtuj2i6tIOX7xGKXmXPBCrQ_JjksP86h_dtjt3eFVdcMx_776h8K2fy60v_vmQREctLRa4eiCtuqPBk9HsE/s640/sharp.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<span style="font-size: x-large;"><b>4. 大马的PIE -广宇暂时没有拿到SHARP -夏普的合约</b></span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;">有一位股东在股东大会问到,鸿海身为PIE的母公司收购了夏普,大马的PIE有分到合约吗? Managing Director Mr Mui直接回答:【没有】,不过不排除未来会有。</span><br />
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<span style="font-size: large;">此外,管理层也表示他们比较喜欢做【中小型】的合约,因为Profit Margin会比较高。5 - 6个中小型合约就等于一家大型公司的合约,现在公司手上的合约不断增长,预计未来会拿到更多的新合约。</span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjZwTNk-MUvoMzDG9WLpSHuQf6Y6Gd8gn6yw2enOH4uJTjQg3CFiYGpLlDrhtEZSKSQHfQdhEgvzb26oXwqe0vFJB_aHMnnOekU3E1PaWYmC691o_bYGy4SQXB_VeEPLTXa75bXdGsk-PRn/s1600/foxcom.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="189" data-original-width="600" height="200" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjZwTNk-MUvoMzDG9WLpSHuQf6Y6Gd8gn6yw2enOH4uJTjQg3CFiYGpLlDrhtEZSKSQHfQdhEgvzb26oXwqe0vFJB_aHMnnOekU3E1PaWYmC691o_bYGy4SQXB_VeEPLTXa75bXdGsk-PRn/s640/foxcom.jpg" width="640" /></a></div>
<span style="font-size: x-large;"><b>5. 鸿海对广宇 - PIE是大宝藏</b></span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;">股东大会那天,管理层说台湾的鸿海创办人郭台铭曾经说过,鸿海对这些子公司就有如宝藏。只要他们能够在鸿海这么多部门里找到对自己公司有用的技术,他们都可以申请母公司鸿海的技术转移,前提当然是要付一点钱。这也是为什么管理层曾经在接受媒体访问时说到,PIE的技术在鸿海的支持下是非常先进新颖的。</span><br />
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<span style="font-size: large;">此外,PIE也透过母公司鸿海买入大部分的生产原料,因为鸿海是一家跨国大集团,所以采购的时候可以拿到比较便宜的价格。最后,公司也积极自动化生产过程,他们也邀请了鸿海的专业技术人员来协助大马广宇自动化生产线以降低成本。</span><br />
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<span style="font-size: x-large;"><b>6. 2017Q1的营业额 + 盈利- Q1历史新高</b></span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;">PIE最新的盈利YOY进步了451%,营业额进步了35%,双双都是历史新高。而且Q1一向来都是传统的淡季,这次的营业额已经是PIE上市以来单个季度第3高的营业额。最高的单个季度营业额分别是2015Q4以及2016Q4.</span><br />
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<span style="font-size: large;">管理层预计2017年下半年的营业额会有更大的进步,因为有新的Project开跑。笔者讯问了管理层对FY2017的目标,管理层说会【努力】达到FY2015的业绩(历史新高的盈利)或者超越FY15。</span><br />
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<span style="font-size: large;"><b><i>根据笔者的了解,【努力】的意思是尽力去做好,能不能做到又是一回事。</i></b></span><br />
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<b style="font-size: xx-large;">7. 盈利处于上涨的趋势</b><br />
<span style="font-size: large;">FY16的Q2以及Q3因为外汇以及外劳的因素导致盈利下滑,因此Net Profit只有RM6.132 mil以及RM4.597 mil。PIE在淡季的Q1已经获得RM11.586 mil的Net Profit,接下来的3个季度预计会很不错。</span><br />
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<span style="font-size: large;">因此想要突破RM49.029 mil的历史新高并不是难事。不过因为change in accounting policy,PIE在FY2015的restated profit是RM57.59 mil。管理层的目标是达到或超越Restated 的数字,而不是之前的RM49.029 mil。</span><br />
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<span style="font-size: x-large;"><b>8.未来的展望?</b></span><br />
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<span style="font-size: large;"><b>在股东大会跟PIE的管理层有了短暂的交流,管理层对公司的未来充满信心,对股东的发问也是有问必答。笔者趁机询问管理层,对未来5年的展望是什么。</b></span><br />
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<span style="font-size: large;">管理层的目标是5年内达到RM1,000 mil的营业额。</span></b><br />
<b><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-size: large;">笔者问最后一个问题,你觉得你的公司现在属于什么阶段呢?</span></b><br />
<b><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-size: large;">管理层:现在生产线的Utlisation接近85% - 100%,公司的订单也在持续增加。就算未来订单超过了之前,他们也有新的厂房可以支撑订单。因此管理层说现在只是处于【启航】的阶段,未来会更好。</span></b><br />
<b><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-size: large;">投行给PIE的Target Price是RM2.87, 只要盈利保持稳定的成长,这家公司将会是一家【稳重求胜】的优质成长现金股。</span></b><br />
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<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-size: large;">以上纯属分享,买卖请自负。</span></b><br />
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<span style="font-size: large;">Harryt30</span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;">15.50p.m.</span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;">2017.06.06</span>H@rryhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05027352948099378525noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1963488445754456476.post-51685754628161666412017-06-05T13:25:00.001+08:002017-06-05T18:48:30.527+08:001399.【先苦后甜】EVERGRN (5101) 过去9个季度耗资RM318.77 Mil扩张,FY2018等待采摘果实!<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEihn9UOh_-pKQ2BG5WowQDlnmOd-_vzAz-2-2LhtN0mVsJNLfWsZo5tB16x0B4K8rAWAiBBlYvQjd1CutzaFj1OEmSfbFCOwExOBbNFmdtB3mRaOfTOGEY6ODx-Lwlph9j9P6rii3kUCZvh/s1600/1.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="521" data-original-width="589" height="566" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEihn9UOh_-pKQ2BG5WowQDlnmOd-_vzAz-2-2LhtN0mVsJNLfWsZo5tB16x0B4K8rAWAiBBlYvQjd1CutzaFj1OEmSfbFCOwExOBbNFmdtB3mRaOfTOGEY6ODx-Lwlph9j9P6rii3kUCZvh/s640/1.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span style="line-height: 107%;">EVERGRN (5101) </span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">,长青纤维板成立于</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">1971</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">年,于</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">2005</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">年</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">3</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">月</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">10</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">日在大马交易所上市。这家公司是由新加坡人郭文治所创办,主要业务如下:</span><span style="line-height: 107%;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<li><span style="font-size: large;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">生产中密度纤维板</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">( MDF) </span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">以及木屑胶合板</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="line-height: 107%;"> </span><span style="line-height: 107%;">(Particleboard)</span></span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="line-height: 107%;">Ready – To – Assemble (RTA) Furniture
– </span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">组装家私</span></span></li>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span style="line-height: 107%;">EVERGRN</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">本身也是全东南亚最大的生产中密度纤维板</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="line-height: 107%;"> </span><span style="line-height: 107%;">( MDF) </span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">生产商,在马来西亚占了大有</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">60%MDF</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">的市场。大本营是在柔佛的</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">BATU PAHAT, </span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">在泰国,印尼以及新加坡都设有厂房。</span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span style="line-height: 107%;">EVERGRN</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">在</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">2016</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">年</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">1</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">月曾经</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">2</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">送</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">1</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">红股,之后股价就从顶峰的</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">RM1.70</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">一度下滑到</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">73.5</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">分,今天的价格是</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">85 cent</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">,</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">同行有</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">HEVEA以及MIECO</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">等。</span></span><span style="font-size: 14pt; font-weight: bold; line-height: 107%;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span style="line-height: 107%;">EVERGRN</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">在</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">FY2014</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">开始转亏为盈,</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">FY15</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">的盈利更是从</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">RM161,000 </span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">飞跃到</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">RM92.561 mil</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">,因此股价在</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">2015</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">年曾经上涨了接近</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">300%</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">。而</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">FY2016</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">年的盈利下滑了</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">23%</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">,但是股价却从高峰的</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">1.70</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">下滑到谷底的</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">73.5</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">分。</span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">今天的价格是</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">85分,股价从巅峰下滑了超过50</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">%</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">。</span></span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; font-size: large; line-height: 107%;">因此只要</span><span style="font-size: large; line-height: 107%;">EVERGRN</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; font-size: large; line-height: 107%;">的盈利在未来</span><span style="font-size: large; line-height: 107%;">1 – 2</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; font-size: large; line-height: 107%;">年有望回到</span><span style="font-size: large; line-height: 107%;">FY15</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; font-size: large; line-height: 107%;">的盈利巅峰,长期股价的上涨空间还有</span><span style="font-size: large; line-height: 107%;">30或以上</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; font-size: large; line-height: 107%;">。</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "simsun"; font-size: large;">EVERGREEN最新季度的营业额YOY增长了1%,但是Net Profit却急跌49%。这导致了股价连续10连黑,从5月19日的0.925下跌到昨天的0.835,下滑了9.73%。</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "simsun"; font-size: large;">EVERGRN的营业额在最近5个季度都非常稳定,保持在RM242 -263 mil之间。Net Profit下跌是因为原料供应紧张导致价格上涨,所以拉低了盈利。这个季度RM10.539 mil是9个季度的新低,市场也消化了这个利空消息,因此未来在新产线的贡献下,相信盈利可以回到轨道上。</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "simsun"; font-size: large;">其实管理层早在2月的季度报告就透入2017年会有个疲软的开始,因为Q1的时候马来西亚,泰国南部以及印尼发生水灾导致严重缺乏木材原料。因此在营业额只增长了3 mil的情况下,Cost of Sales却从去年同期的RM177.3 mil增长至这个季度的RM190.6 mil。</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "simsun"; font-size: large;">不过在最新的季度报告里,管理层提到在多个地区的水灾已经退去。虽然木材供应还没有完全恢复,不过情况已经在逐步好转。管理层预计在未来可以交出令人满意的业绩。EVERGRN股价在过去1年多下跌了接近一半,因此风险已经减少许多。预计下个季度的盈利可以QOQ进步,不过YOY能不能超越就是一个未知数。</span></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhZh3iSbWRzSag-AuxZTc63Hgv7P-D56jJlwQgTCx1Dhn4efve2vj6K3LFcqcgLjeUZb87eBqchocuW9mAe3-FxH3mfpic2ADQWsMnLB3CVbdFr-2hU1jj1MRmzPMCPnWqpNVa0ZYy_Q3Wd/s1600/41.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="452" data-original-width="752" height="384" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhZh3iSbWRzSag-AuxZTc63Hgv7P-D56jJlwQgTCx1Dhn4efve2vj6K3LFcqcgLjeUZb87eBqchocuW9mAe3-FxH3mfpic2ADQWsMnLB3CVbdFr-2hU1jj1MRmzPMCPnWqpNVa0ZYy_Q3Wd/s640/41.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">在经过连续4个季度YOY的盈利下跌,笔者认为EVERGREEN的调整期已经接近尾声。</span></span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; font-size: large; line-height: 107%;">主要是因为公司在</span><span style="font-size: large; line-height: 107%;">2015</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; font-size: large; line-height: 107%;">年以及</span><span style="font-size: large; line-height: 107%;">2016</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; font-size: large; line-height: 107%;">年分别耗资</span><span style="font-size: large; line-height: 107%;">RM89.794 mil</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; font-size: large; line-height: 107%;">以及</span><span style="font-size: large; line-height: 107%;">RM201.766 mil </span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; font-size: large; line-height: 107%;">引进新产线以及新的机器。</span></div>
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<span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; font-size: large; line-height: 107%;">站在老板的角度思考,花了这么多钱做扩张,公司不赚更多钱真的对不起小股东们。</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; font-size: large; line-height: 107%;">因此笔者认为</span><span style="font-size: large; line-height: 107%;">FY17的盈利将会缓慢复苏,FY18</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; font-size: large; line-height: 107%;">将会是</span><span style="font-size: large; line-height: 107%;">EVERGREN</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; font-size: large; line-height: 107%;">收割果实的时候,加上现在的股价处于低位,</span><span style="font-size: large; line-height: 107%;">EVERGRN</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; font-size: large; line-height: 107%;">是一家可以【守】出春天的公司。</span></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhnBl_db9pA5PvHPHAdOBeLkw9AoE1V8fFua9Ge_uPMTwb9hK52jFa5CUMR5WhH3vzJoI-Xx7AUJcmxoT3eSj11h1XWFTF5yt-JJZUvXis998gOqe2d8XLGoWAIOc6H-_z7MAFnDhKe1iWa/s1600/33.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="271" data-original-width="335" height="516" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhnBl_db9pA5PvHPHAdOBeLkw9AoE1V8fFua9Ge_uPMTwb9hK52jFa5CUMR5WhH3vzJoI-Xx7AUJcmxoT3eSj11h1XWFTF5yt-JJZUvXis998gOqe2d8XLGoWAIOc6H-_z7MAFnDhKe1iWa/s640/33.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">公司在2015年</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">Annual report</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">里说到会用</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">RM106 mil </span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">做</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">CAPEX, </span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">主要是要提升</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">Particleboard</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">的产线以及把</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">MDF</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">的产线转移到同一个产房。把</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">PERMAS JAYA</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">的工厂转移到</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">Segamat</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">的原因是</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">Permas Jaya</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">附近太多居民。</span><span style="line-height: 107%;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">而</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">Segamat</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">的工厂预计将会在</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">2017</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">年初期生产</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">Particleboard</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">,预计这将会刺激公司的盈利成长。此外,公司也在积极进军</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">RTA</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">市场,公司认为这将是未来几年的趋势。而管理层也预计未来几年,</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">RTA</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">的营业额可以沉重</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">2 – 3</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">倍的盈利。</span></span><b><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgzBKvivYv3am6_ImgnllgiqBkZFr3g2qKg8P2NaKuViZdT-DTMy12h6wPdwXn2E-nOhFJUIj89rgwlH1B0EEl7nkW129pBmMLwdfwrE5Xte6q74oVGZyNDjXVVANLD9mh5mxyKatLNDqbn/s1600/61.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="481" data-original-width="854" height="360" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgzBKvivYv3am6_ImgnllgiqBkZFr3g2qKg8P2NaKuViZdT-DTMy12h6wPdwXn2E-nOhFJUIj89rgwlH1B0EEl7nkW129pBmMLwdfwrE5Xte6q74oVGZyNDjXVVANLD9mh5mxyKatLNDqbn/s640/61.