Saturday, January 30, 2016

1215.【银行股的呐喊!!】 - 大马连续下滑两年的银行股,2016年可否突围而出??

自从2015年1月MEGA BANK合并不成之后,笔者就很少注意银行股了。不过去年许多银行纷纷裁员,长期或许可以减少银行的营运成本。而且国家银行上个星期把SRR rate从4.00%调低到了3.50%,这项举动被视为救市行动,也为市场带来了活水。此外,这对银行领域来说也是利好消息。所以今天笔者会列出大马其中12家银行过往的表现,看看它们在猴年可否突围而出。


  • 上图是12家银行股的数据,大家可以看到最近3年,银行股的表现是非常差。2014年平均下跌4.71%以及2015年平均下跌17.75%。
  • 而且上图有7家银行是综合指数成分股,这也难怪综合指数已经连续下滑2年,主要原因之一是被银行股拖累。
  • 不过物极必反,最近油气股开始出现反弹的迹象,那么金融股有没有可能是下一个复苏的领域呢??
  • 首先,CIMB, RHBCAP, AMBANK, AFFIN, MBSB以及OSK的NTA = 净资产都高于股价。 ***OSK应该被列入为产业股,这次就当作是OSK最后一次在银行股里路面了。
  • 12家银行股的平均PE是10.31,当中就有6家的PE低于10,这在过往是很难看到的。
  • 而且这些银行股的平均股息有4%以上,当中MAYBANK, AMBANK以及AFG都非常吸引人。


  • 相比于我在2014年做的数据,12家公司的股价除了PBBANK是坚挺的。其它11家公司的股价全面阵亡,真是惨不忍睹!


到底是什么愿意导致银行股的股价大幅下滑,相信上图的EPS可以告诉我们一些蛛丝马季。银行股的业绩在2014年开始面临退步,来到2015年更是节节败退。而笔者深信盈利决定股价,在业绩不理想的情况下,股价细化也是必然的。

不过有起就会有落,只要下个季度银行股的业绩有复苏的迹象。银行股股说不定会有所做为,我们拭目以待!



Harryt30
21.30p.m.
2016.01.30

3 comments:

  1. Hi, Henry, thanks for your generous sharing. The banking sector is hard to be a star this year with the reasons are (a) Property sector slow down; (b) business sentiment is low; (c) QE effect will boom the stock market (no real impact to citizen).

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hello, thank you for your comment. Actually agreed with your opinion, but my sifu said since Banking cut people. It may reduce operating profit and increase the porfit Margin. Some of the bank value also quite attractive if compare with few years ago. If foreign fund come back, some banking stocks will be their first choice. such as CIMB

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  2. Good points BUT for staff retrenchment, the bank will usually generously offer VSS (voluntary separation scheme) at higher than 3 months salary; meaning it would incur once off payment and reduce the annual profit. Anyhow, it is beneficial in long run.

    I do concur some of the banks are at attractive prices; just the matter of timing for positive news to catch investors' attention.

    with current world QE measure, i opine the world crisis is going to be abnormal than the past experience. The stock market may be up for some years; of course the pattern maybe fluctuating (scary). E.g. glove maker stock price affected by the foreigh currency. What say you?

    ReplyDelete

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