987.《时间+成长的定律》- “金蛋”股TEOSENG三连暴，历史新高RM2.02，AMBANK投行给于RM2.40的Target Price！

美国可能会提早升息，这导致了昨天美国Dow Jone指数大跌332.78点，1.85%，所以今天大部分亚洲股市也跟着下跌。马股也跟风下跌了11.57点，0.65%。不过有些领域就是可以逆而上，那就是LTKM以及TEOSENG两间家禽股逆市而上，齐齐突破了历史新高。今天看到股价突破新高的时候，相信不少投资者开始在想是不是要套利了？有赚就卖是人之常情，但是我们在仔细研究一下“金蛋”股潮成资本的基本面是否还值得长期持有。

首先，先看看开以下这段文字:

来源：StarBiz

 " ... thanks to the low commodity prices that allow poultry operators the advantage of having cheaper feedstocks and the consistent demand for chicken and eggs irrespective of the state of the economy. Some of the mid-cap poultry stocks have one thing in common – most have huge revenues of a few hundred million ringgit. The rising topline over the last few quarters is due to acquisitions or diversifications, which have led to larger sales volumes. This has caused the earnings of the poultry companies to spike, despite their single-digit margins. Thus, while there are about 3,200 broiler farms producing some 660 million birds last year, observers note that the number of farm companies have been reducing, while the capacity of the companies increases. Another interesting fact is that all the companies are tightly held by the major shareholders - an average of 50% of the shares are held by the controlling shareholders. .... "

最近比较火热的就是家具股以及家禽股了，两个领域都有个“家”人，其实一切纯属巧合。因为各大媒体开始报导家禽领域，所以投资者也开始把目光放在了Teoseng身上。

今天鸡蛋股的成交继昨天突破历史新高之后，成交量从昨天的8,079,100股上涨到 8,437,600股，而且是价量一起上涨，从技术层面来看是利好消息，股价还有上涨的冲力。

在网上找到了Ambank Research paper on Teoseng之后，这可能就是推高“金蛋”股股价的推手之一。AmInvestmentbank是第一家研究Teoseng并给出目标价格的投行，

目标价格是RM2.40.

因为投行第一次的推介，所以“大家伙”才开始进场，也使到股价以及成交量疯狂上涨。Teoseng在3天内上涨了32仙，也就是18.8%，是不是很恐怖？可是现在的PE大约才12.46左右，还是在可以接受的范围之内。

以下是AMBANK RESEARCH的报告：

Teo Seng Capital : An undervalued consumer staple        BUY

We initiate coverage on Teo Seng Capital Bhd (TSC) with a BUY and a fair value of RM2.40/share, based on a fully-diluted PE of 13x on FY15F earnings. TSC is a Shariah-compliant stock. TSC is a well-managed modern poultry farmer focusing primarily on the production of eggs. With a daily output of 3.1mil eggs, it is the third largest egg producer in Malaysia. About one-third of its production is exported to Singapore.

Our investment thesis is built around five key factors:

 (i) Favourable industry dynamics with stable growth of 3%-5% p.a.; 

(ii) As part of regional poultry giant Leong Hup (LH), TSC has first pick of the top layer breeds, which ensures the quality of its eggs. TSC’s earnings CAGR of 35% over the last three years is a testament to its management expertise; 

(iii) Based on FY15F’s earnings of RM61mil, TSC is trading at an attractive PE of 11x, versus the average consumer sector’s PE of 18x. Its high ROE of 23% also stands out;

(iv) Robust earnings growth: We forecast earnings to expand by 16%-26% over FY15F-FY17F, underpinned by production capacity expansion (+400,000 eggs/day p.a. to 5.1mil eggs/day in five years) and steady demand growth. Operating margins are expected to remain intact at about 20%, thanks to soft commodity prices. The addition of biogas plants would also help lower operating costs. 

(v) Expanding dividend payout: Capex of RM70mil would peak in this fiscal year, and thereafter normalise to RM25mil p.a. Given its steady average FCF of RM50mil over FY15F-FY17F and an under-geared balance sheet (net gearing: 24% but would revert to net cash in FY16F), management is targeting to raise its dividend payout from its historical rate of ~20% to 35% within the next three years.

TSC lacks an institutional following as it is presently under-researched. We believe that this would change given improved corporate access, steady earnings and dividend track record.


总结：
还是那句老话,投资是要经得起寂寞以及诱惑的。当初在派发红股之前,我以RM2.10买进,股价一度走高到RM.2.60,20%的纸张盈利我也没有卖出。过后原油价格大跌,全马股市也走跌,Teoseng股价一度下滑到RM1.50,我也默默守着。只要当初一把持不住,现在的结果就会不一样了。

在时间以及成长的陪伴下,我看到了意想不到的回报。鸡蛋的价格去年走高了不少,所以Profit margin提高了不少。假设2015年的赢利会有25%的增长,EPS有机会达到20仙。假设把目标价格定在RM2.40, PE也就12左右。而且我的平均价格也过得去,长期持有对我一点问题都没有。说不定还可以迎来第一支开番股。共勉之。


Harryt30
19.30p.m.
2015.03.11