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<span style="font-size: large;">全年盈利已经连续4个季度下滑,笔者预计最坏的结果是下个季度YOY下滑,过后盈利就会开始复苏。</span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhMSybO4PWa-34VR37uFMQUFnUMlPA9XDPij4K8WfnDtQC0yJmAWB7-SxtiKOI3Y29pAf4kNtYByGvuZBUDhmeJ45Z4JO7paOpyq-gLmWiQOJq1smyGo4CrYFavIx_yUKtgZ1kh9IEx7Mat/s1600/78.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="603" data-original-width="1010" height="382" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhMSybO4PWa-34VR37uFMQUFnUMlPA9XDPij4K8WfnDtQC0yJmAWB7-SxtiKOI3Y29pAf4kNtYByGvuZBUDhmeJ45Z4JO7paOpyq-gLmWiQOJq1smyGo4CrYFavIx_yUKtgZ1kh9IEx7Mat/s640/78.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<span style="font-size: large;">EVERGRN的资产债务也有了【质】的进步,Net Debt Position从FY2012的RM287.07 mil减低到2017Q1的RM70.2 mil。明年有机会变成Net Cash公司,到时候就可以派发更多的股息。</span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgiC2Q8_I2VVtnf29s_AyZGg0z0OYctCIrNyHzW4GNXWXCM3WFT7k79ks-EUWyCjSLkGNRYV8mkXkrZC36glJoK1ZgvJXLIshxxJtx9Wk6C0UiI9dhPeBRe3ZxIfVYhetIJ9VnAhBch8lj1/s1600/2.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="110" data-original-width="305" height="230" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgiC2Q8_I2VVtnf29s_AyZGg0z0OYctCIrNyHzW4GNXWXCM3WFT7k79ks-EUWyCjSLkGNRYV8mkXkrZC36glJoK1ZgvJXLIshxxJtx9Wk6C0UiI9dhPeBRe3ZxIfVYhetIJ9VnAhBch8lj1/s640/2.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<span style="font-size: large;">EVERGRN在2015年宣布了25%派系政策,这意味着公司最少会把25%的Profit After Tax拿来派发股息。因此FY2016派发了4年新高的股息 = 2 cent。</span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjSX7xuItDsidvnnvbrEeBqbXAScMbj4BtI_fGImwavlC67Xuwg8-ligJ_kO_LVO-bym_uF6L6zbXlByK-0UzTVz38gMOxRImNl-rtlgVWIkTEMctq7q7kkrsNd25fvF4OCGERTmyUDYRHI/s1600/BUY+BACK.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="459" data-original-width="311" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjSX7xuItDsidvnnvbrEeBqbXAScMbj4BtI_fGImwavlC67Xuwg8-ligJ_kO_LVO-bym_uF6L6zbXlByK-0UzTVz38gMOxRImNl-rtlgVWIkTEMctq7q7kkrsNd25fvF4OCGERTmyUDYRHI/s640/BUY+BACK.png" width="432" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">此外,管理层家族也在4月份买进自己的股票,当时买进的价格也跟现在相差不远。这是否意味着管理层也认为自己公司的股价被低估呢??</span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "simsun"; font-size: x-large;"><b>总结:</b></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "simsun"; font-size: large;">一家公司长期要成长,它一定要耗资引进新机器以及买进新产线。这几点EVERGRN都有做到,加上资产债务表在改善,派息开始增加,这家公司的下探风险有限。而且管理层自己也买进自己的股票,这表明管理层对自己的公司有信心。</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "simsun"; font-size: large;">此外,季度报告里也提到Selling Price走高,这对Evergrn也是利好消息。</span><span style="font-family: "simsun"; font-size: large;">或许长期【守】着这家公司1-2年会有不错的收获。</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "simsun"; font-size: x-large;">以上纯属分享,买卖请自负。</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">Harryt30</span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">13.25p.m.</span></span></div>
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H@rryhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05027352948099378525noreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1963488445754456476.post-43727768833240977382017-05-03T11:45:00.002+08:002017-05-03T11:45:46.185+08:001398.【浴火凤凰】- APM(5015)海外市场全面开花,【印尼+越南+澳洲】市场初显成果!<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: large;"><span style="line-height: 107%;">APM (5015) </span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">最大的股东是</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">TAN CHONG, </span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">这家公司主要的业务跟汽车息息相关。大家在许多汽车维修以及零件店都可以看到<span style="background: red; color: white;">【</span></span><span style="background: red; color: white; line-height: 107%;">APM</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="background: red; color: white; font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">】</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">的</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">LOGO</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">,APM在大马汽车零件处于龙头老大的位置。</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">APM</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">汽车控股主要的业务如下:</span><span style="line-height: 107%;"><o:p></o:p></span></span><br />
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<li><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: SimSun; line-height: 107%;"><span style="font-size: large;"><b>内部装饰以及塑料业务</b></span></span></li>
<li><span style="line-height: 107%;"><span style="font-size: large;"><b>Electrical & Heat Exchange</b></span></span></li>
<li><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: SimSun; line-height: 107%;"><span style="font-size: large;"><b>印尼以及海外汽车原装设备制造</b></span></span></li>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: SimSun; line-height: 107%;">在</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">2013</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: SimSun; line-height: 107%;">年的巅峰期,</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">APM</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: SimSun; line-height: 107%;">汽车控股</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">98%</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: SimSun; line-height: 107%;">的业务贡献都是来自马来西亚市场。但是</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">2014</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: SimSun; line-height: 107%;">年马币走低导致主要原料价格上扬,</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">APM</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: SimSun; line-height: 107%;">的</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">Net Profit Margin</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: SimSun; line-height: 107%;">已经连续下滑</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">3</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: SimSun; line-height: 107%;">年,从</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">FY2013</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: SimSun; line-height: 107%;">的</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">9.9%</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: SimSun; line-height: 107%;">下滑到</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">FY2016</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: SimSun; line-height: 107%;">的</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">3.9%</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: SimSun; line-height: 107%;">。此外,大马汽车市场持续低迷也导致营业成长放缓。不过最近几年</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">APM</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: SimSun; line-height: 107%;">积极开拓海外市场,投行预计</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">2020</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: SimSun; line-height: 107%;">年</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">APM</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: SimSun; line-height: 107%;">的营业额可以达到</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">20</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: SimSun; line-height: 107%;">亿令吉。</span><span style="line-height: 107%;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjFg_SFlcTDCWzgaNLurODoZrB2G_Mac6VPao0EEmFexr3TPFKE3CYX0YTcY54G35CjM4DXKUzgG1miN00vWAbgtWmyRF8sURD6ioGfBpCgdyTi-44KO3_F9X47BJxErjCe6vL2k-tkie7d/s1600/421.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-size: large;"><img border="0" height="382" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjFg_SFlcTDCWzgaNLurODoZrB2G_Mac6VPao0EEmFexr3TPFKE3CYX0YTcY54G35CjM4DXKUzgG1miN00vWAbgtWmyRF8sURD6ioGfBpCgdyTi-44KO3_F9X47BJxErjCe6vL2k-tkie7d/s640/421.png" width="640" /></span></a></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span style="line-height: 107%;">APM</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: SimSun; line-height: 107%;">的净利在</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">2014Q1 – 2016Q2</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: SimSun; line-height: 107%;">面临了</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">10</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: SimSun; line-height: 107%;">连跌,盈利</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">YOY</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: SimSun; line-height: 107%;">连续下跌了</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">10</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: SimSun; line-height: 107%;">个季度。不过最新的两个季度终于开始看到了复苏,营业额以及盈利都保持着不错的成长。</span><span style="line-height: 107%;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjraaVppTfSTw-Ien5vbH2vtlO9EaEEOpBByFUFoTVza778lyZAIz5RNFQCKY7fbynGyGBTVDnThzXX5vkC1n-_n6J1ikLQpf8JQEPwDhzeCQ1KoX26IoLe3c000pO8pelcrK8trLMLFvfH/s1600/5555555.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-size: large;"><img border="0" height="366" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjraaVppTfSTw-Ien5vbH2vtlO9EaEEOpBByFUFoTVza778lyZAIz5RNFQCKY7fbynGyGBTVDnThzXX5vkC1n-_n6J1ikLQpf8JQEPwDhzeCQ1KoX26IoLe3c000pO8pelcrK8trLMLFvfH/s640/5555555.png" width="640" /></span></a></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: SimSun; line-height: 107%;">最近</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">3</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: SimSun; line-height: 107%;">年</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">APM</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: SimSun; line-height: 107%;">投入大笔的资金进军印尼,越南以及澳洲等国家,因此在</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">15Q3</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: SimSun; line-height: 107%;">开始,公司的营业额至今已经连续上涨了</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">5</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: SimSun; line-height: 107%;">个季度。最新季度</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">RM340.713 mil</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: SimSun; line-height: 107%;">的营业额更是历史新高,而且最新两个季度的</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">Net Profit Margin</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: SimSun; line-height: 107%;">都保持在</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">4.5%</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: SimSun; line-height: 107%;">以上。</span><span style="line-height: 107%;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhUX9AzrLP6V06A8kERi1n1BrUp9JSVNZLrEgn5Jl_J9T6BDbLlwB11Z7LzrFRIsuI5qNFhg6S3a0rtlMgxHILRmLfMMpou3A7tPCowFeJ3tlDh9c47UisuGuX-NbdPyvHePtKZ2-VS8mzj/s1600/212.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-size: large;"><img border="0" height="408" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhUX9AzrLP6V06A8kERi1n1BrUp9JSVNZLrEgn5Jl_J9T6BDbLlwB11Z7LzrFRIsuI5qNFhg6S3a0rtlMgxHILRmLfMMpou3A7tPCowFeJ3tlDh9c47UisuGuX-NbdPyvHePtKZ2-VS8mzj/s640/212.png" width="640" /></span></a></div>
<span style="font-size: large;"><span style="line-height: 107%;">APM</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: SimSun; line-height: 107%;">一路以来都是以净现金以及派息大方闻名,公司的</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">Net Cash Position = RM276.258 mil</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: SimSun; line-height: 107%;">。虽然盈利不断下滑,但是公司的资产债务还是处于非常健康的状态。</span></span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiycHxMsAk8OI1HKTSmruFpmT_XnsfRwC6a9IAQSe-dWitc8GMs0fkJDzgsKjhfQ4ERnYJ47VlMtj0-sM6m1UqV62iFMh92lnThUutAIvtpwP1vuwTyzrVP9lxg32YYBR551O2Dttvwh7Xx/s1600/55552.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-size: large;"><img border="0" height="424" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiycHxMsAk8OI1HKTSmruFpmT_XnsfRwC6a9IAQSe-dWitc8GMs0fkJDzgsKjhfQ4ERnYJ47VlMtj0-sM6m1UqV62iFMh92lnThUutAIvtpwP1vuwTyzrVP9lxg32YYBR551O2Dttvwh7Xx/s640/55552.png" width="640" /></span></a></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span style="line-height: 107%;">APM</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: SimSun; line-height: 107%;">过往</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">5</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: SimSun; line-height: 107%;">年底平均派息率高达</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">59.7%</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: SimSun; line-height: 107%;">,是一家赚多派多的公司。2017年的</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">FINAL DIVIDEND = 10</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: SimSun; line-height: 107%;">仙将会在</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: SimSun; line-height: 107%;">月6除权,全年派息</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">15</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: SimSun; line-height: 107%;">仙。</span><span style="line-height: 107%;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEin6IT27Za_iFLEZ2DlscT8WW1VDB0gHo34rmSaOficUyixrmtKORoEN2KNoT2ef838i-o592kTNMDLXXBsymyg7xdkEwDieLTo_DrASAEx-YsBpZ86d8nWqsUT33PuQoGVBxhZ2RjQAZep/s1600/65.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-size: large;"><img border="0" height="384" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEin6IT27Za_iFLEZ2DlscT8WW1VDB0gHo34rmSaOficUyixrmtKORoEN2KNoT2ef838i-o592kTNMDLXXBsymyg7xdkEwDieLTo_DrASAEx-YsBpZ86d8nWqsUT33PuQoGVBxhZ2RjQAZep/s640/65.png" width="640" /></span></a></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: SimSun; line-height: 107%;">从</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">2013</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: SimSun; line-height: 107%;">年开始,公司就开始增加它们的海外扩张。海外收购以及扩张从</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">FY12</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: SimSun; line-height: 107%;">的</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">RM29.934 mil</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: SimSun; line-height: 107%;">每年逐步上涨到</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">FY16</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: SimSun; line-height: 107%;">的</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">RM95.954 mil</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: SimSun; line-height: 107%;">。</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">APM</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: SimSun; line-height: 107%;">过去</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">4</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: SimSun; line-height: 107%;">年的总净利</span><span style="line-height: 107%;"> = RM332.5 mil</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: SimSun; line-height: 107%;">,这段时间里总共投入了</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">RM331.8 mil</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: SimSun; line-height: 107%;">在扩张。这相等于</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">99.8%</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: SimSun; line-height: 107%;">赚到钱都是用来扩张以及进军海外市场,也难怪外界预测公司在</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">2020</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: SimSun; line-height: 107%;">年的营业额可以达到</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">20</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: SimSun; line-height: 107%;">亿令吉。</span><span style="line-height: 107%;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjBxnyCEiOTvGU5sHjWWSZRB5WCAp5xGphODP-SNRb4KhGc2CEaiGoBL6wEUyhfJyOkGwGdYvBjleTODcVBSY0wpwdoTHmZKJ7CEdza2kf2Nj4BPELp-CqpTHl1AF9_LySnGttcj8GYihEZ/s1600/444444444.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-size: large;"><img border="0" height="416" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjBxnyCEiOTvGU5sHjWWSZRB5WCAp5xGphODP-SNRb4KhGc2CEaiGoBL6wEUyhfJyOkGwGdYvBjleTODcVBSY0wpwdoTHmZKJ7CEdza2kf2Nj4BPELp-CqpTHl1AF9_LySnGttcj8GYihEZ/s640/444444444.png" width="640" /></span></a></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span style="line-height: 107%;">APM (5015) </span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: SimSun; line-height: 107%;">的</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">Annual Report</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: SimSun; line-height: 107%;">在星期五出炉,笔者深入阅读之后,对</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">APM</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: SimSun; line-height: 107%;">在</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">2017</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: SimSun; line-height: 107%;">年的扩张非常看好。因此在这里把其中一些重点列出,让大家对</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">APM</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: SimSun; line-height: 107%;">的扩张计划以及前景有更深的了解。