" ... thanks to the low commodity prices that allow poultry operators the advantage of having cheaper feedstocks and the consistent demand for chicken and eggs irrespective of the state of the economy. Some of the mid-cap poultry stocks have one thing in common – most have huge revenues of a few hundred million ringgit. The rising topline over the last few quarters is due to acquisitions or diversifications, which have led to larger sales volumes. This has caused the earnings of the poultry companies to spike, despite their single-digit margins. Thus, while there are about 3,200 broiler farms producing some 660 million birds last year, observers note that the number of farm companies have been reducing, while the capacity of the companies increases. Another interesting fact is that all the companies are tightly held by the major shareholders - an average of 50% of the shares are held by the controlling shareholders. .... "
在网上找到了Ambank Research paper on Teoseng之后，这可能就是推高“金蛋”股股价的推手之一。AmInvestmentbank是第一家研究Teoseng并给出目标价格的投行，
We initiate coverage on Teo Seng Capital Bhd (TSC) with a BUY and a fair value of RM2.40/share, based on a fully-diluted PE of 13x on FY15F earnings. TSC is a Shariah-compliant stock. TSC is a well-managed modern poultry farmer focusing primarily on the production of eggs. With a daily output of 3.1mil eggs, it is the third largest egg producer in Malaysia. About one-third of its production is exported to Singapore.
Our investment thesis is built around five key factors:
(i) Favourable industry dynamics with stable growth of 3%-5% p.a.;
(ii) As part of regional poultry giant Leong Hup (LH), TSC has first pick of the top layer breeds, which ensures the quality of its eggs. TSC’s earnings CAGR of 35% over the last three years is a testament to its management expertise;
(iii) Based on FY15F’s earnings of RM61mil, TSC is trading at an attractive PE of 11x, versus the average consumer sector’s PE of 18x. Its high ROE of 23% also stands out;
(iv) Robust earnings growth: We forecast earnings to expand by 16%-26% over FY15F-FY17F, underpinned by production capacity expansion (+400,000 eggs/day p.a. to 5.1mil eggs/day in five years) and steady demand growth. Operating margins are expected to remain intact at about 20%, thanks to soft commodity prices. The addition of biogas plants would also help lower operating costs.
(v) Expanding dividend payout: Capex of RM70mil would peak in this fiscal year, and thereafter normalise to RM25mil p.a. Given its steady average FCF of RM50mil over FY15F-FY17F and an under-geared balance sheet (net gearing: 24% but would revert to net cash in FY16F), management is targeting to raise its dividend payout from its historical rate of ~20% to 35% within the next three years.
TSC lacks an institutional following as it is presently under-researched. We believe that this would change given improved corporate access, steady earnings and dividend track record.
在时间以及成长的陪伴下,我看到了意想不到的回报。鸡蛋的价格去年走高了不少,所以Profit margin提高了不少。假设2015年的赢利会有25%的增长,EPS有机会达到20仙。假设把目标价格定在RM2.40, PE也就12左右。而且我的平均价格也过得去,长期持有对我一点问题都没有。说不定还可以迎来第一支开番股。共勉之。