从上图我们可以看到</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">APM</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: SimSun; line-height: 107%;">的业务以及渗透出国外,主要国家有美国,越南,澳洲,泰国,缅甸,</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">Netherlands</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: SimSun; line-height: 107%;">等国家。</span><span style="line-height: 107%;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: SimSun; line-height: 107%;">在盈利</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">YOY</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: SimSun; line-height: 107%;">连续下滑</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">10</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: SimSun; line-height: 107%;">个季度之后,</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">APM</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: SimSun; line-height: 107%;">最近两个季度的盈利开始复苏,分别是</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">RM17.457 Mil</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: SimSun; line-height: 107%;">以及</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">RM15.406 mil</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: SimSun; line-height: 107%;">,半年的盈利是</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">RM32.86 mil</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: SimSun; line-height: 107%;">。假设未来两个季度也可以保持这种成绩,公司在8月的全年盈利</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: SimSun; line-height: 107%;">有望</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: SimSun; line-height: 107%;">成长可以达到30</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">%</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: SimSun; line-height: 107%;">或以上。</span><span style="line-height: 107%;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjLxHmguOe4JK0U-CoJ2tW5TfxowvZKvjXa9qni8NqWUWzd6Mqg7yHVZp36yF2amVzJ8sfFDwuyYnxf9F8ClMIvp6NGssWFUowGyKwUfaVUsjQi2IpPE1TMKvIrLuLo0HU9Z2aqvDTAAVJZ/s1600/542.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-size: large;"><img border="0" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjLxHmguOe4JK0U-CoJ2tW5TfxowvZKvjXa9qni8NqWUWzd6Mqg7yHVZp36yF2amVzJ8sfFDwuyYnxf9F8ClMIvp6NGssWFUowGyKwUfaVUsjQi2IpPE1TMKvIrLuLo0HU9Z2aqvDTAAVJZ/s640/542.png" width="550" /></span></a></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: SimSun; line-height: 107%;">上图可以让当大家更加了解</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">APM</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: SimSun; line-height: 107%;">的业务以及生意模式。</span><span style="line-height: 107%;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg2vAN6SsZ-GWYQX-FxNWfMgS0Yo2iJOBkAVH2ESi0iyKbtMcImYKixGUbniGL7u7u6n2r-y1IRlmMbALp9AhHxRCohoOYvPpoEYAzR6qG4xYGEqgARH5C-Mdx2sKwArO5ACnhk83ReKCPS/s1600/123.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-size: large;"><img border="0" height="464" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg2vAN6SsZ-GWYQX-FxNWfMgS0Yo2iJOBkAVH2ESi0iyKbtMcImYKixGUbniGL7u7u6n2r-y1IRlmMbALp9AhHxRCohoOYvPpoEYAzR6qG4xYGEqgARH5C-Mdx2sKwArO5ACnhk83ReKCPS/s640/123.png" width="640" /></span></a></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiKWx607k85A3Lmg4IUGAABoVoavGk-HynrVdTFvmZzdKIUb5yUzES6ngb5lndLuA5jU2NzDZ8pivgg3gZ9TLgwIlqTZD8zN3EuSv_OL6w934Y-Rrn6rd-NWCEarPmEFwLbHs5-eazZjg2c/s1600/124.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-size: large;"><img border="0" height="120" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiKWx607k85A3Lmg4IUGAABoVoavGk-HynrVdTFvmZzdKIUb5yUzES6ngb5lndLuA5jU2NzDZ8pivgg3gZ9TLgwIlqTZD8zN3EuSv_OL6w934Y-Rrn6rd-NWCEarPmEFwLbHs5-eazZjg2c/s640/124.png" width="640" /></span></a></div>
<span style="font-size: large;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: SimSun; line-height: 107%;">上图是</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">APM</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: SimSun; line-height: 107%;">在</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">2016</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: SimSun; line-height: 107%;">年的重要事件,我们可以看到</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">APM透过</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: SimSun; line-height: 107%;">不断收购其他相关行业以壮大自己。当中有来自澳洲,泰国,越南等地区,而且还和</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">MAZDA</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: SimSun; line-height: 107%;">成立了</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">Joint Venture</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: SimSun; line-height: 107%;">以研发</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">Automobile seating system</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: SimSun; line-height: 107%;">。</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">12</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: SimSun; line-height: 107%;">月的时候更是进军</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">IoT</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: SimSun; line-height: 107%;">物联网市场,以</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">RM650,000</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: SimSun; line-height: 107%;">买进</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">Omnimatics Sdn.Bhd</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: SimSun; line-height: 107%;">大</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">52%</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: SimSun; line-height: 107%;">的股份。各种迹象证明</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">APM</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: SimSun; line-height: 107%;">的管理层要透过进军海外市场以扩张版图。</span></span><br />
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: SimSun; line-height: 107%;">笔者收集了</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">APM</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: SimSun; line-height: 107%;">过去</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">5</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: SimSun; line-height: 107%;">年大马以及海外市场的数据,</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">2016</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: SimSun; line-height: 107%;">年的营业额全面上涨,无论是马来西亚,越南,印尼,澳洲,欧洲,美国以及其他国家等都交出了进步的营业额。而且大马的营业额在连续下滑</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">2</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: SimSun; line-height: 107%;">年之后,</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">FY16</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: SimSun; line-height: 107%;">首次看到了营业额增长,按年上涨了</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">RM22.2 mil</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: SimSun; line-height: 107%;">。</span></span><br />
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: SimSun; line-height: 107%;">外国市场在过去</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">5</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: SimSun; line-height: 107%;">年急速成长,成长最快的</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">3</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: SimSun; line-height: 107%;">个国家分别是越南,印尼以及澳洲。</span><span style="line-height: 107%;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: SimSun; line-height: 107%;">公司外国的营业额从</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">FY13</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: SimSun; line-height: 107%;">的</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">1.95%</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: SimSun; line-height: 107%;">成长到</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">FY16</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: SimSun; line-height: 107%;">的</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">20.12%</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: SimSun; line-height: 107%;">,成长幅度非常惊人。而且公司在</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">2016</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: SimSun; line-height: 107%;">急速扩张外国市场,笔者预计</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">FY2017</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: SimSun; line-height: 107%;">外国的营业额成长可以成长到</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">25%</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: SimSun; line-height: 107%;">或以上的份额。</span></span><br />
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: SimSun; line-height: 107%;">此外,印尼的资产从</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">RM134 mil</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: SimSun; line-height: 107%;">增长到</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">RM187,</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: SimSun; line-height: 107%;">增加了</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">RM53 mil,</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: SimSun; line-height: 107%;">。Other Countries的资产也增加了</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">RM27 mil</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: SimSun; line-height: 107%;">,这都是因为公司不断扩张所致。因此笔者深信</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">APM</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: SimSun; line-height: 107%;">在过去</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">5</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: SimSun; line-height: 107%;">年投下巨资进军海外市场</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">(</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: SimSun; line-height: 107%;">尤其是印尼</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">)</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: SimSun; line-height: 107%;">,</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">FY2017</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: SimSun; line-height: 107%;">将会是收取成果的丰收年。</span></span><br />
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: SimSun; line-height: 107%;">印尼是汽车成长最快的市场,印尼的新厂在</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">2016</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: SimSun; line-height: 107%;">年</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">6</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: SimSun; line-height: 107%;">月完工,因此前期投入导致印尼的业务在</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">2016</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: SimSun; line-height: 107%;">年是蒙受亏损的。不过管理层预计</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">2017</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: SimSun; line-height: 107%;">年的营业额将会继续成长,因为新厂将可以贡献全年的营业额以及盈利。</span></span><br />
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: SimSun; line-height: 107%;">除了印尼意外,</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">APM</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: SimSun; line-height: 107%;">也在泰国设立了新的生产线,因此预计</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">2017</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: SimSun; line-height: 107%;">年泰国的营业额贡献也会开始变得明显。</span></span><br />
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: SimSun; line-height: 107%;">透过不断的扩张,公司无论是在产量以及国际市场都有了明显的进步。而且透过和其他跨国公司合作,管理层相信未来的前景将会非常亮眼。</span><span style="line-height: 107%;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: SimSun; line-height: 107%;">公司在</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">FY12 – 14</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: SimSun; line-height: 107%;">的</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">ROE</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: SimSun; line-height: 107%;">平均都超过</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">10%</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: SimSun; line-height: 107%;">,不过</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">FY16</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: SimSun; line-height: 107%;">已经下滑到</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">4</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: SimSun; line-height: 107%;">。主要原因是因为每股净资产</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="line-height: 107%;"> </span><span style="line-height: 107%;">– NTA</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: SimSun; line-height: 107%;">从</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">RM4.54</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: SimSun; line-height: 107%;">增长到了</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">RM6.14</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: SimSun; line-height: 107%;">以及盈利下滑。</span><span style="line-height: 107%;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><i><b><span style="line-height: 107%;">ROE</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: SimSun; line-height: 107%;">的</span></b></i><span style="line-height: 107%;"><i><b>FORMULA = EPS/NTA</b></i><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: SimSun; line-height: 107%;">APM预计公司急速扩张下,</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">EPS</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: SimSun; line-height: 107%;">将会开始复苏。而且资产增长了那么多,是时候让这些资产贡献盈利了。笔者预计未来</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">12 – 18</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: SimSun; line-height: 107%;">个月的</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">ROE</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: SimSun; line-height: 107%;">应该要回到</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">8%</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: SimSun; line-height: 107%;">的健康水平,这也意味着</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">EPS </span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: SimSun; line-height: 107%;">在未来有望成长50%或以上</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: SimSun; line-height: 107%;">。这是否可以实现,就让时间证明吧。</span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span style="line-height: 107%;">Proton</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: SimSun; line-height: 107%;">以及</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">Perodua</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: SimSun; line-height: 107%;">国产汽车贡献了</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">APM</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: SimSun; line-height: 107%;">大约</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">50 – 60%</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: SimSun; line-height: 107%;">的营业额,大马汽车领域放缓导致</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">APM</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: SimSun; line-height: 107%;">的业务收到影响。不过今年</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">3</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: SimSun; line-height: 107%;">月的汽车总销量</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">YOY</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: SimSun; line-height: 107%;">增加了</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">10.1%</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: SimSun; line-height: 107%;">,表现令人鼓舞,预计汽车领域将逐步复苏。</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">3</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: SimSun; line-height: 107%;">月的总销量主要是由</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">Honda</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: SimSun; line-height: 107%;">,</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">Perodua</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: SimSun; line-height: 107%;">以及</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">Toyota</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: SimSun; line-height: 107%;">带动。</span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: SimSun; line-height: 107%;">此外。</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">Perodua</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: SimSun; line-height: 107%;">在</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">2017Q1</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: SimSun; line-height: 107%;">的汽车销售量是</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">50,300</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: SimSun; line-height: 107%;">辆,</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">YOY</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: SimSun; line-height: 107%;">增长了</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">6.5%</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: SimSun; line-height: 107%;">。在国产车产量复苏的情况下,</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">APM</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: SimSun; line-height: 107%;">的业务也将会受到带动,</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">5</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: SimSun; line-height: 107%;">月公布的业绩要保持</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">YOY</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: SimSun; line-height: 107%;">成长并非难事。</span><span style="line-height: 107%;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span style="line-height: 107%;">APM</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: SimSun; line-height: 107%;">的</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">Net Profit</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: SimSun; line-height: 107%;">在</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">16Q2</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: SimSun; line-height: 107%;">就步入低谷的</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">RM40.083 mil</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: SimSun; line-height: 107%;">,不过最近</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">2</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: SimSun; line-height: 107%;">个季度出现了转折,盈利在半年内成长了</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">20%</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: SimSun; line-height: 107%;">,从</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">RM40 mil</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: SimSun; line-height: 107%;">进步到</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">RM48.5%</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: SimSun; line-height: 107%;">。因此笔者预计</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">APM</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: SimSun; line-height: 107%;">未来</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">2</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: SimSun; line-height: 107%;">年将会迎来复苏,前景备受看好。</span><span style="line-height: 107%;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: SimSun; line-height: 107%;">盈利决定股价,大家可以看到</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">APM</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: SimSun; line-height: 107%;">的股价走势跟盈利的表现完全吻合。</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">APM</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: SimSun; line-height: 107%;">的股价从巅峰的</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">RM6.40</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: SimSun; line-height: 107%;">下滑到底部</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">RM3.31, </span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: SimSun; line-height: 107%;">不过在最近的半年股价上涨了20</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">%</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: SimSun; line-height: 107%;">,迎合了盈利的走势。</span><span style="line-height: 107%;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: SimSun; line-height: 107%;">而且上图2016年</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">12</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: SimSun; line-height: 107%;">月份,2017年</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">2</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: SimSun; line-height: 107%;">月份以及</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">4</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: SimSun; line-height: 107%;">月份的</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">3</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: SimSun; line-height: 107%;">个蓝色圈子,成交量也一次比一次高。股价在昨天突破52周</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: SimSun; line-height: 107%;">新高RM3.96,成交量在4月20日更是突破了两年新高的成交量</span><span style="line-height: 107%;"> =141.37</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: SimSun; line-height: 107%;">万股成交量。</span><span style="line-height: 107%;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: SimSun; line-height: 107%;">笔者预计</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">FY2017</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: SimSun; line-height: 107%;">的全年营业额将会突破历史新高,盈利也有望回到</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">FY2015</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: SimSun; line-height: 107%;">的</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">RM60 mil</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: SimSun; line-height: 107%;">或着更高。</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">FY15</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: SimSun; line-height: 107%;">公司在赚取</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">RM60 mil</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: SimSun; line-height: 107%;">的情况下派发了</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">19.5</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: SimSun; line-height: 107%;">仙的股息,只要</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">FY17</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: SimSun; line-height: 107%;">的盈利有</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">RM60 mil</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: SimSun; line-height: 107%;">以上,</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">APM</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: SimSun; line-height: 107%;">是有机会派发</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">20</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: SimSun; line-height: 107%;">仙的股息的。因此只要持有</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">APM</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: SimSun; line-height: 107%;">到明天</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">6</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: SimSun; line-height: 107%;">月底,</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">14</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: SimSun; line-height: 107%;">个月的时间是有机会获得</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">30</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: SimSun; line-height: 107%;">仙的股息,周息率相等于</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">6.5%</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: SimSun; line-height: 107%;">。</span><span style="line-height: 107%;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: SimSun; line-height: 107%;">除了丰厚的股息,大马汽车领域复苏以及过去今年积极开拓海外市场将会是刺激</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">APM</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: SimSun; line-height: 107%;">业绩走高的两个主要因素。不过这家公司需要时间以及耐心等待它成长,因此有兴趣的投资者必须陪伴这家公司一同成长1 -2年</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: SimSun; line-height: 107%;">。</span><span style="line-height: 107%;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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H@rryhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05027352948099378525noreply@blogger.com6tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1963488445754456476.post-43479318185678069662017-04-19T16:08:00.002+08:002017-04-19T16:09:36.689+08:001397.【马太平洋】- MPI(3867) 派发19分股息,Net Cash Position = RM419.74 Mil!<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi41SVTDhBqWNHidnTsoJ6y9Anjz3SDzv-T4_KwKIgkbL0H1rFtwQF-VYztJ-IZ0OMaJ9dMFeeNFNwul1OD2ouGFxqSRqlTNZMiVUTlr5qIlzDq6Fj5QsBL0xi5oA3OKvX07_ep4KupsuLX/s1600/REVENUE.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="316" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi41SVTDhBqWNHidnTsoJ6y9Anjz3SDzv-T4_KwKIgkbL0H1rFtwQF-VYztJ-IZ0OMaJ9dMFeeNFNwul1OD2ouGFxqSRqlTNZMiVUTlr5qIlzDq6Fj5QsBL0xi5oA3OKvX07_ep4KupsuLX/s640/REVENUE.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<span style="font-size: large;">MPI(3867)的股价昨天上涨94分,股价从2016年底RM7.41上涨到今天的RM11.84, 涨幅高达59.78%。这主要是因为上个季度的业绩盈利突破近年的新高以及之前的PE低于10,所以1月尾业绩出炉后股价狂涨接近50%。</span><br />
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<span style="font-size: large;">昨天公布最新季度的营业额以及盈利分别上涨了12%以及11%,RM43.213 mil的净利是近年第2高。股价在今天暂时下跌20分,相等于1.69%。盈利上涨股价却下滑,这可能是因为股价之前上涨太凶以及MPI的盈利成长不符合市场的需求。</span><br />
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<span style="font-size: large;">这个季度的Net Profit Margin从之前的13.7%下滑到10.91%,原因请参考下图。</span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiQyMVIYOoZdKpqU4WkkZ-CgO19I7gPk2WHqu3NyLsA97e4v1u3CFFzSRzrF9-eFlqxO2Hiyiy5xECdQDX6LMiq3s9ODSCRomUASuj9VnfCFz0wPy5gZnsu_O0fXJS5LZsMkHkbyCjoGlMq/s1600/3.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="332" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiQyMVIYOoZdKpqU4WkkZ-CgO19I7gPk2WHqu3NyLsA97e4v1u3CFFzSRzrF9-eFlqxO2Hiyiy5xECdQDX6LMiq3s9ODSCRomUASuj9VnfCFz0wPy5gZnsu_O0fXJS5LZsMkHkbyCjoGlMq/s640/3.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<span style="font-size: large;">MPI在这个季度有RM10.037 mil的外汇亏损以及RM1.538的Hedging Gain,相加起来亏损了RM8.5 mil。而上个季度的外汇+Hedging却有RM3.27 mil的盈利,两个季度相差了RM11.77 mil,这也是导致盈利QOQ下滑的主因。不过总体而言,公司还是受惠于美金汇率走高,因此最新的两个季度营业额平均接近RM400 mil。</span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg39vvflJtJF9AtowD3-aGtJIK6XHKZmKMtQ77yovuzeX9fj1vio-PoQiOrUFDl7WiNJALK7DkMJ6VQLleZd96LDNkxAoR9sJ0j35fms-7msjqQFd_tHxnzTmZr0hsvkReh_Kaa3b9SsIaB/s1600/CASH1.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="408" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg39vvflJtJF9AtowD3-aGtJIK6XHKZmKMtQ77yovuzeX9fj1vio-PoQiOrUFDl7WiNJALK7DkMJ6VQLleZd96LDNkxAoR9sJ0j35fms-7msjqQFd_tHxnzTmZr0hsvkReh_Kaa3b9SsIaB/s640/CASH1.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<span style="font-size: large;">MPI现在手持的现金高达人吗RM484 mil,扣除Borrowing的话,Net Cash Position高达RM419.739 mil。</span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjSmlEHlO464DWF_syV8mOXFWgIEsuBTmGUWUcoJ459jcELXAThlnQVSs3qoFkC6XDdG9gDmr5QiLxkHSfX4zaJ444uyAHU-T1z2_8tJVMn0EZlqa8rYJohvJAI8Vc4-_vEjWcjcJVRnAU5/s1600/CASH.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="414" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjSmlEHlO464DWF_syV8mOXFWgIEsuBTmGUWUcoJ459jcELXAThlnQVSs3qoFkC6XDdG9gDmr5QiLxkHSfX4zaJ444uyAHU-T1z2_8tJVMn0EZlqa8rYJohvJAI8Vc4-_vEjWcjcJVRnAU5/s640/CASH.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<span style="font-size: large;">由于公司的Net Cash以及盈利都是近年的新高,所以这次的派息从去年同期的15仙进步到19仙。全年派息从23分进步到27分,其实笔者觉得MPI应该派发30分以上的股息回馈股东,他们的现金真的太多了。</span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhypV8CkUaOduXlwYNuggsNkvMChJvZdi_EUtIgC9tLSSkoEyBN3CxWdtc2tvEKQwhdA_tPrRP7YZGRtPk9fGeRp6genpRYjeupmS4_a0-zO15bSsIGE89hWX5lt9KFozjJDYnG0s-SKT2d/s1600/PPE.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="368" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhypV8CkUaOduXlwYNuggsNkvMChJvZdi_EUtIgC9tLSSkoEyBN3CxWdtc2tvEKQwhdA_tPrRP7YZGRtPk9fGeRp6genpRYjeupmS4_a0-zO15bSsIGE89hWX5lt9KFozjJDYnG0s-SKT2d/s640/PPE.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<span style="font-size: large;">一如以往,MPI在Purchase of PPE还是投入许多的资金,单单这个季度MPI就投入RM54.65 mil,3个季度投入了RM94.672 mil。Automotive - 汽车领域将会是未来的趋势,因此MPI也努力提高这个部门的贡献,预计未来5年营业额的贡献比例会增加到50%。</span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-size: large;">总结:</span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhW6dVUrTpcEQtz4-dPXX0zWIdsBYLNaxrD4Bo9-cVTXM2n2tLb-E45dJtargh1by5jhIOqN2Ztlq30qLluKQsBcZ_kv-ZXl8g_lbJwUZmgr0hLx6flavxHP23Y6LukesCECFdM0aJz_v9F/s1600/ANNUAL.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="384" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhW6dVUrTpcEQtz4-dPXX0zWIdsBYLNaxrD4Bo9-cVTXM2n2tLb-E45dJtargh1by5jhIOqN2Ztlq30qLluKQsBcZ_kv-ZXl8g_lbJwUZmgr0hLx6flavxHP23Y6LukesCECFdM0aJz_v9F/s640/ANNUAL.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<span style="font-size: large;">MPI现在的全年盈利是RM176.591 mil,暂时是最近10年的巅峰。而且美国以及欧洲的销售相比去年同期上升了8%以及14%,而亚洲市场下滑8%。最新的全球半导体相关报导指出,2017年电子半导体的营业额将会成长12%,这对大马的科技股无疑是好消息。</span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-size: large;">MPI在2017年4个月内上涨了55%以上,因此公司现在需要时间赚更多钱让股价成长。不过管理层非常乐观,表示未来几个季度都会交出满意的业绩,因此预计MPI的营业额以及盈利可以保持着稳定的成长。</span><br />
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<span style="font-size: large;">Harryt30</span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;">16.08p.m.</span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;">2017.04.19</span>H@rryhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05027352948099378525noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1963488445754456476.post-76238377311790851782017-04-08T16:19:00.002+08:002017-04-08T16:19:29.796+08:001396.【歌神魅力】- GESHEN (7197) 单季营业额突破新 高,侵略性扩张效果显现!!<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhi3gtqGUtRkKtOHddMxDM-gefLWisQerH8YnkVhQuDZ5NktU0AbnspkPCOCx1xdrxajiwJ7xA15ecGUh82GF25uO0uM-mqHVHTQf7nKcl562FSXu9PtMVp_987e1A1qrB7TSKcQ2mJjByl/s1600/1.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhi3gtqGUtRkKtOHddMxDM-gefLWisQerH8YnkVhQuDZ5NktU0AbnspkPCOCx1xdrxajiwJ7xA15ecGUh82GF25uO0uM-mqHVHTQf7nKcl562FSXu9PtMVp_987e1A1qrB7TSKcQ2mJjByl/s640/1.png" width="432" /></a></div>
<span style="font-size: large;">GESHEN (7197) 巨盛是一家来自南马柔佛小型公司,主要的业务是塑料模</span><span style="font-size: large;">型 (Plastic Moulding), 专注在电器塑料模型, 在同行里也是佼佼者。2015年股</span><span style="font-size: large;">价涨幅更是荣登主板十大上涨榜亚军,涨幅高达 397.3%。不过 2016 年由</span><span style="font-size: large;">于马币走强,公司的业绩开始下滑导致股价一度从巅峰的 RM2.87 下滑到</span><span style="font-size: large;">底部 RM1.35, 下滑幅度超过了 50%.</span><br />
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<span style="font-size: large;">不过最新季度的营业营业额在新厂的</span><span style="font-size: large;">贡献下突破了历史新高,GESHEN 的股价也从底部的反弹到现在的</span><span style="font-size: large;">RM2.15, 前景看俏。</span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: large;">过去几年 GESHEN 频频收购同行以拓展自己的业务:</span><br />
<br />
<ul>
<li><span style="font-size: large;">2015 年 4 年以 RM3,376 万收购了 【POLYPLAS】 75%的股份,16 年</span><span style="font-size: large;">6 月宣布以 RM18.33 mil 收购剩余的 25%股权,也意味着</span><span style="font-size: large;">【POLYPLAS】将会成为 GESHEN 完全拥有的子公司。</span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: large;">16 年 7 月,以 RM1,300 万收购 Demand Option 私人有限公司的</span><span style="font-size: large;">70%股权,双方签署股票买卖合约之后,GESHEN 可以选择在 3 年</span><span style="font-size: large;">后收购其余的 30%股权。此次收购可以帮助 GESHEN 进军金属冲压</span><span style="font-size: large;">领域,并多样化客户群。</span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: large;">16 年 11 月,以 RM950 万向 TNLOGIS (8397) 收购一件仓库,以拓展</span><span style="font-size: large;">制造产房.</span></li>
</ul>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgTeqegNfIAedry37cmTJG4M29MfSeaK3fMg-N0eNV24jDFS30qFVMSRy7oCU59FMLA5dMwAzWBr6TU2J4XRMkW22zJExRarozwZrPiJ92s9eQp41MSk4xMU5SRjRnxcIiQkFU-GvAgO1Jf/s1600/5.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgTeqegNfIAedry37cmTJG4M29MfSeaK3fMg-N0eNV24jDFS30qFVMSRy7oCU59FMLA5dMwAzWBr6TU2J4XRMkW22zJExRarozwZrPiJ92s9eQp41MSk4xMU5SRjRnxcIiQkFU-GvAgO1Jf/s640/5.png" width="558" /></a></div>
<span style="font-size: large;">上图是 GESHEN 涉略几个主要业务,公司的几次收购后业务变得更加多元</span><span style="font-size: large;">化,同时也可以扩张本身的客户群体以刺激营业额增长。</span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiL178tqPnYQAermElJvuwNSf_ZeElAZEPvth7gBjpKx8V29DyQOu6LJPXAH5fp6ygauyA1e3KtiKGtQNUp4MU1hOQF_bi1w1__YvZ1DiyCcMHlZjuMbP_-ClMTH2JJdYIGgGlINyIWivXN/s1600/66666.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="384" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiL178tqPnYQAermElJvuwNSf_ZeElAZEPvth7gBjpKx8V29DyQOu6LJPXAH5fp6ygauyA1e3KtiKGtQNUp4MU1hOQF_bi1w1__YvZ1DiyCcMHlZjuMbP_-ClMTH2JJdYIGgGlINyIWivXN/s640/66666.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<span style="font-size: large;">过去两年在经历了【侵略性】的扩张之后,营业额在 FY16 有了突破性的</span><span style="font-size: large;">成长。营业额从FY15的RM137.33 mil 进步到FY16的 RM185.523 mil,全年营业额增加了35%。而全年盈利YOY增加19%, RM15.157 mil也是历史新高。</span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-size: large;">不过 GESHEN 的盈利增加得比营业额少,这书要是因为16Q1 - Q3几个季度的美金下滑而导致Net Profit Margin下滑。Net Profit Margin从FY15的9.3%下滑变成8.2%。</span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgil59EnM892GC-kOgq_R6g3DoFZqLu4C-ViSlPidjf8rPXIVtRJpFO3V8rW_3LBa2UG7WkN4c47sTh1Gc8gBTGXhGRslnaDuLqHTyAUag8pd10SzHEKwSWuk3TSaIvOvFO3zAasQlqY21o/s1600/geshen_revenue.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="356" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgil59EnM892GC-kOgq_R6g3DoFZqLu4C-ViSlPidjf8rPXIVtRJpFO3V8rW_3LBa2UG7WkN4c47sTh1Gc8gBTGXhGRslnaDuLqHTyAUag8pd10SzHEKwSWuk3TSaIvOvFO3zAasQlqY21o/s640/geshen_revenue.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<span style="font-size: large;">最新季度的营业额</span><span style="font-size: large;">突破到 RM55 mil,Net Profit Margin 也再度站上 12.16%以上。不过需要留意的是,公司在最新季度有大约RM3 mil的外汇盈利,因此美金的起伏对公司会有很大的影响。不过FY16的前两个季度的盈利都在RM2 mil以下,未来两个季度要保持成长并不难。</span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEizddNFx7uZVXS0q_mhF7LdsO-daIjGpueKPNhyAR7eAr3x_0XsmIhvDZ7hf0-9JJNUiEX2Fvx6DMERe19oj7VdfQeSwqqfUyFO1ecw7-nRs1x1kVTSDCkoH9-003i-g6dqKXmxwh7skiOV/s1600/56576.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="472" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEizddNFx7uZVXS0q_mhF7LdsO-daIjGpueKPNhyAR7eAr3x_0XsmIhvDZ7hf0-9JJNUiEX2Fvx6DMERe19oj7VdfQeSwqqfUyFO1ecw7-nRs1x1kVTSDCkoH9-003i-g6dqKXmxwh7skiOV/s640/56576.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<span style="font-size: large;">而且 16 年 7 月收购的 Demand Option了贡献了RM17.86 mil的Revenue以及 RM3.425 mil额</span><span style="font-size: large;"> Profit Aftar Tax,假设这个收购案在1月就促成,公司的Profit After Tax是可以从现在的RM15.157 mil提升到RM17.65 mil的。这也意味着FY17的盈利贡献将会非常有看头,FY17要保持全年20%或更高的盈利成长是不难的。</span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg0uWcif4SvImaeCK6FP3z4_OyufNY0LFZf5XpXWgSsok6MUSqZIExgI5ARdUSa7K1c0qHWctbUjuF04yuIqZX7OanVJu_QRFs235ASnDeydUU4GoNcC3XbyJ1j5wcjt7rY3ZOGBySfqTTA/s1600/344.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="408" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg0uWcif4SvImaeCK6FP3z4_OyufNY0LFZf5XpXWgSsok6MUSqZIExgI5ARdUSa7K1c0qHWctbUjuF04yuIqZX7OanVJu_QRFs235ASnDeydUU4GoNcC3XbyJ1j5wcjt7rY3ZOGBySfqTTA/s640/344.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<span style="font-size: large;">FY12 – 15 巨盛都是 Net Cash 公司,但是 FY16 因为大举收购导致公司成为</span><span style="font-size: large;">Net Debt 公司,净负债 = RM41.91 mil。</span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgqGJUaoiugX4bUhgY7Ptl3iTnEYZGFrObp3ddsZyhjOMPXdZIJTkLe6h-2UKQ3xKoxCZjaDxZF5lrbxPQfgjUQdCGJ0CR0LX8XJdu_OKh1X1XzEP9drp5axiUaHDmyHVohHkFoYMaZRnwp/s1600/27.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="188" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgqGJUaoiugX4bUhgY7Ptl3iTnEYZGFrObp3ddsZyhjOMPXdZIJTkLe6h-2UKQ3xKoxCZjaDxZF5lrbxPQfgjUQdCGJ0CR0LX8XJdu_OKh1X1XzEP9drp5axiUaHDmyHVohHkFoYMaZRnwp/s640/27.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<span style="font-size: large;">不过笔者相信这些收购可以为公司带来更高的营业额以及盈利, 因为</span><span style="font-size: large;">GESHEN 在过往 2 年耗资 RM90 mil 收购了同行以及引进新的机械。以现</span><span style="font-size: large;">在每年大约 RM15 mil 的 Net Profit 估算,FY17 – 18 在各种利好因素以及</span><span style="font-size: large;">扩张计划的推动下,FY2017 把全年盈利推高到 RM18 - 20mil 以上应该是大</span><span style="font-size: large;">有可为。</span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-size: large;">此外,GESHEN 主要业务出口到国外,现在美金走高对 GESHEN 也是利好</span><span style="font-size: large;">因素。因此短期半年美金势必会刺激 GESHEN 的盈利走高,FY15Q3的盈</span><span style="font-size: large;">利可以突破历史新高也是归功于美金的走强。假设美金贬值,GESHEN的扩张计划也足以抵消这方面的利空。</span><br />
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<span style="font-size: x-large;">总结:</span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg4DUB1KtShlnKwxuljd-T5Ci-VbP1nfnN5KX7_lOQ7ljGVkRYRZveniZomX614SgqTmC6lX3I72UkU17ECqcq4anBpizJkV5NtavXAat6gjBmnQ3jxhdfjqNVK-08Razx1b21Ck8eedutF/s1600/565656567777777.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="396" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg4DUB1KtShlnKwxuljd-T5Ci-VbP1nfnN5KX7_lOQ7ljGVkRYRZveniZomX614SgqTmC6lX3I72UkU17ECqcq4anBpizJkV5NtavXAat6gjBmnQ3jxhdfjqNVK-08Razx1b21Ck8eedutF/s640/565656567777777.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<span style="font-size: large;">公司在Q3的Prospect提到 FY16 已经耗资 RM11.2 mil 在 CAPEX 上,而且未来还有</span><span style="font-size: large;">RM33.2 mil 将会使用在增加产线上。因此公司对 FY17 的展望保持乐</span><span style="font-size: large;">观,整体的获利都会在 CAPEX 的推动下有所提升。</span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-size: large;">GESHEN在最季度说他们收购了地皮以及建筑物,越南的子公司已经在Q4完成。因此预计所以的扩张完成后,新的工厂将会在未来贡献更多的盈利。</span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjSSxia3FHJKGcORPVrTFDBJf_xnyy3RcYDjXihX6zeSIW8vvWCruGo8VySbVWBFgJkVNnC8XFIl_j3SjTpacsSYSLDg3bdfaov-nuS7HrZZ-tq_64y-UiWNJ6xoUl-6GKmJbE9KZom015Y/s1600/8787.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="232" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjSSxia3FHJKGcORPVrTFDBJf_xnyy3RcYDjXihX6zeSIW8vvWCruGo8VySbVWBFgJkVNnC8XFIl_j3SjTpacsSYSLDg3bdfaov-nuS7HrZZ-tq_64y-UiWNJ6xoUl-6GKmJbE9KZom015Y/s640/8787.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<span style="font-size: large;">而且公司也注重在科技以及自动化,借此可以抵消最低薪金的影响。不过公司也出了ESOS回馈员工,这意味这公司的ESOS开销将会减低盈利。管理层表示,这是为了走更长远的。其实用句简单的说法,公司赚了那么多钱,管理层之前也花了那么多精力以及时间经营,现在用ESOS奖励大家也是应该的嘛。</span><br />
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<b><span style="font-size: x-large;">优势:</span></b><br />
<br />
<ul>
<li><span style="font-size: large;"><b>过去 2 年耗资超过 RM75 mil 投入 CAPEX 以及收购,未来 2 年将会 GESHEN 丰收的季节。</b></span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: large;"><b>美金走高将会推高 Profit Margin</b></span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: large;"><b>距离股价巅峰还有 45%的空间,只要盈利持续稳定上涨,股价</b></span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: large;"><b>有望在未来 1 – 2 年回到巅峰</b></span></li>
</ul>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-size: x-large;"><b>风险:</b></span><br />
<br />
<ul>
<li><span style="font-size: large;"><b>成交量太低,股价容易被操控</b></span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: large;"><b>股价接近 52 周新高,有下探的风险</b></span></li>
</ul>
<div>
<span style="font-size: large;">2015年12月22日股价巅峰曾经去到RM2.97,闭市新高 = RM2.87。 现在公司的盈利全年新高,未来又会继续成长,长期来说GESHEN是有看头的。</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><b><br /></b></span></div>
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<span style="color: red; font-size: x-large;"><b>不过</b><b><div style="display: inline !important;">
这家公司曾经因为盈利涨幅不如预期,在 2016 年 2 月26日在一天内暴跌 50 仙(RM2.55 to RM2.05),因此大家也要考虑</div>
</b><b><div style="display: inline !important;">
好当中的风险。</div>
</b></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-size: x-large;"><b>以上资料分析纯属分享,买卖自负。任何买卖的亏损,恕不负责。</b></span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-size: large;">Harryt30</span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;">16.20p.m.</span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;">2017.04.08</span>H@rryhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05027352948099378525noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1963488445754456476.post-89360418900849179602017-04-04T10:35:00.002+08:002017-04-04T10:42:07.451+08:001395.【科技番薯】- 鸿海领航,PIE (7095) 重返光荣之路,未来两年看涨!<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg0y1VlxaqbcswpbU2Z9bPw9LhRmn9xcEbXrpt0AzrybH1b7_07K4RkEeuImHnmUY0YM-6omBi5R9xm6SmkpsO-W_C8V8NJBWQ2kBhwQEDVxGpf89z9zqSmD6C5Qy7ER0KenODLxoiPObMG/s1600/432.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-size: large;"><img border="0" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg0y1VlxaqbcswpbU2Z9bPw9LhRmn9xcEbXrpt0AzrybH1b7_07K4RkEeuImHnmUY0YM-6omBi5R9xm6SmkpsO-W_C8V8NJBWQ2kBhwQEDVxGpf89z9zqSmD6C5Qy7ER0KenODLxoiPObMG/s640/432.png" width="458" /></span></a></div>
<span style="font-size: large;"> <span style="line-height: 107%;">PIE (7095) </span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">广宇科技素来有【金番薯】的外号,这家公司是一家净现金公司,而且派息也非常大方。</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">PIE</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">的主要业经营项目是电子讯号线缆,连接器,印刷电路板</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="line-height: 107%;"> </span><span style="line-height: 107%;">(PCB) </span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">以及精密模具等电子组件以及电脑周边产品开发,制造以及销售等。</span></span><br />
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">现在</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">PIE</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">的两个主要部门如下:</span><span style="line-height: 107%;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<li><span style="font-size: large;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">电子零件制造以及组装部门</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="line-height: 107%;"> </span><span style="line-height: 107%;">– Manufacturing</span></span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: large;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">消费性电子产品以及电脑周边产品销售部门</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="line-height: 107%;"> </span><span style="line-height: 107%;">– Trading</span></span></li>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span style="line-height: 107%;">PIE</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">是台资公司,母公司是</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">Pan Global Holding Holding Co.Ltd, </span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">台湾廣宇</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="line-height: 107%;"> </span><span style="line-height: 107%;">(2823) </span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">。而台湾的鸿海</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">持有台湾廣宇高达</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">21%</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">的股权,意味着这两家公司幕后的大老板都是郭台铭。</span><span style="line-height: 107%;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">用最直白的说法:</span><span style="line-height: 107%;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: x-large;"><b><i><span style="line-height: 107%;">“</span></i><i><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">广宇</span></i><i><span style="line-height: 107%;"> (2823) </span></i><i><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">好不好就会直接影响到鸿海</span></i><i><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">的表现</span></i></b></span><i><span style="line-height: 107%;"><span style="font-size: x-large;"><b>”</b></span><span style="font-size: large;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></i></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">众所周知,</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="line-height: 107%;">鸿海</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">在去年收购了日本的</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">SHARP</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">,因此笔者在台湾的报导里看到,</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">2016</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">年</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">8</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">月份,台湾的</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">SHARP</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">的电视合约已经给了广宇。跟着这条线推敲的话,很可能全部</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">(</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">台湾以外</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">)SHARP</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">的电视制造合约都会交给广宇,毕竟鸿海现在是</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">SHARP</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">夏普的娘家。</span></span><b><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgOk1Kmvw6oLwY2kROV4TYyQGZfP4cpMSA91NdY6eYU7tH6iztL8mj6bruGEhAaC4Q9vjwC4vfhJt1rwePGWH0bA3CX0cCmPGaHENAllNQWMXfW9C8565OAyBPmlYtmUpmxtK9JY0i0JKJD/s1600/3232.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="414" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgOk1Kmvw6oLwY2kROV4TYyQGZfP4cpMSA91NdY6eYU7tH6iztL8mj6bruGEhAaC4Q9vjwC4vfhJt1rwePGWH0bA3CX0cCmPGaHENAllNQWMXfW9C8565OAyBPmlYtmUpmxtK9JY0i0JKJD/s640/3232.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<span style="font-size: large;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">所以大家看看台湾广宇科技的股价从</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">2015</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">年</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">8</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">月底部的</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">9.85</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">台币,上涨到</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">29.8</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">台币,最高曾经去到了</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">32.65</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">,</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">1</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">年半里上涨了</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">200%</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">。</span></span><br />
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">什么原因导致广宇科技的股价上涨了</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">200%</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">,</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="line-height: 107%;"> </span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">上图给了你最好的解释。台湾广宇的</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">EPS</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">从</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">2015</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">年的</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">0.55</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">台币上涨到</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">2016</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">年的</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">2.14</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">台币,相等于</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">YOY</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">上涨了</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">289.09%</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">。</span></span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgDp0eSWxAYjn2WAS-CSwga-tf7_iusTb-CRVENetwIbUhF2XfFXYskVReUltz2bApVUQ8vhVvPHOaa3ErBBznrbWiVw47yl_PfAhtHnc7QcQrE3LZ5hwe9zdLEmQwstk9Czky_r26eaPkC/s1600/5454.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="174" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgDp0eSWxAYjn2WAS-CSwga-tf7_iusTb-CRVENetwIbUhF2XfFXYskVReUltz2bApVUQ8vhVvPHOaa3ErBBznrbWiVw47yl_PfAhtHnc7QcQrE3LZ5hwe9zdLEmQwstk9Czky_r26eaPkC/s640/5454.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<span style="font-size: large;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">从上图我们可以看到广宇科技在</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">2012 – 2015</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">年的</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">EPS</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">都介于</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">0.40 – 0.8</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">之间,一切的改变都是因为鸿海收购了</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">SHARP</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">。鸿海</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">2017</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">年的目标是要在中国大陆市场销售</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">1,000</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">万台</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">SHARP</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">的电视,相信这可以刺激环宇科技在</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">2017</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">年的业务盈利继续走高。说了那么多,到底这跟马来西亚的</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">PIE (7095) </span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">又有什么关系呢?</span></span><br />
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">以上的资料是来自于台湾广宇科技的</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">Annual Report</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">,马来西亚一共贡献了</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">1,818 mil</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">台币的营业额,相当于</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">RM263 mil (MYR/NTD = 6.9)
</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">。大马</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">PIE</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">在</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">FY16</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">的营业额是</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">RM579.285, </span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">意味着</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">45%</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">的营业额是来自于台湾的母公司。按年计算,大马的营业额贡献从</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">2,028</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">下滑到</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">1,818 mil</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">台币,按年下跌了</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">10.8%</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">。</span></span><br />
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">而大马</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">PIE</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">的业务在</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">FY16</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">也下滑了</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">12.53%</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">,这跟台湾</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">ANNUAL Report</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">的数据是非常吻合的。</span></span><br />
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">笔者收集了马来西亚以及台湾广宇科技最近</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">8</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">个季度的营业额做比较,以下是图表</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">:</span></span><br />
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">上图的数据显示了当台湾业营业额走高的时候,大马的</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">PIE</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">也是如此,尤其是</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">16Q4, </span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">两家公司都交出了非常亮眼的盈利。因此从以上各种数据推断,台湾环宇业绩的好坏会直接影响到马来西亚。</span></span><br />
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">台湾的上市公司每个月都会公布他们公司的营业额,台湾广宇在</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">1</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">月以及</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">2</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">月的营业额分别上涨了</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">30.54%</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">以及</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">93.4%</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">,累计营业额按年上涨了</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">57.1%</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">。</span></span><br />
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">过往的</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">1</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">月</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">-3</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">月份都是淡季,但是</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">2</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">月份</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">17.03</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">亿台币的营业额是非常亮眼的。这很明显都是来自于</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">SHARP</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">的贡献,因此预计</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">3</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">月份的营业额也会持续进步。那么大马</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">PIE (7905) </span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">在</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">17Q1</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">的业绩会如何,大家应该心里有数。此外,</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">SHARP</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">在连续</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">9</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">个季度亏损之后,最新季度在鸿海的努力下终于转亏为盈。</span> </span><br />
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">鸿海旗下有许多的公司,台湾媒体都称之为鸿家军。其中一家值得注意的就是</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">ESON – </span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">乙盛,这家公司在马来西亚分别在</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">BATU PAHAT</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">以及</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">BANGI</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">设立了两家工厂。</span></span><br />
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<span style="font-size: large;">上图就是ESON在BANGI的厂房。</span><br />
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span style="line-height: 107%;">ESON</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">其中一个主要业务就是做电视的边框,因此身为鸿家军的一员,</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">ESON</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">在鸿海收购了</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">SHARP</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">之后也获得不菲的电视边框合约。因此马来西亚的【</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">ESON + PIE</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">】将会是完美的搭配,两家公司在一起乘【</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">SHARP</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">】而上,业绩有望保持高速成长。</span></span><b><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
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<b><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;"><a href="https://money.udn.com/money/story/5612/2005725">https://money.udn.com/money/story/5612/2005725</a><o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
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<b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">台湾的广宇科技在去年也是首家获得</span></b><b><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">SHARP</span></b><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">合约的公司,详情可以参考以上的链接。</span></b><b><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">解释完鸿海,台湾广宇科技以及</span><span style="font-family: "calibri" , sans-serif; line-height: 107%;">ESON</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">之后,我就回到马来西亚看看</span><span style="font-family: "calibri" , sans-serif; line-height: 107%;">PIE</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">的基本面。</span><span style="font-family: "calibri" , sans-serif; line-height: 107%;">PIE</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">的业绩经历</span><span style="font-family: "calibri" , sans-serif; line-height: 107%;">3</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">个季度下滑之后,盈利终于在最新季度的奋起直追,踏上了复苏之路。</span></span><br />
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">营业额以及盈利进步的主要原因是因为</span><span style="font-family: "calibri" , sans-serif; line-height: 107%;">SHARP</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">的贡献以及美金走高。最新季度的美金汇率大约是</span><span style="font-family: "calibri" , sans-serif; line-height: 107%;">4.44</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">,处于近</span><span style="font-family: "calibri" , sans-serif; line-height: 107%;">10</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">年新高,因此盈利将会非常不错。此外,</span><span style="font-family: "calibri" , sans-serif; line-height: 107%;">16Q1 – Q3</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">的盈利只有</span><span style="font-family: "calibri" , sans-serif; line-height: 107%;">RM2.1 – 6.1 mil</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">左右,未来</span><span style="font-family: "calibri" , sans-serif; line-height: 107%;">3</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">个季度要保持进步是非常容易的事情。</span></span><br />
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">以上是</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">PIE</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">的现金以及</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">Borrowing</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">图表,</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">PIE</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">在</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">FY16</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">清还了所有的债务,现在处于</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">Net Cash = RM103.892 mil</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">。公司过往的派息都超过</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">50%</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">,因此昨天公布</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="line-height: 107%;"> </span><span style="line-height: 107%;">5 </span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">分的股息。</span></span><br />
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">值得一提的是,公司在过去</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">2</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">年一共耗资</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">RM50.292 mil</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">买进</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">PPE, </span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">这相等于过去两年</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">58.5%</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">的净利。</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">PIE</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">过去两年积极买进新机器以及扩张有可能就是为了等待</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">SHARP</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">的合约大展拳脚。</span><span style="line-height: 107%;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span style="line-height: 107%;">PIE</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">的股价在</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">16</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">年</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">4</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">月</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">13</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">日曾经冲击</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">RM2.82</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">的新高,闭市最高价格是</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">RM2.72. </span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">之后因为盈利下滑,股价一度下滑到</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">RM1.67. </span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">在横摆了几个月后,股价在</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">1</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">月</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">12</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">日吹起了反攻的号角,</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">昨天成交量3</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">.92 mil</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">,是这6个月来的新高。在各大科技股都爆发的情况下,PIE是否可以顺着趋势而上呢??</span></span></div>
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<b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; font-size: 28.0pt; line-height: 107%;">总结:</span></b><b><span style="font-size: 28.0pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">结合了各种利好因素,</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">PIE</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">的前景是非常亮眼的。媒体在</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">3</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">月</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">7</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">号曾经报导</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">PIE</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">正在洽谈着</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">4</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">份新的合约。其中一份跟跨国大公司的合约已经接近尾声,上个星期</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">KENANGA</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">把</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">PIE</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">的目标价格从</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">RM2.60</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">调高到</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">RM2.87</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">,很可能是这笔合约已经拿到手,因此</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">KENANGA</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">调高价格。</span><span style="line-height: 107%;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">此外,今天</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">PIE</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">的管理层接收</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">THE EDGE</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">采访,文章提到</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">PIE</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">今年最保守都会有</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">15%</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">的营业额以及盈利成长。因此股价就因为这份报导吸引了许多散户并导致股价暴涨。</span><span style="line-height: 107%;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">以下是推动</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">PIE</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">坐高的各种利好因素:</span></b><span style="line-height: 107%;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<li><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="line-height: 107%;">SHARP</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">的新合约将会刺激</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">FY17</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">的营业额</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">+</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">盈利走高</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">+ </span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">符合科技趋势</span></span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="line-height: 107%;">4</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">分新的合约在洽谈中,很大机会获得新的合约</span></span></li>
<li><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;"><span style="font-size: large;">超于同行的赚幅以及获得母公司鸿海的强力支持,技术上就优于他人</span></span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="line-height: 107%;">RM103.892 mil</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">的净现金,派息超过</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">50%</span></span></li>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><b>风险:</b></span></div>
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<li><span style="font-size: large;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">上个季度有高达</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">6.386 mil</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">的外汇盈利,美金跌破</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">RM4.30</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">将会导致外汇亏损。初步估计,美金每跌</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">10</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">分,大概会导致</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">RM2 mil</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">的外汇亏损。</span></span></li>
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<b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="color: red; font-family: "simsun"; font-size: 20.0pt; line-height: 107%;">以上资料分析纯属教育用途,买卖自负。任何买卖的亏损,恕不负责。</span></b><b><span style="color: red; font-size: 20.0pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
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<b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; font-size: 14pt; line-height: 19.9733px;">Harryt30</span></b></div>
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<b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; font-size: 14pt; line-height: 19.9733px;">10.35p.m.</span></b></div>
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<b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; font-size: 14pt; line-height: 19.9733px;">2017.04.04</span></b></div>
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H@rryhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05027352948099378525noreply@blogger.com7tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1963488445754456476.post-54980877495257041882017-03-26T23:38:00.000+08:002017-03-26T23:38:30.226+08:001394.【绝世霸龙】- SUPERLN(7235) 派发6仙Special Dividend,营业额+盈利新高!<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEglkY670G0yC6XgF_Shnmn_J6M_pMYwEwJ8cNqKFUhupgEvh5uC9moHPaKxZSIhuc8vX-tA4iL3Ehr4Q7dYb3u7HW1g2WjBVBaay2QhP5Q94SzbIS60q9XPn2BjjD_agdtaT9ZTpfII3c6_/s1600/SUPER1.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEglkY670G0yC6XgF_Shnmn_J6M_pMYwEwJ8cNqKFUhupgEvh5uC9moHPaKxZSIhuc8vX-tA4iL3Ehr4Q7dYb3u7HW1g2WjBVBaay2QhP5Q94SzbIS60q9XPn2BjjD_agdtaT9ZTpfII3c6_/s640/SUPER1.jpg" width="640" /></a></div>
<span style="font-size: large;">笔者一直有跟踪SUPERLN(7235)这家公司,这家公司稳定的成长以及派息深受价值投资者的喜爱。最新季度公布的业绩,盈利以及股息都突破了历史新高。而且派发了6仙的特别股息,比去年同期进步了33.3%。全年的派息从FY16的9仙进步到11仙,管理层在股东大会表明赚多派多的政策果然应验了。</span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhKwHIUMGDyqxZ24wzEDHOmV0OZoI52hZDdzCK39s6qtHDnfn2f__J1zzUC9BM5LDxevHR8Nk7Suj2Wg8oxLOu2a-Pi4e5zwq9sInFp1-WBAx8c0TXktW077B5Pg1a5wbzVmCgWXU_O5XlB/s1600/SUPER2.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="346" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhKwHIUMGDyqxZ24wzEDHOmV0OZoI52hZDdzCK39s6qtHDnfn2f__J1zzUC9BM5LDxevHR8Nk7Suj2Wg8oxLOu2a-Pi4e5zwq9sInFp1-WBAx8c0TXktW077B5Pg1a5wbzVmCgWXU_O5XlB/s640/SUPER2.jpg" width="640" /></a></div>
<span style="font-size: large;">从上图可以看到SUPERLN去年在Q3派发了4分的特别股息,因此笔者预计今年盈利突破新高,股息自然会水涨船高。3个季度派发了11仙的股息已经是历史新高,假设下个季度的盈利继续成长下去,不知道SUPERLN会不会打破Q4不派息的传统呢?</span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-size: large;">营业额RM25.8 mil以及Net Profit = RM6.253 mil,这让SUPERLN的Net Profit Margin上升到24.24%的新高。季度报告里说到,盈利成长是因为出口销售额增加以及Other Income增加。Other Income预计是外汇盈利以及银行利息所贡献,美金汇率平均4.40以上是SUPERLN盈利破新高的主因之一,因为公司的业务接近70%是出口。</span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjlMba-Xq_ZraJPkVX9UIOyOoMmZR06aU_MUFBC8ZKWGrynkuC4t_JaugzGXrV5y8VBHo0ZGAK8dJHjZJ2XU03hXHJ78FUqTUMs6PZ3LsT86n_fkQw2JMMA3ZQsCPRJ9jIlsE56szt96V28/s1600/SUPER3.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="380" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjlMba-Xq_ZraJPkVX9UIOyOoMmZR06aU_MUFBC8ZKWGrynkuC4t_JaugzGXrV5y8VBHo0ZGAK8dJHjZJ2XU03hXHJ78FUqTUMs6PZ3LsT86n_fkQw2JMMA3ZQsCPRJ9jIlsE56szt96V28/s640/SUPER3.jpg" width="640" /></a></div>
<span style="font-size: large;">从15Q2开始,SUPERLN的盈利已经连续成长了10个季度,现在的全年盈利已经处于RM21.047 mil的新高,全年盈利比上个季度上升10%以上。【盈利决定股价】,这是否意味着股价也可以上涨10%以上呢,就让市场决定吧。</span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-size: large;">1月份笔者曾经打电话给SUPERLN,询问新的Warehouse是否已经完成,工作人员回答YES! 因此17Q4新的Warehouse将会开始为公司贡献,预计可以增加公司的营业额+盈利。此外,管理层在接受Busy Weekly采访时说到,Q3以及Q4一向以来是公司的旺季。笔者有朋友是做冷气的,2-4月因为天气炎热所以安装冷气的人也比较多。因此SUPERLN在下个季度要继续保持成长并非难事。</span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-size: large;">管理层表示会在FY18继续投入RM10 mil买进新的机器增加产能,这将会刺激SUPERLN未来的营业额持续成长。</span><br />
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<span style="font-size: x-large;">总结:</span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-size: large;">以下几个因素形成了SUPERLN强劲的基本面:</span><br />
<br />
<ul>
<li><span style="font-size: large;">Net Cash Position = RM29.417 mil。</span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: large;">FY17派发11仙股息,其中包括6仙特别股息</span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: large;">新Warehouse完工,17Q4开始贡献盈利</span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: large;">FY18会引进新机器增加产能</span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: large;">美金汇率保持在4.40以上对SUPERLN是有益的</span></li>
</ul>
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<span style="font-size: large;">长期而言,只要SUPERLN盈利保持成长,这将会是一家又吃又捞的优质公司。高股息以及资金增长两不误,持有了可以安枕无忧。</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">以上纯属分享,买卖请自负。</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">Harryt30</span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;">11.40p.m.</span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;">2017.03.26</span>H@rryhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05027352948099378525noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1963488445754456476.post-7403125714325003402017-03-15T15:05:00.003+08:002017-03-15T15:06:41.540+08:001393.【寿司皇者】- INARI (0166) 业绩突破新高,BROADCOM引领涨潮!<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
<span style="font-size: large;">INARI(0166)是大马科技板块市值最大的科技股,市值 = RM3,766 Mil. 股价在3月8号突破历史新高RM1.99(今年1送1红股),一度上涨到RM2.01。这个星期股价下滑了2-3%,加上今天1.8分的股息刚刚除权,因此股价调整到RM1.91。</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">市值排名前5的分别是:</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">1.INARI</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">2.UNISEM</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">3.MPI</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">4.GTRONIC</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">5.JCY</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">而股价涨幅排名如下: - 以下是3月15日12.30休市的价格</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">1.MPI,RM10.14, +36.84%</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">2.GTRONIC, RM4.74, +36.21% </span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">3.JCY, RM0.655, +33.67%</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">4.UNISEM, RM3.00, + 27.12%</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">5. INARI, RM1.91, + 15.06%</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">5家公司的股价平均在2017年上涨了29.78%</span><span style="font-size: large;">,UNISEM以及GTRONIC的盈利在最新季度有所下滑,其余3家都获得了质的飞跃。MPI以及INARI的盈利都突破历史新高,而JCY也由亏转盈。今天想要跟大家聊到的就是外号【寿司】的INARI,大家一起研究这家公司近年的发展。</span></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi9FHWqZUxw0pFCDDi7hpelF4lFIM-rZQEyKtfmuO_UQKVAHZTNJWWCOL927LR7fBTOXc0XApGXcr3aLsulB6cx93vamGJWHmgErOpsh6gl-UPIdiKAsFczSLyASEl2Gaw_nCQqQssb2YZI/s1600/32221.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="316" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi9FHWqZUxw0pFCDDi7hpelF4lFIM-rZQEyKtfmuO_UQKVAHZTNJWWCOL927LR7fBTOXc0XApGXcr3aLsulB6cx93vamGJWHmgErOpsh6gl-UPIdiKAsFczSLyASEl2Gaw_nCQqQssb2YZI/s640/32221.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span style="line-height: 107%;">INARI (0116) 最新季度的</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">盈利突破了历史新高,但是营业额却比上个季度下滑了RM6 mil。这主要是因为有有</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">RM23.1 mil</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">的外汇盈利以及</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">RM5.596 mil</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">的</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">Grant Income</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">,</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">Gross Profit = RM56.643
mil</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">比去年的</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">RM63.306 mil</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">低了</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">10.5%</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">。</span><span style="line-height: 107%;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;"><br /></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">不过之前美金走低的时候,公司也面临了外汇亏损。所以现在美金处于高位,INARI有外汇盈利是必然的。</span></span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; font-size: large; line-height: 107%;">而且</span><span style="font-size: large; line-height: 107%;">16Q3</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; font-size: large; line-height: 107%;">的业绩以及盈利是</span><span style="font-size: large; line-height: 107%;">11</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; font-size: large; line-height: 107%;">个季度里最低的,其中一个原因是因为美金下滑。因此未来两个季度(17Q3 & Q4)要保持</span><span style="font-size: large; line-height: 107%;">YOY</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; font-size: large; line-height: 107%;">成长应该不成问题:</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;"><br /></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">这个季度</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">(1</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">月</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="line-height: 107%;"> </span><span style="line-height: 107%;">– 3</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">月</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">)</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">跟去年同期的差别是:</span><span style="line-height: 107%;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<li><span style="font-size: large;">现在的<span style="line-height: 107%;">USD/MYR</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">平均是</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">4.45 , </span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">而之前是</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">4.22</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">,</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="line-height: 107%;"> </span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">相差了</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">5%</span></span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: large;">新厂已经完工,预计FY17开始贡献盈利</span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: large;">2016<span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">年全年半导体成长只有</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">1.1%</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">,但是</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">2017</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">年预计会有</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">3.3%</span></span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: large;">科技领域<span style="line-height: 107%;">+</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">美金股是近期的趋势,</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">INARI</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">会有趋势护航</span></span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: large;">Net Cash Positon = RM299 mil<span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">比去年同期进步</span></span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: large;">全球1月半导体销售非常亮眼,预计大马半导体科技股也会获益</span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: large;">APPLE预计在今年Q3会出新的IPHONE, Broadcom的订单预计会走高,间接会刺激INARI的销售。</span></li>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">此外,电子电器产品出口按年增加</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">11.4%, </span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">整体</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">1</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">月出口按年增加了</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">13.6%</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">,是历史上最佳的</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">1</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">月记录。全球的制造业复苏将会带动大马的出口强劲成长,而且中国以及美国对大马的电子产品需求有所上升。因此预计</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">INARI</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">这个季度的盈利不会突破历史新高,但是要保持正面的成长是不难的。</span><span style="line-height: 107%;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">不过需要注意的是,下半年或许会放缓,原因是特朗普有可能会实施保护主义,这将会影响大马出口表现。而且大型商品的价格不断攀升,这也将会增加制造业务的成本。</span></b><b><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
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</w:wrap></v:imagedata></v:shape><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="line-height: 107%;">INARI</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">的全年盈利在这个季度突破历史新高,来到了</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">RM172.367 mil</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">,因此股价在</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">3</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">月</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">2</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">日突破历史新高的</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">RM1.98, </span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">股价一度触碰到</span></span><span style="line-height: 107%;"><span style="font-size: large;">RM2.00.</span><span style="font-size: 14pt; font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">3月2日的成交量27.2 mil股,这个成交量是3个月新高。</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">什么原因导致INARI的股价破新高,上图相信可以为大家解惑。INARI最大的客户是BROADCOM ,因此3月1号BROADCOM公布了新高的盈利, EPS = US3.63。有关注BROADCOM的业绩报告的投资者自然会因为这个好消息而买进INARI.</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">以上是</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">BROADCOM</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">的业务分布图,其中</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">79%</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">是来自</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">Wireless Communications </span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">以及</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">Wired Infrastructure</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">。而</span></span><span style="font-size: large;">BROADCOM</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; font-size: large; line-height: 107%;">主要是负责设计产品,</span><span style="font-size: large; line-height: 107%;">Production</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; font-size: large; line-height: 107%;">都</span><span style="font-size: large; line-height: 107%;">outsource</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; font-size: large; line-height: 107%;">出去。</span><span style="font-size: large; line-height: 107%;">INARI</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; font-size: large; line-height: 107%;">就是负责这两个部分的</span><span style="font-size: large; line-height: 107%;">production</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; font-size: large; line-height: 107%;">,理论上</span><span style="font-size: large; line-height: 107%;">BROADCOM</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; font-size: large; line-height: 107%;">的业绩好,</span><span style="font-size: large; line-height: 107%;">INARI</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; font-size: large; line-height: 107%;">的赢也会好。</span><span style="font-size: large; line-height: 107%;">BROADCOM</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; font-size: large; line-height: 107%;">这次的季度是</span><span style="font-size: large; line-height: 107%;">16</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; font-size: large; line-height: 107%;">年</span><span style="font-size: large; line-height: 107%;">11</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; font-size: large; line-height: 107%;">月</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-size: large; line-height: 107%;"> </span><span style="font-size: large; line-height: 107%;">– 17</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; font-size: large; line-height: 107%;">年</span><span style="font-size: large; line-height: 107%;">1</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; font-size: large; line-height: 107%;">月,结合【大马电子出口数据】</span><span style="font-size: large; line-height: 107%;">+</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; font-size: large; line-height: 107%;">【</span><span style="font-size: large; line-height: 107%;">Broadcom</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; font-size: large; line-height: 107%;">】的数据,我们可以预测到1月份</span><span style="font-size: large; line-height: 107%;">INARI</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; font-size: large; line-height: 107%;">的销售应该很不错。至于2 - 3月份的业绩就要看美金的走势以及大马的出口数据。</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span style="line-height: 107%;">INARI</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">的业务</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">80%</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">来自</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">BROADCOM, </span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">很多人都担心假设</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">BROADCOM</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">不跟</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">INARI</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">合作,</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">INARI</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">要怎么办。</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">BROADCOM</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">的</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">CEO</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">是一位华人,而且还是</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">PENANG</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "simsun"; line-height: 107%;">人。根据槟城科技业的朋友说,INARI的管理层和这位BROADCOM的CEO已经认识以及合作多年,因此短期内应该不会结束合作关系。</span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "simsun"; font-size: x-large;"><b>总结:</b></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "simsun"; font-size: large;"><b>INARI现在的PE = 21.85,科技股的PE 大多是15 - 25之间,而INARI过往今年的PE 介于20 - 25。所以以现在的估值来看,INARI是处于偏高水平。不过16Q3以及Q4的盈利都4个季度的最差的两个季度,美金走高以及半导体销售增长的情况下,INARI未来2 - 3个季度的盈利成长将会非常诱人。</b></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "simsun"; font-size: large;"><b>根据最新的投行分析,CIMB分别给予INARI高达RM2.20的Target Price,而MPI的Target Price则是RM11.00。INARI预计会在17年3月把他们的RF Tester从700架增加到780架以满足他们主要客户的需求。此外,新的部门“INARI OPTICAL TECHNOLOGY"将会注重在Iris Scanners的研发。投行也非常看好这个业务,预计未来会为公司带来新的盈利贡献。</b></span></div>
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H@rryhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05027352948099378525noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1963488445754456476.post-11796563737060221132017-02-28T19:20:00.002+08:002017-02-28T19:39:18.909+08:001392.【北方通源】- TGUAN(7034)盈利YOY盈利下滑4%,全年派发12仙股息!<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
<span style="font-size: large;">TGUAN(7034)公布了16Q4的业绩,Net Profit YOY下跌了4%。因此今天市场立即给予反应,股价下跌了30仙,相等于6.3%。这次的业绩让笔者感到失望,因为之前预计TGUAN在美金走高以及新机械的贡献下,营业额以及盈利应该都要突破历史新高才对。</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">不过业绩真的有那么差吗, 我们仔细看看季度报告里的解释,到底是什么原因导致盈利下滑?</span></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiUMjAbrCZeVXsmr4X7tJLA3IRfHnnXChRXkgtGjhMLSQAWMU0oyX-qSdwyqvDiXLhc2FNFPnyuYPY52yKXzqIGIZ6jgPm8DRxTdYnwRUkr8tyXmHVNHgAKnrv7mFdVaYaTXEWZK5PbCrvc/s1600/1.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="344" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiUMjAbrCZeVXsmr4X7tJLA3IRfHnnXChRXkgtGjhMLSQAWMU0oyX-qSdwyqvDiXLhc2FNFPnyuYPY52yKXzqIGIZ6jgPm8DRxTdYnwRUkr8tyXmHVNHgAKnrv7mFdVaYaTXEWZK5PbCrvc/s640/1.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<span style="font-size: large;">虽然Net Profit下滑了4%,但是这个季度的REVENUE以及Profit Before Tax都是历史新高。</span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjVlw2Pt3pcGMadPILbZJApnmXOC7yth_xVLxg0nkluGUsxKDsRCU_tLLPMCDw49okWMS5nlBNau3JoY0Rd53N4ZRae-3JDGuN_NRMO2Nc07NNj4GdHNPPSo8eCqWDZcjsXiVTICXutc9qK/s1600/3.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="402" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjVlw2Pt3pcGMadPILbZJApnmXOC7yth_xVLxg0nkluGUsxKDsRCU_tLLPMCDw49okWMS5nlBNau3JoY0Rd53N4ZRae-3JDGuN_NRMO2Nc07NNj4GdHNPPSo8eCqWDZcjsXiVTICXutc9qK/s640/3.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<span style="font-size: large;">公司的全年盈利跟上个季度相比下跌了大约RM0.6 mil,因此市场认为TGUAN的成长已经放慢,今股价跌到RM4.46.</span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiLOmRiI4OjHt5nifj7saPZk1WS_-VArfxqVewcBGEFcjwV5Tbg6VmbSK1rQHOh1DtRvc89WXskyLSCWBYTuj24v6h18zN-G7KuJKbvbz27Yuld-wYblkRtGqXOXMyVijQ5BgCvwuZibnd3/s1600/232323232.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="326" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiLOmRiI4OjHt5nifj7saPZk1WS_-VArfxqVewcBGEFcjwV5Tbg6VmbSK1rQHOh1DtRvc89WXskyLSCWBYTuj24v6h18zN-G7KuJKbvbz27Yuld-wYblkRtGqXOXMyVijQ5BgCvwuZibnd3/s640/232323232.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">以全年来看,公司的营业额以及盈利分别上涨了5%以及51%。盈利的幅度进步如此之大,主要原因是公司把低Profit Margin的产线卖掉,过后引进最高端的德国先进Stretch Film机器。因此公司的Profit Margin有了很大的提升,从5.4%进步到FY2016的7.8%.</span></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj7wlYJvsDuwt2iwNQdrIcMW4wyZz7hpEpm5eIYm5OWMg7I3fp4Nn-E3v3fJalgjMVPULF_mWHqdV7Q12aRKp6CvaHvBIGi9eucW3b2lH38qSLCd5D6hVyhalgGIP-VAY2t7fGBVtLgXUwk/s1600/FX.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="544" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj7wlYJvsDuwt2iwNQdrIcMW4wyZz7hpEpm5eIYm5OWMg7I3fp4Nn-E3v3fJalgjMVPULF_mWHqdV7Q12aRKp6CvaHvBIGi9eucW3b2lH38qSLCd5D6hVyhalgGIP-VAY2t7fGBVtLgXUwk/s640/FX.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">虽然美金只是额外的Bonus,公司主要的Operating Profit进步才是王道。管理层曾经在股东大会透入,美金汇率保持在4.05以上将会是对公司有利的价位。</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">17Q1的Quarterly rate截至2月24日是4.45,处于近年新高的位置。因此短期3 - 6个月,TGUAN还是会享有汇率的优势。而未来新的产线陆续开来,就算马币走强,公司也可以保持成长。</span></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjr9Y6h-2HoqWlj565w9RGO5fLxj0CgEr8Uq7tewH-pWZIPiYIX7fF3Ppr8iNrY6Kemu3-snxwx_C9h0lWSzLTjAZCoyDtzrxGzMFUGROHumVoIO_IxUB5ZdpHAsmY5KQzMq0J1ICmpy3Nh/s1600/34.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjr9Y6h-2HoqWlj565w9RGO5fLxj0CgEr8Uq7tewH-pWZIPiYIX7fF3Ppr8iNrY6Kemu3-snxwx_C9h0lWSzLTjAZCoyDtzrxGzMFUGROHumVoIO_IxUB5ZdpHAsmY5KQzMq0J1ICmpy3Nh/s640/34.png" width="438" /></a></div>
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<ul>
<li> <span style="font-size: large;">上图是公司的资产债务表对比,Net Cash Position从上个季度的RM76.32 mil进步到现在的RM95.967 mil。</span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: large;">不过Borrowing从RM36.537 mil上涨到RM56.141 mil,笔者猜测这些借贷用在扩张的用途上。</span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: large;">而Cash增加的原因是因为Trade Payable从RM72.2 mil增加到RM110.95 mil。不过D/E Ratio只有0.13,处于非常健康的水平。</span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: large;">此外,RM3.815 mil的外汇盈利也是这几年里最高的一次,主要归功于美金走高。</span></li>
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<span style="font-size: large;">为什么有RM3.815 mil以及营业额历史新高的情况下,TGUAN的盈利会下滑呢?以下是笔者从季度报告里找到的3个导火线:</span></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjbuu-ngoIupI2e0jUrdoNHcpbe_9Me5V8EY06SOu7dAm3oD_oJ-h6BuTgvWo3IFmfnTgdqgEvUMGNnqls75ZqfC7-8LR_O1yhBfR0TwY4Z2d0XiHKlIT5ZIBDez-of8ncFBOXvMjTO-JQi/s1600/332.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="412" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjbuu-ngoIupI2e0jUrdoNHcpbe_9Me5V8EY06SOu7dAm3oD_oJ-h6BuTgvWo3IFmfnTgdqgEvUMGNnqls75ZqfC7-8LR_O1yhBfR0TwY4Z2d0XiHKlIT5ZIBDez-of8ncFBOXvMjTO-JQi/s640/332.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<span style="font-size: large;">1. COST OF GOOD SOLD增加</span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;">TGUAN的营业额跟比去年上涨了RM19,000,但是COGS却增加了RM1.586 mil。这有可能是因为最低薪金以及原料成本所导致。RESIN的价格走高将会是一个挑战,公司要积极把成本转移给客户。</span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjwcptbg0oBvOcy5evmFmJxis-8tx17jK6heOvGGdow7pFl1szE0XkgshHaht4g0d8B7qz5e75sOWPtd_xbLufLS59OjzXOP3CS1MivABmlLDN_aNo8BWmS44PBSdcF4N0C5bvdGMS-IgYO/s1600/33232323232.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="388" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjwcptbg0oBvOcy5evmFmJxis-8tx17jK6heOvGGdow7pFl1szE0XkgshHaht4g0d8B7qz5e75sOWPtd_xbLufLS59OjzXOP3CS1MivABmlLDN_aNo8BWmS44PBSdcF4N0C5bvdGMS-IgYO/s640/33232323232.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<span style="font-size: large;">2. RM3.374 mil的Impairment loss on receivables</span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;">去年Q4的时候就有0.703 mil的烂账,这个季度竟然提升到RM3.374 mil。这是很严重的问题,股东大会时必须让管理层跟小股东们好好解释。</span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj_hY6PWcRUAgbSRZ-AI5u1t6QyRxWBW0kv9kmnHkIXnKchEp76FpM9P1HUvzih2wGDWnQXWdEwhEzcKMHI-7oePDJYD8SzEuQBeiIA1JdfLiMJ-5IIO0QSZc4MgQSKAwORHnz6e-IOxFOf/s1600/5.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj_hY6PWcRUAgbSRZ-AI5u1t6QyRxWBW0kv9kmnHkIXnKchEp76FpM9P1HUvzih2wGDWnQXWdEwhEzcKMHI-7oePDJYD8SzEuQBeiIA1JdfLiMJ-5IIO0QSZc4MgQSKAwORHnz6e-IOxFOf/s640/5.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">3. F& B部门再度亏损</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">TGUAN的F&B 仿佛有魔咒,连续2年在Q4的时候都会面临亏损。跟上个季度的RM913 K的PBT相比,这个季度的亏损了RM67,000。季度报告的解释是因为有机面部门面临亏损。</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">TGUAN的Organic Noodle业务刚刚开始不久,这笔亏损有可能是因为Initial set up cost所导致。</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: x-large;">总结:</span></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg8KwTlKty4yriAzJz6nHADjg6w05ekWA5h0DWIb1Cs0XTvPb8g65OkT38JbD1dum8LhvFyVMu8TF8JZAkCCbCBdwVvMRAthYO0zaWAAGcsbyKdRCijhxSt0zFz7pubRSrp6dIt4n3pxfqA/s1600/31.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="408" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg8KwTlKty4yriAzJz6nHADjg6w05ekWA5h0DWIb1Cs0XTvPb8g65OkT38JbD1dum8LhvFyVMu8TF8JZAkCCbCBdwVvMRAthYO0zaWAAGcsbyKdRCijhxSt0zFz7pubRSrp6dIt4n3pxfqA/s640/31.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">TGUAN这个季度的盈利真的是让很多投资者失望了,不过重要的还是它未来的前景。管理层在Prospect里透露了不少2017年的扩张计划,他们在2017年将会引进以下的新机器:</span></div>
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<li><span style="font-size: large;">2月刚刚安装好第7架PVC Food Wrap Line,预计第8架将会在FY17Q3安装</span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: large;">第2家Nano Layer Line的将会在下半年的安装,这台机器每年可以贡献RM90 mil的营业额</span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: large;">今年之内会安装一家5-LAYER Blown Film Line</span></li>
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<span style="font-size: large;">除此之外,Organic Noodle在2017年贡献RM20 mil左右的营业额。在Plastic Packaging以及F&B两个部门一起发力的情况下,管理层也有信心FY2017的销售额以及盈利会保持双位数的成长。</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">短期市场因为TGUAN的盈利下滑4%而感到失望,不过再给TGUAN几个季度的时间,笔者预计TGUAN的营业额以及盈利未来会继续突破新高。</span></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjbnznSpUw43dm4Cf9TBQKxdKgX3Xk0aSldA79um3n6gNbAxutv4nkTqfMd6zx5OkXDO5tdoLTUZFDXvqfFaQnC5cgWgYyuGVca6V_thsvD0bYKyu1_W8Klx4P0QK8iVoKEZ4PQjdXMBx79/s1600/321.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="218" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjbnznSpUw43dm4Cf9TBQKxdKgX3Xk0aSldA79um3n6gNbAxutv4nkTqfMd6zx5OkXDO5tdoLTUZFDXvqfFaQnC5cgWgYyuGVca6V_thsvD0bYKyu1_W8Klx4P0QK8iVoKEZ4PQjdXMBx79/s640/321.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<span style="font-size: large;">上图是TGUAN过往10年的成长,过去9年只有在08年风暴以及2014年股价是下跌的。而且2016遇到管理层的时候,他们也说2017年会是更加好的一年。2016年股价涨幅34.29%, 今年2个月的股价涨幅是5.44%,年底会是多少呢,请拭目以待!</span><br />
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<span style="font-size: large;">**机会只留给有耐心以及有准备的人,共勉之。</span></div>
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<span style="color: red; font-size: x-large;"><b>笔者持有以上的公司,因此大家买卖前请自己做好功课。买卖请自负,任何亏损恕不负责。</b></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">Harryt30</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">19.20p.m.</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">2017.02.28</span></div>
H@rryhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05027352948099378525noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1963488445754456476.post-84488711848236373762017-02-25T17:04:00.002+08:002017-02-25T17:07:16.784+08:001391.【无敌奶牛】- HEVEA(5095)单季盈利新高RM28.006 mil,派发2仙股息!<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
<span style="font-size: large;">HEVEA(5075)最新季度的净利润突破新高,达到了RM28.006 mil。不过营业额以及Profit Before Tax跟去年同期相比却分别下滑了4%以及2%<b><i>(待会会跟大家解释)</i></b>。以全年表现来看的话,营业额以及盈利按年进步了7%以及9%,表现中规中矩。</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">HEVEA股票的总数却因为不断有Warrant Convert,从2015年的436.3 mil的股数增加最新的515.17 mil。在短短的1年多的时间,股票数量增加了18%导致EPS不断被Diluted的主因.不过好处是,公司在FY16因为Convert Warrant而流进了RM15.54 mil。截至16Q4,HEVEA已经成为了拥有RM114.82 mil净现金的超级奶牛,因此最近季度派发2仙的新高股息。</span></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiCW-ts0L3OFGtpi1AgYTq_m9ppxpMGfyEzgQ3sEYuuCp-cxa49avAyIMmPhtE5rVSBCrwCK5-ugmipb4blmAO9zckmwyrCs6y3Lataf2lCn3rfxISc23AAV4dCyGzutXk5RAu1ALdsZcXR/s1600/3.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="316" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiCW-ts0L3OFGtpi1AgYTq_m9ppxpMGfyEzgQ3sEYuuCp-cxa49avAyIMmPhtE5rVSBCrwCK5-ugmipb4blmAO9zckmwyrCs6y3Lataf2lCn3rfxISc23AAV4dCyGzutXk5RAu1ALdsZcXR/s640/3.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<span style="font-size: large;">HEVEA的营业额以及盈利在15Q4因为美金步入巅峰而盈利了高潮,不过接下来几个季度因为美金走跌以及季节性导致表现下滑。直到16Q4美金再次起舞,HEVEA的盈利再度迎来了爆发,Net Profit突破历史新高的RM28 mil。</span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgY-OTnK0Nn3zPcAOQz06eOa7vxE14lf4Rt2QVky-AeyJG1ZVLvwNe1kF4hYJy2uffyzFT7u2fqDPrNeLXpBjsLkRQXeRXGAWMRmgehJrC1HZxA_PfN6C6RHlfs9uiNPca5c4yWDL1yeiN8/s1600/1.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgY-OTnK0Nn3zPcAOQz06eOa7vxE14lf4Rt2QVky-AeyJG1ZVLvwNe1kF4hYJy2uffyzFT7u2fqDPrNeLXpBjsLkRQXeRXGAWMRmgehJrC1HZxA_PfN6C6RHlfs9uiNPca5c4yWDL1yeiN8/s640/1.png" width="474" /></a></div>
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<li> <span style="font-size: large;">公司盈利破新高主要是因为这个季度的Tax Payment只给了RM1.555 mil,比去年同期的RM4.602 mil低了不少。</span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: large;">而美金走高为公司带来了RM3.581 mil的外汇盈利,全年的外汇盈利是RM4.723 mil,比去年的RM2.849 mil外汇亏损进步许多。</span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: large;">而Particle Board单个季度的PBT也突破新高RM16.159 mil,比上个季度进步了接近RM5 mil。</span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: large;">RTA Products从RM7.815 mil提升到RM13.402 mil,因此整体的盈利QOQ进步了62.51%。</span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: large;">Cash in hand从上个季度的RM109.79 mil进步到RM130.351 mil,扣除RM15.489 mil的Borrowing, Net cash position = RM114.862 mil,名副其实的超级奶牛。</span></li>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEinK3r1HQRAAZQhybsyGvVTBNEeyFvvrVM26e0QJxP6iBicLhWm0WMk1fQqrFDLUPhcM4Jwr68ahvjQLGIQgJY17NmwMmzppFHdq8O59E7p_r_gFUBuzQWEqCaFQFKlzO-iGWp_RGyoLSIs/s1600/6.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="376" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEinK3r1HQRAAZQhybsyGvVTBNEeyFvvrVM26e0QJxP6iBicLhWm0WMk1fQqrFDLUPhcM4Jwr68ahvjQLGIQgJY17NmwMmzppFHdq8O59E7p_r_gFUBuzQWEqCaFQFKlzO-iGWp_RGyoLSIs/s640/6.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<span style="font-size: large;">HEVEA过往4个季度的总盈利徘徊在RM78 - 81 mil之间,基本上盈利成长是非常有限的。这也是为什么股价至今都不能回到当初的巅峰RM1.70。</span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg7znx9Xg6tpk3MRinUrg09FGqyYmSoWPzkfvcKnWXamHDRdOEMydIG2ANtMuz8j-5TNVE6QWHu0ovCJFNxTg1Kl2kJUHKPxlPKo61NxS1BePFklHk1EWtuSMEXaJbjwovCHnHNZNVrr7eZ/s1600/2222222.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="294" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg7znx9Xg6tpk3MRinUrg09FGqyYmSoWPzkfvcKnWXamHDRdOEMydIG2ANtMuz8j-5TNVE6QWHu0ovCJFNxTg1Kl2kJUHKPxlPKo61NxS1BePFklHk1EWtuSMEXaJbjwovCHnHNZNVrr7eZ/s640/2222222.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<span style="font-size: large;">这个季度的Tax payment减少主要是因为有</span><span style="font-size: large;">unabsorbed capital allowances and unabsorbed investment tax allowance available to offset against taxable statutory income。</span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjjPScUO5dNJJ4ELSaCY57wcQBXbV-jNbMrhc4VRryD6It7wH-hs0Nkrb67n1i4R4dzxIJz75S-MtGOmfwCxvQ0JTI0RrHlaHWOa9Y3x__FVJT3y3CY6Wg6UaeU22RD0mgiTcV17yWBx3Gn/s1600/5555.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="334" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjjPScUO5dNJJ4ELSaCY57wcQBXbV-jNbMrhc4VRryD6It7wH-hs0Nkrb67n1i4R4dzxIJz75S-MtGOmfwCxvQ0JTI0RrHlaHWOa9Y3x__FVJT3y3CY6Wg6UaeU22RD0mgiTcV17yWBx3Gn/s640/5555.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<span style="font-size: large;">看看HEVEA的Interest Income以及外汇盈利,16年相比15年有了跳跃性的成长。利息收入从15年的RM0.754 mil进步到今年的RM3.324 mil,主要是因为公司的现金增加了许多。</span><br />
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<span style="font-size: large;">其次是外汇盈利从去年的外汇亏损成为了RM3.581 mil外汇盈利。这两样收入加起来就高达RM6.9 mil左右,贡献了不少盈利成长给HEVEA。</span><br />
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<span style="font-size: x-large;">总结:</span><br />
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<li><span style="font-size: large;">HEVEA在Q4的营业额下跌了5.8%,主要是因为日本的Peak Season在这个季度来得比较迟。不知道这是否意味这17Q1会不错呢??</span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: large;">而RTA的盈利成长放慢是因为最低薪金导致成本拉高。</span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: large;">整体而言,2017年是充满挑战的一年,公司会透过自动化以及研发新的产品来推高公司的营业额。(每个季度都这么说)</span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: large;">管理层之前在接受访问的时候说到2017年可能会进军新的领域以扩大生意版图,相信很多投资者都很期待最新的更新。</span></li>
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<span style="font-size: large;">不过HEVEA有两点是笔者非常嘉许的,这两点都有可能帮助到HEVEA的发展。</span></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEivaWWJq4Ea2ZmvpuOw7lctcoKeFOar683x0n7gJ-eAoegBCNbRrxY8LxXbA2gM9xM727YZClu1uvi1d9tuJCSjxXAYi1skUqVCWJtnZzd8lgrYipjkO6ntvqkN1wJxBPwF8b5laZgdJC8n/s1600/3333333.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="154" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEivaWWJq4Ea2ZmvpuOw7lctcoKeFOar683x0n7gJ-eAoegBCNbRrxY8LxXbA2gM9xM727YZClu1uvi1d9tuJCSjxXAYi1skUqVCWJtnZzd8lgrYipjkO6ntvqkN1wJxBPwF8b5laZgdJC8n/s640/3333333.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<span style="font-size: large;">相比2015年,HEVEA花费了RM17.8 mil买进PPT,足足比去年多了11.333 mil。因此2017年的产能或许有望继续提升并刺激盈利的增长。</span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh4hvEZluGW9od4qnIHDeob0_yoYzcw-2JmYFL-d_hN-_A2WicRF1IN0Ow_PHyyKs6sL5ycWt12pBrk9EkRMHINNyHTHZuzNoJ-egEKiB-ggua4VWWMXkuKyxEPth50_55MafTo5SziqMxd/s1600/323232.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="408" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh4hvEZluGW9od4qnIHDeob0_yoYzcw-2JmYFL-d_hN-_A2WicRF1IN0Ow_PHyyKs6sL5ycWt12pBrk9EkRMHINNyHTHZuzNoJ-egEKiB-ggua4VWWMXkuKyxEPth50_55MafTo5SziqMxd/s640/323232.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<span style="font-size: large;">而公司的现金债务在5年内来了一个大逆转,从Net Debt = RM105 mil变成现在的Net Cash = RM114.862 mil。管理层可说是功不可没,而大家也看到股息不断在增长着。</span><br />
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<span style="font-size: large;">HEVEA在2016年的表现中规中矩,不过在庞大现金的支撑下,希望2017年会有更好的成长。</span><br />
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<span style="font-size: large;">以上纯属分享,买卖请自负。</span><br />
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<span style="font-size: large;">Harryt30</span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;">17.05p.m</span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;">2017.02.25</span>H@rryhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05027352948099378525noreply@blogger.com2